Willing to go out on a limb here... (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 10:04:01 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Willing to go out on a limb here... (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Willing to go out on a limb here...  (Read 1346 times)
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,117


« on: October 27, 2016, 02:41:18 PM »

I'm willing to bet he can't even reach 10% as a HIGH. He's likely to get 5% again due to how much of the black community hates the man.

I don't think you could be any FURTHER off.....so Trump is going to do the same with African-Americans as McCain and Romney running against the first black president ever to run for president? Man oh man if you actually think they are going to turn out and vote for Hillary like they did Obama...

You're probably correct that they won't have the enthusiasm for Clinton that they did for Obama, but that's not the only factor.  They also have a huge antipathy for Trump (see today's Q poll of PA, which showed Trump with 1% among AA voters).  It's likely that fewer AA voters will vote for Clinton than for Obama -- but MANY fewer will vote for Trump than they did for McCain or Romney.  The result is that overall AA turnout will be down (which is consistent with some early vote statistics), and Trump's percentage of that lower total will be lower than McCain/Romney.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,117


« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2016, 02:43:29 PM »

Trump black vote

Low end: 16 percent,  could top out at 22-23

The polls indicate a much lower percentage.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,117


« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2016, 02:54:48 PM »

I have this terrible bias in favor of data over feelings and intuition. 

Crossposted from the polling forum:

Crosstabs (again with Trump in 3rd place among blacks):




Trump has 3% of the AA vote in this poll (less even than Johnson, who has 6%).  Clinton has 81%.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.017 seconds with 12 queries.