2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.    

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's ext to no crossover voting here

Bizarrely enough, Joseph Cao won the New Orleans based district in 2008 - but that was a really peculiar election, and he lost in 2010.

Yeah and he won a special not a presidential election.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.   

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.   

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances. 

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I actually think Julia Letlow is the type of Republican who could win a Biden +10 district.  I wouldn't count her 100% out in a new LA-05 that looks like the plaintiff's map.    

Has any Biden  +10 plurality black district elected a republican in a normal presidental election cycle. There's next to no crossover voting here

MS-02 is 65% Black and re-elected incumbent Bennie Thompson by 20 points in 2022.

The configuration of LA-05 in the plaintiff's map is ~55% Black and Letlow is the incumbent.  She's also a woman with moderate appeal.    

I could see it being a race, under the right circumstances.  

That's not a completive race, outside of freak circumstances no republican even one with moderate appeal is able to win black voters in substantial number especially in the deep south.  They can win black majority districts if the differential turnout is high enough, but given her district will include a substansial number of college educated liberal voters that won't be that helpful to her here.

....you have obviously never been to Baton Rouge LOL

Letlow is going to win more Black voters than a "normal" Republican in these circumstances.  If differential turnout is high enough, she could win the race.    

What are you basing this on? Can you give an example of this happening for a partisan race in the deep south, where a republican is able to outperform Biden by 10 points among a primarily black electorate?


btw I have actually been there, though only for a few hours on a road trip.