Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Least surprising endorsement ever.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jones TV ad that I think is pretty good.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/undisclosed-deal-guaranteed-roy-moore-180000-a-year-for-part-time-work-at-charity/2017/10/11/5f56679e-a9de-11e7-850e-2bdd1236be5d_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_foundation-1210pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.67bc93d73731

Oops.

Is this likely to have any effect on the race, or will Moore's supporters not care?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News Freedom Poll

Outlier until we get confirmation.

Probably true, but nevertheless....wow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Fox News do their own polls?

They use an outside pollster, usually either Opinion Dynamics or (as in this case) a joint operation by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).  Their poll results have generally been pretty good.  538 gives Fox/Opinion Dynamics a B rating with an R+0.5 bias, and the Anderson Robbins/Shaw combo an A with a D+0.4.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There is no way that poll is even close to be right. It’s doesnt make any sense

Outliers happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Bill Kristol endorses Doug Jones.

https://twitter.com/billkristol/status/920763879390679040

Huh. That’s kinda surprising. I would’ve thought he would just stay quiet.

I would have too, but I guess it's not an earth-shaking surprise.  Kristol has been becoming increasingly disenchanted with the GOP since the ascension of Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can we at least make the title punnier?

I'll try.

OK, the new one is really funny.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moore stands up for another cherished American value: not paying your taxes.

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Very sad to see wannabe war criminal Bill Kristol being given a voice. I hope Jones disavows his endorsement.

If you are expecting left wing partisanship in Alabama, then I have a bridge to sell you in Alaska.

Wow, really? A whole bridge???

fr tho Jones should disavow the endorsement just because no one likes Bill Kristol/ the DC never trump nerds, not because he wants to kill millions of people for his abstract failed notion of American empire.

As others have pointed out, Kristol didn't actually endorse Jones by name; he's just been vociferously anti-Moore.  So there really isn't anything for Jones to disavow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow!  I had given Jones no more than a 10% chance of an upset, but this could change everything.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In other Moore news, he's refusing to debate Jones:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

In the (unlikely IMO) event that the party would consider replacing Moore as the nominee, it's too late:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

I just dropped $500 on Roy Moore on PredictIt. I'm gonna get rich

Nothing personal, but I hope you lose $500.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Predictit right now:

Moore .49 (-.40)
Jones .39 (+.26)
Strange .17 (+.16)

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Other senators joining the chorus for Moore to step aside if the accusations are true.  Toomey, Perdue, Lee, Cornyn, Flake (who already opposed him).

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Gov. Ivey declines to endorse Moore (this was yesterday, so today's reports were not a factor): http://www.alreporter.com/2017/11/09/ivey-declines-endorse-moore/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Decertifying Moore and running a Strange write in campaign seems like the path forward for the GOP.

I have to imagine this could be their move.

It's their only way forward, but it's also their worst way forward. Vote-splitting will kill their chances once and for all.

Is a majority required?  Would there be a runoff if nobody got more than 50%?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, I'm skeptical that anything will change. After Access Hollywood, everyone and their brother in republican politics wanted to make Pence the Presidential nominee, but Trump said he was staying in, pointed to some random Clinton accusers to distract, half-apologized, and threatened to Prosecute Hillary in front of 70,000,000 TV viewers at the 2nd debate. Two weeks later, all was forgotten and forgiven. There are more than two weeks left in this thing, and Alabunga is way more conservative than the country.

I'm not sure the situations are equivalent.  With Trump, the alternative was Hillary Clinton, who was anathema to Trump voters.  Jones is probably a lot more acceptable, or at least not unthinkable, to most AL Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Awful thought:

Moore steps down.
Sessions resigns as AG to run a write-in campaign for his old seat and wins.
Trump appoints a new AG who's not recused from the Russia probe.