A Suburban Eden Where the Right Rules

[forsythvoter]

Ironically, I'd be willing to bet Mr. Kaye is now a Democrat or at minimum an Independent. Voters with his profile (transplants from the North, probably fiscally conservative but socially more liberal) were among the first cohort of voters that turned blue in the N Atlanta suburbs in places like Sandy Springs.

[forsythvoter]

Ironically, I'd be willing to bet Mr. Kaye is now a Democrat or at minimum an Independent. Voters with his profile (transplants from the North, probably fiscally conservative but socially more liberal) were among the first cohort of voters that turned blue in the N Atlanta suburbs in places like Sandy Springs.

https://atlantajewishtimes.timesofisrael.com/trump-good-jews-israel-america/

Oh interesting, he's also a neocon. But I think my point about that profile of voters swinging D is very much in play across the Northern Suburbs. Demographics have certainly changed a bit but nowhere near as vote as the vote balance has changed.

[forsythvoter]

What happened in Atlanta is the inevitable end result of "conservative" pro business policies. They attracted large corporations which attracted lots of left leaning transplants.  If Cobb had the demographics of 1994, it would still be red. 

I also think generational turnover is a significant factor. The grandchildren of a lot of the voters in 1994 have now entered the voting-eligible population and we're not voting 75% R like our grandparents were. It's pretty clear in Atlanta that voters younger than 45, whether they are native born or transplants don't vote anywhere near as R as voters 60+, particularly among the white population.

[forsythvoter]

What happened in Atlanta is the inevitable end result of "conservative" pro business policies. They attracted large corporations which attracted lots of left leaning transplants.  If Cobb had the demographics of 1994, it would still be red. 

I also think generational turnover is a significant factor. The grandchildren of a lot of the voters in 1994 have now entered the voting-eligible population and we're not voting 75% R like our grandparents were. It's pretty clear in Atlanta that voters younger than 45, whether they are native born or transplants don't vote anywhere near as R as voters 60+, particularly among the white population.

except that hasn't happened everywhere.

I actually think it's happened in many other ancestrally D and R places. I think it's far more likely to happen in lopsided places in general for the simple reason that 75%+ for a party is difficult to sustain for any party over multiple generations given the ever shifting policy platforms. The exception to this seems to be the black vote, although there are some historical reasons there.

[forsythvoter]

Ironically, I'd be willing to bet Mr. Kaye is now a Democrat or at minimum an Independent. Voters with his profile (transplants from the North, probably fiscally conservative but socially more liberal) were among the first cohort of voters that turned blue in the N Atlanta suburbs in places like Sandy Springs.

That is inaccurate, the Republican sunbelt suburbs were not Fiscal Conservatives/Socially Liberal voters at all . Remember Orange County was the one who spearheaded things like prop 187 , extremely tough on law and order and all.

Also places like Collin County in 2008 were considered the stereotypical religious right area: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/oct/26/uselections2008-republicans

At first glance the church looks like a sparkling new office development, identical to many other buildings popping up on farmland as these 'exurbs' of Dallas succumb to development. But the large cross on its front reveals the truth. Taken as a whole, Prestonwood now has almost 30,000 members, making it one of the largest churches in America. It was recently named as one of America's 50 most influential churches.

It certainly fits in in Prosper. Once a hamlet, it is gradually being swallowed by the suburbs, but its politics remain God and guns.

In places like Maricopa County they used to elect people like Joe Arpaio over and over and in 2000 he got 67% of the vote there while Bush got 53%

No doubt Cobb used to be more socially conservative - my grandparents certainly were in that camp. But still not 80% socially conservative like the election results would have you believe. I grew up in East Cobb for example and remember the 2004 gay marriage amendment. Bush got like 80% in my parent's then precinct but the marriage amendment only got around 60% support. The results in areas like Sandy Springs were even more dramatic. There clearly were some voters who weren't voting R for social reasons that I would suspect were among the first to flip, especially after Trump became President.