Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

SNIP

Thanks for the write-up, i'm rather shamefuly ignorant of Malasiyan political geography.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I was talking with my Chinese Malaysian friend about the upcoming election, he was pretty discouraged and honestly said he wasn't gonna vote this time around despite being back home given his disappointment with the last PH goverment. He's from Penang and his counstiuency Jelutong is Uber safe DAP but I think his opinion is pretty widespread and bodes ill for the oppostion.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It seems the old BN Chinese vote (MCA) is coming back.  MCA had a near-death experience in 2018.  It seems it is on the way to being back as a viable party.

I seriously doubt it's any more than a dead-cat bounce.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I really do think it's a matter of generational replacement, young malasiyan Chinese have next to no connection to the issues that MCA championed in the past and look at them as little more then opportunistic UMNO collaborators. The MCA has done almost nothing to change that perception of themselves.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I would be intrested to know how many cross-racial seats there are in malaisya, ie seats where the MP and the dominant ethnicity are different and how it's distributed between parties ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How much more poorly does BN do among young voters, overall?

My sense is that 18-20 year olds should vote like their parents so it will be a wash.  Although I think many of these votes are pursuable.  Various college mock elections, even those which are heavy Malay, seems to give PH landslides but that might just be a case where only the politically active college students participated.   

I realy realy doubt that would be the case, age-divides in malasiayn politics are very real. Young non-malay Malaysians will almost never vote for the MCA or MIC, while older ones can be convinced to do so by the right canidate.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Also, regarding the Merdeka seat-level polling, lmao.

Malaysian polling is so badly broken sometimes it's hilarious. Bit sad, but hilarious.

At least you guys have polling.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The enduring populairty of islamic parties is pretty depressing.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What's the plan for PH and specifically PKR ? I don't realy see what distinguishes DAP and PKR beyond Anwar.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

So do people just hate DAP out of pure anti-chinese racism?

Well DAP is an offshoot of the PAP, and some Malays views Singapore as a (negative example) of what happen to Malaysia if the were in power.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

SNIP

That makes a lot of sense tbh, Singaporeans probably spend more time talking about Malasiya than vice-versa. I do find the ideological drif of the DAP and the PAP pretty interesting, direct ties were obviously cut after independence and all unofficial ones were burned ones Devin Nair resigned but the parties do still retain some similarities.

I've noticed DAP tends to attract more genuine ideologues,(the only PAP MP I would classify as an ideologue be Tharman) and has obviously stayed closer to the ancestral socialist rhetoric transitioning to a more center-left rethoric rather than the PAP's embrace of generic singaporean nationalism. Yet it's voter base does tend to be more well-to-do than average, and in practice when governing Penang it seems to have adopted a fairly similar pro-free market centrist governing style.

I've noticed some singaporean are taking glee in how Mahathir's downfall but other than that reactions have been rather muted. Kinda Ironic how Najib was probably the prime minister we got along best with.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

PH and UMNO are talking, would be a pretty strange alliance but UMNO and PN would probably see UMNO struggling to differenate itself from it's partner.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

PH and UMNO are talking, would be a pretty strange alliance but UMNO and PN would probably see UMNO struggling to differenate itself from it's partner.

PN+BN feels like the old UMNO party united again. PH+BN is much more unprecedented...best analogy I can think of at the moment is the Socialist-LDP coalition in 1994 Japan, but that's still far from perfect.

https://twitter.com/fmtoday/status/1594535766549372930
Well it's happening on a state-level at least. Malasiya realy does have something for weird political alliances that bring old enemies together.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I've heard that PAS used to receive some support from non-muslims under Nik Aziz, was this actually true outside of being a tactical vote in 2015 ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Would be an extremely weird way for Anwar to become prime minister.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Break down of the race of the MP's between the political alliances. It does seem racial polarisation between alliances is going to become a permanent feature of Malasiayn politics

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Break down of the race of the MP's between the political alliances. It does seem racial polarisation between alliances is going to become a permanent feature of Malasiayn politics

As far as I am concerned it was the Chinese that started it.  They shifted their votes from MCA to the more radical DAP in 2008 which in turn provoked a counter-consolidation with Malays toward more radical Malay parties.

How dare Chinese and Indian Malaysians refuse to vote for a cartoonishly corrupt looser, and instead wish for a meritocratic state ?

It takes a special kind of perspective to view the DAP as radical.

So everything starts with a).  The Chinese were thinking that bloc voting can produce a better outcome for them at the political level but over time merely created a counter-Malay consolidation with a strong chance of a radical Malay government.  

Well it starts with UMNO having become increasingly malay nationist and hostile to the chinese and indian communites, and Najib being a kleptocrat are also important features.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Anwar is finally prime minister, with the weirdest political alliance in Malaysian history. Somebody needs to make a biopic of the man.

https://twitter.com/malaysiakini/status/1595651920580026369?t=7iiyQ_WVisHzsKEDgM...