forsythvoter
Jr. Member
Posts: 736
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« on: December 12, 2020, 08:05:47 PM » |
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It's a lean R state right now, but trending D. Whether that makes it a battleground depends on the D and R parties' national strategies, but I suspect that the simple fact that it has 40+ electoral votes will turn it into battleground state, because the margins are competitive enough that it wouldn't make sense for Ds to write it off or R to take it for granted.
Personally, I think if we start seeing GA voting D by +5, that's when TX will be a true toss up. The historical data suggests that TX and GA results have generally tended to move in the same direction, with TX being about 6% more R than GA.
TX / GA Pres Result
2004: R+22.9 / R+16.6
2008: R+11.8 / R+5.2
2012: R+15.8 / R+7.8
2016: R+9.0 / R+5.1
2020: R+5.6 / D+0.2
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