Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

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https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

Does this act do anything different than we are already doing?

I just looked at the summary of the bill. It seems a big part of it is reducing bureaucratic barriers to speed up the delivery of weapon systems. Also, the bill waives "(1) a requirement that prohibits a loan period from exceeding five years, (2) a requirement that the United States may recall the loaned defense article at any time, (3) a requirement that the receiving party has agreed to pay the United States all costs incurred in leasing the defense article..."

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https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

Lend Lease? How about giving them stuff for free rather than driving them further into debt?

It essentially does that [see my previous post.] The bill allows the US to waive any right to repayment for the defense articles being leased until Russia essentially gives back Crimea (so, basically forever) or until Russia has reduced its military forces on Ukraine's eastern border to levels maintained prior to March 1, 2021.

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https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1512096434346201088

https://twitter.com/SenateCloakroom/status/1512092377330110475

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Serbia?!

They probably realized that since the motion was going to pass, they might as well vote with the winning side. Voting no would have exposed them to real consequences without materially helping Russia.

Myanmar is what surprised me.

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https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1512113804074790916

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1512116881481740291

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This WaPo article details some of the gruesome killings in Bucha, including apparent beheadings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/06/bucha-barbarism-atrocities-russian-soldiers/

For those without subscriptions or free articles left this month, here are some excerpts:

As a team from the district prosecutor’s office moved slowly through Bucha on Wednesday, investigators uncovered evidence of torture before death, beheading and dismemberment, and the intentional burning of corpses.

On the gravel near a loading dock lay the body of Dmytro Chaplyhin, 21, whose abdomen was bruised black and blue, his hands marked with what looked like cigarette burns. He ultimately was killed by a gunshot to the chest, concluded team leader Ruslan Kravchenko. His body then was turned into a weapon, tied to a tripwire connected to a mine.

On a dirt path behind it was an even more grotesque scene: two victims, their bodies bloating. One man’s head had been cleanly sliced off, burned and left by his splayed feet.

The factory is just one fragment of the bloodied city. In Bucha’s cemetery, 58 body bags were lined up on Wednesday. All but one contained bodies of people who had been summarily executed or tortured to death

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I am now suspicious of all claims that Mariupol has 'pretty much fallen.' For the past four weeks, we've seen predictions that the city will probably fall 'within the next couple of days' and that has yet to occur. Urban combat is an inherently messy affair and it's extremely difficult to delineate lines of control. Just because a clip of footage has been released that shows Russian or Ukrainian troops in a particular area of the city, it doesn't necessarily mean they control said area. I recall seeing footage a day or two ago claiming to show armor belonging to the Azov Battalion operating in a suburb of Mariupol that has allegedly been in Russian control for the last several weeks.

This is all not to say that Mariupol couldn't fall within the next day or two, but I'm not putting much weight in such claims myself.

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More meat for the grinder:

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1512487913426386946

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NATO should put Putin on the payroll.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1512488459667382273

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https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1513210540134473733

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Wait for this to be confirmed but concerning given the pronouncements from the separatist lackeys advocating for the use of "chemical troops" in Mariupol just earlier today.

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1513597873593663492
  

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https://twitter.com/bensiegel/status/1514016045287325700

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https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1514000767316901888

Helicopters are where it’s at.

Unfortunate because:

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1514034271568203780

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That said, the Ukrainians seem to be pretty adept at striking Russian armored columns using indirect fire from artillery, so any additional resources in that realm will help.

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https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1514400382356803589

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https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1514693735430426633

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Sabotage or coincidence?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517187794527043585

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https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1567863002614927360

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https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1567883017015726082

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lol

https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1568603258586894337

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https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353
https://twitter.com/GoncharenkoUa/status/1568643958074392577

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https://twitter.com/VladDavidzon/status/1568622692701536257
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1568606907769700353

Holy s***. I have long felt that it was interesting that the front near Donetsk city has not moved all that much since February. If the Ukrainians are able to take the airport—territory that fell in 2015—that would put them around 6-7 miles from the Donetsk city center. Again, I am in awe.

I would be shocked if the Ukrainians are actually making an attempt to retake Donetsk city or the occupied suburbs. I think it's more likely that they are attempting to keep up the pressure on Russian/DPR forces in that area so they can't be redeployed further north. That said, the ability of the Ukrainians to mount simultaneous counteroffensives and supporting actions across multiple fronts is incredibly impressive and speaks to how far they have come as a fighting force since 2014/2015.

Addendum: that said, I didn't think that the Russian military would cease to be an effective fighting force in Kharkiv Oblast within a matter of a week and yet...

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https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1568624975220772864

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More on the Donetsk situation:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1568656767395176448