Thus far Obama gets (realistic) expected numbers for MN and (for him) good numbers out of CO. On the other hand he gets relatively weak numbers from OR, MI and PA.
He's not about to lose any of those latter 3 states, or even have any of them turn into an election night nail-biter either. But it does make me wonder if those state's weaker than expected showings are harbingers of last minutes undecided swings to Romney, which might make other swing states very dicey indeed for Obama.
Of course they are. Undecideds broke 75-25% for Kerry. Why wouldn't they break for Romney by the same margin?
It is just as reasonable to ask why *would* they? Generalizing from one sample is extremely tenuous logic. 2004 is not 2012, Kerry is not Romney, and Bush is not Obama.
Eight years ago, three out of four cars on my block were blue. Should we assume the same is true today?
