GeorgiaModerate
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Atlas Superstar
Posts: 33,066
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« on: August 13, 2016, 10:20:18 AM » |
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Barring a major game-changing event, I don't think he can recover. This would be something like a severe Clinton health crisis or major new scandal. The emails are pretty well baked in, and even new revelations from them probably won't hurt her very much.
Whatever you think about Trump as a person, he's certainly running the worst campaign in decades. (I used to think I'd never see a worse candidate than Dukakis, but have been proven wrong.) He has no ground organization, no coherent strategy, and no understanding of general election politics. In contrast, Clinton -- whatever you think about her as a person -- is a smart politician with a very capable and professional organization. Against a good opponent, this would probably be worth a point or two of PV for her. The advantage will be even greater against Trump's non-organization.
Even if Trump suddenly woke up, hired some sharp professionals, and started acting like a mature, sensible candidate, he couldn't make up the ground he's lost. Too much damage has been done. If this did happen (which is highly unlikely given his performance to date), I think the best he could do would be the Romney states + IA, OH, and NV. Not nearly enough to win.
More realistically, if Trump just starts watching his words and the race does tighten a bit, then I think Clinton wins the Obama 2012 states plus NC. If Trump continues saying stupid things on a regular basis, throw in GA, AZ, and NE-02. If he completely implodes (a realistic possibility), then Clinton probably also takes MO, SC, IN, UT, and maybe even more.
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