Why Biden will win Wisconsin

[Malarkey Decider]

I agree with points 2,3 and 4.
However, as Arizona Iced Tea said, I think it's very possible that Driftless / Rural Areas shift further to the right.

To Illustrate this, I would compare two counties right across the border from each other: Allamakee County, Iowa and Crawford County, Wisconsin. These two counties have similar populations (13k to 17k), racial demographics (89% and 94% White) and Educational Levels (51.5% and 48% No College), yet there is a major gap in voting patterns, with Allamakee being Trump+29 and Crawford being Trump+8.

You are correct in that rural Wisconsin will never be as red as rural Alabama, but it might get close to being as red as Iowa or other comparable rural northern areas.


On the other hand, one possible plus for Biden is that Kenosha will probably not deviate like it did in 2020 because of the riots. Similar areas shifted to Biden by like 4%, but Kenosha swung right by 4% (And Racine had no swing). I suspect that if the protests/riots hadn't of occurred, Biden would have netted 10k more votes from these two counties and pushed his statewide margins above 1%. I think he may get many of those voters in 2024.