GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone have the final Round 1 results for the following four precincts?  (Just total D and total R would be fine).  Thanks in advance.

Cobb TM01 (Terrell Mill)
DeKalb PF (Pleasantdale Road)
Fulton ML05A (Milton 5A)
Fulton SS09A (Sandy Springs 9A)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Actually if you do a breakdown of that Fox poll Delalb seems to be underrepresented and the race breakdown heavier white then EV is so the fact Ossoff is still winning even by less than 1% is good

Also, as others have pointed out, a range of results is normal; if one candidate is up by 2 or 3 points, you'd expect polls to show a range of results from tied or a small lead for the other candidate, up to a lead of several points for the candidate in front.  Poll results that are too close together are suspicious.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One of the amusing things about this race is the overenthusiasm of people placing Ossoff signs (they vastly outnumber Handel signs).  One busy intersection near my office started with one Ossoff sign and one Handel sign.  Then it went to 3 Ossoff signs, then 4, and today 5.  (There's still only one Handel sign.)  This isn't an isolated occurrence.  I've even seen some well outside the district boundary in Forsyth County.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's really to Ossoff's advantage that Sanders did not endorse him.

If he had, Sanders's picture would be in the poster above.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone have the final Round 1 results for the following four precincts?  (Just total D and total R would be fine).  Thanks in advance.

Cobb TM01 (Terrell Mill)
DeKalb PF (Pleasantdale Road)
Fulton ML05A (Milton 5A)
Fulton SS09A (Sandy Springs 9A)

Is this possibly Timber Ridge? Terrell Mill isn't in the CD according to SoS results, and neither is SS09A.

Precinct	GOP	DEM
Timber Ridge 01	781	536
Pleasantdale Road	165	682
ML05A	3	9

Here's a complete list of each precinct's results listed individually on the website (scroll to bottom):
Fulton
Dekalb
Cobb

Thanks!  There were some ballots showing up in the absentee file with TM01 and SS09A precincts, which is why I was wondering about those.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone have the final Round 1 results for the following four precincts?  (Just total D and total R would be fine).  Thanks in advance.

Cobb TM01 (Terrell Mill)
DeKalb PF (Pleasantdale Road)
Fulton ML05A (Milton 5A)
Fulton SS09A (Sandy Springs 9A)

Is this possibly Timber Ridge? Terrell Mill isn't in the CD according to SoS results, and neither is SS09A.

Precinct	GOP	DEM
Timber Ridge 01	781	536
Pleasantdale Road	165	682
ML05A	3	9

Here's a complete list of each precinct's results listed individually on the website (scroll to bottom):
Fulton
Dekalb
Cobb

Thanks!  There were some ballots showing up in the absentee file with TM01 and SS09A precincts, which is why I was wondering about those.

Is that for April or for June? If the former, does it specify whether those are provisional ballots? Both of those precincts border the CD, so I could easily see there being people who got bombarded with ads and even mailers, who thought they were in the district and were allowed to cast provisionals.

From the June 10th April file.  Your explanation is undoubtedly correct.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From the June 10th file.

I guess it could still be the same thing: if I recall correctly, provisional ballots can be cast during early voting as well, so that's probably what it is.

Actually, it was from the April file (too many tabs open).

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Landmark/WSB poll: https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/875844942115074048

Ossoff 49.7 (+0.1)
Handel 48.0 (+0.9)

EDIT: also http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/6th-district-poll-fewer-voters-undecided/534524963

[GeorgiaModerate]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

In-person early voting ended today.  Here are the updated early vote totals (mail plus in-person):

Cobb 27381 (19.5%)
DeKalb 32410 (23.1%)
Fulton 80518 (57.4%)
Total 140309

[GeorgiaModerate]

Getting back to the topic at hand how did EV yesterday breakdown?

I posted it last night after the absentee file updated:

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

In-person early voting ended today.  Here are the updated early vote totals (mail plus in-person):

Cobb 27381 (19.5%)
DeKalb 32410 (23.1%)
Fulton 80518 (57.4%)
Total 140309

[GeorgiaModerate]

Getting back to the topic at hand how did EV yesterday breakdown?

I posted it last night after the absentee file updated:

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

In-person early voting ended today.  Here are the updated early vote totals (mail plus in-person):

Cobb 27381 (19.5%)
DeKalb 32410 (23.1%)
Fulton 80518 (57.4%)
Total 140309

Man putting cobb vs delkab ev in April vs now looks really good for Ossoff

Not necessarily.  DeKalb had more EV locations this time, while Cobb had fewer.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’ve been playing with the early vote data between the first round and the runoff.  Obviously, early voting is way up in the runoff: a 148% increase from the first round!  But this increase isn’t uniform across the district.  I’ve attempted to relate the amount of increase to the party breakdown in round 1 votes.

The charts below show one bubble for each precinct.  The size of the bubble represents the total D+R vote in round 1.  The horizontal axis is the D percentage of the D+R vote in round 1. The vertical axis is the percentage increase of early votes from round 1 to the runoff.  Bubbles in the upper right and lower left quadrants should be good news for Ossoff: upper right is a higher increase in EV for D-leaning precincts, while lower left is a lower increase for R-leaning precincts.  Similarly, the upper left and lower right quadrants should be good for Handel.

Here’s the district-wide plot:



This seems good for Ossoff.  But since DeKalb had more EV locations in the runoff than in the first round, while Cobb had fewer locations, this may not be a fair comparison.  So I looked at each county individually.  Here’s Fulton County:



IMO Fulton looks slightly favorable to Handel. 

DeKalb:



DeKalb, not surprisingly, looks quite good for Ossoff, although since it has mostly D-leaning precincts it's hard to be sure.

Cobb:



Since Cobb has mostly R-leaning precincts, it’s difficult to compare D vs R here.  But the increases here are certainly less than in the other two counties.  However, a lot of this is probably due to the fewer EV locations.

Thoughts?

[GeorgiaModerate]

How about taking the Clinton vs Sanders discussion to a different thread?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver's analysis to suit every mood:


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/876144440196431877

In a later tweet, he says that he likes number 3, 10, 13, and 14 the best.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dumb question, but are they using paper ballots, or software? Is there any chance it could actually be hacked?

We use electronic voting machines.  There is no receipt or paper trail.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another thing about the Georgia voting machines: they use touch screens.  In every election, there are a few reports of machines casting ballots for the wrong candidate.  This invariably turns out to be a calibration problem with the touch screen.  If you see similar reports on Tuesday, don't assume it's a conspiracy to alter the result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff has ran a great campaign and was a very good candidate. Regardless of how this race turns out or your political views you have to admit that.

No, he's a prop-up if he loses. A prop-up who ate money that could've gone to TWO districts that were competitive, one of which had a +20 edge against and moved left by 14!

A handsome looking one, but still a prop-up.

That assumes that the same amount of money would have been available to those other two candidates, which is not necessarily true.  The reasons that Ossoff has raised such an incredible amount include this being  a competitive district, at least based on the 2016 presidential race, and that Ossoff has been an effective and appealing candidate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWIW, this outfit was WAY off in the VA-GOV primary.  Their final poll was Perriello 46, Northam 41, undecided 13.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Did a Twitter search and it seems as if CSP Polling is an outfit that uses Google Consumer Surveys for their polling.

It's not cinyc, is it?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/876522974752493568

Hmm.  I interpreted that as saying that it's going to be another nail-biter.  But who knows.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

He's saying that Handel will do better in the early vote this time around, even if Ossoff wins.

That seems obvious.  There were so many Republican candidates in the first round that many of their voters probably waited until Election Day to make their final choice.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

He's saying that Handel will do better in the early vote this time around, even if Ossoff wins.

That seems obvious.  There were so many Republican candidates in the first round that many of their voters probably waited until Election Day to make their final choice.

They still needed to vote to stop Ossoff.

Right.  But with only Handel opposing him this time, the GOP voters don't need to wait until Election Day, and many of them will vote early instead.  So Handel will do better in the early vote, but worse in E-Day vote. Compared to total R performance in the first round, that is.  She should still lose the early vote and win the E-Day vote.  If either of these is not true, the election will be a rout.

If these factors exactly cancel each other out, and there were no new voters, then obviously Handel will win, since R's got slightly more votes in round 1 (about 4,000 more).  All it would do would shift some of the R voters from Election Day to early voting.  However, there are already thousands of early votes in the runoff by people who did NOT vote in round 1.  If the round 1 voters all vote (and all vote for the same party) then clearly the new voters are the key.  If Ossoff carries them decisively, he wins; if not, he loses.

(Edited to add the bolded text)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump tweets for Handel:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.