Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

There was some discussion on election night as to whether Sandra Bullock, who won the HD-40 Democratic primary, was a real person.  She is...but never expected to win: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/not-that-sandra-bullock-candidate-with-famous-name-wins-primary/mEu9EmRFUVcRf9NPwHjtzN/

[GeorgiaModerate]

There was some discussion on election night as to whether Sandra Bullock, who won the HD-40 Democratic primary, was a real person.  She is...but never expected to win: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/not-that-sandra-bullock-candidate-with-famous-name-wins-primary/mEu9EmRFUVcRf9NPwHjtzN/

Update: Bullock has dropped out in favor of Erick Allen, the candidate she defeated in the primary:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Cagle & Kemp continue to fight over which of them loves guns more:

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/new-gun-fight-erupts-race-for-gop-race-for-governor/1OpxqSSMn3fYdeFxMCOeEL/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a transcript of the conversation between Tippins and Cagle: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/read-transcript-secret-recording-cagle-backing-bad-public-policy/JATmPKxlNgBuqGpIPyr2XO/

This story is getting a fair amount of attention in the Atlanta media, and if it holds up through the runoff it might be enough to give Kemp the win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cagle plays defense in an interview with the AJC and Channel 2.

[GeorgiaModerate]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

This map is among the most ridiculous I have seen. This would be a landslide for Abrams, which, even if she wins, won't happen because Georgia is inelastic.

Georgia is relatively inelastic, but I think it's becoming more elastic due to an influx of young, educated people.  I still think the governor race is Lean R at this point, but the map above is within the reasonable range of outcomes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m 100% comfortable calling Kemp the clear favorite now

Yeah, I'm moving it to Lean Kemp.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Were there any exit polls in Georgia during the 2012 Presidential Election? I wanted play around with some numbers and I was thinking that best case scenario for Abrams with black voters would Obama's 2012 performance. His 98-2 showing in the 2008 Exit polls seem a little out of reach for Abrams lol.

There was an exit poll for the Republican primary, but I don't think there was one for the general election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Both GOP candidates are looking awful (Cagle with the scandals and Kemp with the faux right wing hillbilly shotgun nonsense) and Dems have a great standard bearer - and Cook STILL HAS THIS RACE AT SAFE R.

They may be waiting for the runoff before making any adjustment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Hart AgStrong stuff is a nothing-burger that won't stick with voters because its too hard to follow.  Cagle's scandal is much more potent. 

Also, it's something that happened at a distance.  The Cagle scandal is right here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1009411868757241856

[GeorgiaModerate]

New AJC poll shows Cagle leading Kemp 44-43 (more details in the polling subforum).

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC: Black and Democratic voters gain on Republicans in Georgia

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[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

Yes, it's a very big business here.  Atlanta ranks 10th among cities worldwide, and Georgia 7th among U.S. states, in the number of TV shows and films produced.  Source

[GeorgiaModerate]

The HD-28 Republican primary (decided by 67 votes) may need to be redone after the discovery that some voters were given ballots for the wrong district:

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-election-might-voided-after-voters-were-given-wrong-ballots/frxrsJc6KD31Ji1cVlfFxL/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

Not the same at all. The 6th district went from Price +30 to Handel +4. Georgia was only Trump +5 in 2016....

Not really a fair comparison; Price's last election was against a nobody who ran a nonexistent campaign.  But if we go by Cook PVI, the 6th has a bigger Republican lean than does the entire state.  Cook has GA-06 at R+8, and averaging the result for all 14 districts yields a statewide lean of R+5.3.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

I do agree that a runoff will be an uphill battle, but GA-06 does lean less Republican than GA as a whole. Not to mention I don't really think it's debatable that Abrams is a better candidate than Ossoff.

Nope.  Averaging the Cook PVI's for the state (source), the statewide lean is R+5.3, while GA-06 is R+8.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

I do agree that a runoff will be an uphill battle, but GA-06 does lean less Republican than GA as a whole. Not to mention I don't really think it's debatable that Abrams is a better candidate than Ossoff.

Was listening to political rewind on my way home from class (Georgia NPR show) and they were specifically talking about how the 8% jump in D voting could probably get someone over the hump statewide but it probably won’t show itself in the Congressional races just bc there’s not a district that’s less than 8 because of the way they’re drawn

In addition to the R+8 6th, there are three districts at R+9 (1st, 7th, and 12th), so a big enough D wave could in theory turn it into a dummymander.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Republican SoS candidate David Belle Isle is trying to get his runoff opponent, Brad Raffensperger, disqualified: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-gop-secretary-state-candidate-seeks-rival-disqualification/BWi2EkPCwwRFTqIZHkeXrL/.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's going to be interesting to watch the runoff winner trying to pivot away from the primary craziness for the general election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Academy Award for Best Actor goes to.....

https://youtu.be/rtRYWCYVuxY

LOL at words coming out of his own mouth being "fake news"

WHAT IS HE DOING?! Why? This makes no sense!
Kemp was positioning himself as the Firebrand before the primary and now, Cagle was suppost to be the moderate statesmen. Why is he doing this? Why is he discarding the brand he has made to appeal to the suburbs? The only reason must be hes down, but this will just get rid of the voters who didnt like Kemp's shotgun and son-in-law to be.

Now that I look at this primary, it is shaping up to be a repeat of the Dem primary. Two different candidates spar, one paints themself as the moderate, the other as the firethrower, then the moderate changes positions to be the firethrower and make the previous firethrower the moderate. Im thinking Kemp is gonna win this.

I'm leaning that way too.  There's almost a sense of desperation coming from Cagle at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Before all the tape stuff came out, I thought Cagle was more electable than Kemp, but now the reverse is true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I feel like an idiot for asking this, but I can't remember whether it's Cagle or Kemp who is seen as the un-electable idiot who'd actually give Abrams a good shot at winning.

Brian Kemp

https://youtu.be/4ABRz_epvic

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

I don't see what's so bad about those ads. In fact, they seem pretty good to me. He's running in Georgia. Not NYC, DC, or the Atlas Forum mock election.

A whole lot of Georgia doesn't fit the rural Southern stereotype anymore.