Oppenheimer wins 7 Oscars (Best Picture) (film & awards)

[Red Velvet]

Barbenheimer will win big. Besides the phenomenon online of the duo-release,  they were the only 2 “original” adult films (not sequels or shared universe) that managed to make HUGE box office combined with major critical acclaim.

Which is what Hollywood lacks right now, so they will try to reward those. Barbie wins Comedy/Musical and Oppenheimer wins Drama. Both of those two will also be big at the Oscars.

My favorite film from 2023 was actually Ari Aster’s “Beau is Afraid” though.

[Red Velvet]

Golden Globe winners predictions:

FILM - DRAMA
Winner: Oppenheimer
Alternative: Killers of the Flower Moon

FILM - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Winner: Barbie
Alternative: Poor Things

FILM - NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Alternative: The Zone of Interest

FILM - ANIMATION
Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse
Alternative: The Boy and the Heron

DIRECTOR
Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alternative: Greta Gerwig, Barbie

ACTOR - DRAMA
Winner: Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Alternative: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

ACTOR - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Alternative: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

ACTRESS - DRAMA
Winner: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alternative: None, maybe Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall in a distant 2nd.

ACTRESS - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternative: Margot Robbie, Barbie

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Alternative: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternative: Julianne Moore, May December

SCREENPLAY
Winner: Barbie
Alternative: Oppenheimer

ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: Oppenheimer
Alternative: Killers of the Flower Moon

ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Alternative: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

CINEMATIC AND BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT
Winner: Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Alternative: Barbie


TOTAL AWARDS PREDICTION PER FILM:

1. Barbie - 4 awards (Film - Comedy/Musical + Screenplay + Supporting Actor + Song)
2. Oppenheimer - 3 awards (Film - Drama + Director + Score)
3. The Holdovers - 2 awards (Actor - Comedy/Musical + Supporting Actress)
4. Poor Things - 1 award (Actress - Comedy/Musical)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon - 1 award (Actress - Drama)
6. Maestro - 1 award (Actor - Drama)
7. Anatomy of a Fall - 1 award (Film - Not in the English Language)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse - 1 award (Film - Animation)
9. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour - 1 award (Cinematic and Box Office Achievement)

[Red Velvet]

This is actually the strongest set of nominees in years. Oscars only nominate small movies people don’t care about in the last years and which were also not good enough or somewhat boring.

2013 with Gravity; 2016 with La La Land vs Moonlight vs Manchester and 2019 with Parasite (which wasn’t seen by many in US but it was an exceptionally GREAT movie) are the ones that stand out to me. All the other years in last ten tears were too mediocre for me to even remember tbh.

This year there’s a variety that’s healthy and also quite good and exciting. You have as Best Picture nominees:

- Barbie and Oppenheimer, as the big popular blockbusters with rave reviews that everyone watched and loved, both being the ~movie events~ of the year as well.

- Killers of the Flower Moon, as big famous and known Director Auteurish project, with Scorsese being the most recognized Director of the bunch

- The Holdovers, as the fully Original and Fictional adult movie that is well-made, immersive and emotional but also quite Fun, film of the bunch.

- Poor Things, as the well-received quirky and somewhat weird concept film that people find unusual but enjoy a lot and feel like adds personality to the nomination list.

- Anatomy of a Fall and Zone of Interest, as the highly raved foreign films (non-US made) that were loved after premiering in Cannes.

- Past Lives, as the well received Asian-American film following the EEAAO Best Picture last year, guaranteeing not all films are about White people.

- American Fiction, as the well received Afro-American film guaranteeing not all films nominated are about White or Asian people.

- Maestro, as the traditional boring historical biopic of an American figure or celeb guaranteeing that we also have at least one nominee that is basic for the people who like that kind of stuff.

[Red Velvet]

2019 with Parasite (which wasn’t seen by many in US but it was an exceptionally GREAT movie) are the ones that stand out to me.

This is just blind anti-American bias if you honestly think that. It was the third biggest US Best Picture winner of the 2010s (after The King's Speech and Argo - certainly ahead of Green Book when you account for streaming), and given how poorly the reputation of the other two has aged since their victories, it is probably the most discussed film outside of EEAAO even years five after its release.

What? Absolutely not. EEAAO, Shape of Water and even freaking 12 Years a Slave all had bigger box office in US than Parasite as well.

Parasite did great box office in US for a foreign film but it wasn’t even more watched  like it would have if it was in English, because of the natural limitations of being a foreign film.

Only reason so many BP winners have even lower box office than Parasite goes back to my original point: Many of the films the Academy embraced last years were films that average people didn’t care about, besides not being that great or memorable either.

Parasite is the only BP winner from last years that I consider truly a masterpiece, so it should have been much more seen because it isn’t a small film or a slow watch either.

Moonlight was also pretty great but naturally a more intimate smaller film that wouldn’t get much of an audience.

[Red Velvet]

It’s not that Oscars became elitist though, Hollywood simply stopped making big or medium sized “prestige” original films like they used to because they don’t deliver money. Everything is a superhero franchise or another big IP brand that doesn’t have the necessary quality to be nominated.

That’s why the Oscars turned to indies more recently or rely more on “safe” auteurs and also are more open towards foreign films, where they can find that type of adult movie that is original and good more easily.

This year they were just lucky that Barbenheimer was such a critics + box office phenomenon, combining the best of both worlds.

If you look at the other nominees, it’s a strong list in terms of quality but reflects the past decade trends I’ve mentioned. Two non-US foreign films that were acclaimed in Cannes, exactly like Parasite was. One big established auteur film that should always be safe, this year happens to be Scorsese. One bland biopic people don’t care for. Two smaller low-stakes comedy/dramas that bring more diversity to the list and prevent it from being an all-white line up. One quirky film with a crazy premise and vision, also made by a younger auteur that represents ~the future~.

And then there’s “The Holdovers”, which is the film from the line up that probably comes the closest to matching the vibe of traditional old-school Oscar nominees from the past. But which will also not be big at the box office because audiences are infantilized these days and don’t go to cinemas to watch these movies anymore.

Compare The Holdovers box office with the one Oscar nominated Sideways (from same director) got:

- The Holdovers (2023) - $18 Million
- Sideways (2004) - $71 Million

And that’s because The Holdovers is a pretty good movie, on the same level or even better than Sideways. Both original adult movies that cater to the same kind of audience.

Like, movies like Sideways weren’t giant blockbusters or anything but they were pretty well-seen and even more seen than the “big audience successes” from Oscar these days such as EEAAO, which made $77 Million - same box office as Sideways but TWENTY years later, with all the accumulated inflation that happened that is nothing compared in terms of tickets bought.

[Red Velvet]

Yeah looking back at this list of winners up until 2010, the only winners I liked were Moonlight; Argo and obviously Parasite.

All others were meh for me or even stuff I disliked even though there were good movies running against them. Gravity for instance, is one of my favorite films.

Love, absolute masterpiece:
- Parasite

Like, pretty strong movies:
- Moonlight
- Argo

Okay, forgettable but enjoyable fluff:
- Shape of Water
- The Artist

Respect because it’s well made but Meeh it’s somewhat boring:
- 12 Years a Slave
- Nomadland

Dislike, forgettable and not enjoyable:
- The King’s Speech
- Spotlight

Hate, these make me angry watching:
- CODA
- Green Book
- EEAAO
- Birdman

[Red Velvet]

Ryan Gosling getting an acting nomination and not the woman who literally plays Barbie or the woman who made the damn film (for Best Director) goes completely against the overall subtext of that movie. What an Academy moment.

Ryan Gosling steals the show in terms of acting in Barbie though. He’s undeniably the MVP of that movie, so much that he could even WIN the Oscar if RDJ wasn’t the favorite for Oppenheimer.

America Ferrera nomination in Supporting Actress for Barbie is the funny one because she’s basically nominated for that one monologue scene only lol

Margot Robbie was fine but kinda overshadowed by Gosling. Didn’t help that the Main Barbie character basically had no personality and strong traits that defined her, she’s supposed to just be the average Barbie so that any women can identify with the message. Things happen to her, she’s mostly a reactive character. Ken as a character is way more fleshed out even if he’s the antagonist.

Now, the Greta Gerwig snub in Director is definitely unfair as it’s the main reason why movie was so good, but the category just happened to be too strong this year. Nolan is the future winner; Scorsese is Scorsese; Lanthimos movie is supposedly the main threat to Oppenheimer and the other two are the foreign ”High-Art” Prestige nominations that usually get at least one spot in Best Director.

This year “Zone of Interest” and “Anatomy of a Fall” - both raved Cannes films - over performed and took both Greta Gerwig and Alexander Payne out of Best Director instead of just one as expected.

I wonder if sympathy for Gerwig snub in Director can generate goodwill for her to Win Adapted Screenplay over Oppenheimer.

[Red Velvet]

Of the Best Picture lineup I’ve seen 7 out of 10 but in the next three weeks I will watch two more. My current ranking goes like this:

1) Anatomy of a Fall
2) The Holdovers
3) Killers of the Flower Moon
4) Barbie
5) Past Lives
6) Oppenheimer
7) Maestro

Poor Things premieres this next Thursday in Brazil and Zone of Interest in February 15th so I’ll update this list soon.

There’s no release date so far for American Fiction that I’m aware of.

Of the 7 I’ve watched, only Anatomy of a Fall is an all-time masterpiece. But The Holdovers and also the Scorsese film are still very great films that will be quite memorable for me, coming close to it!

Barbie will also be memorable but not just because of the film quality but also because of the whole cultural phenomenon that it was.

Past Lives is a good movie with interesting concept that loses itself in the end IMO and becomes way too manipulative.

Oppenheimer I appreciate the tech aspects but dislike it as a movie.

Maestro is just too bland to even hate on. It’s the “also there” movie that people even forget is amongst the contenders. But I guess it’s nice to have a film in there to cater to the older crowd that gets excited about that kind of film?

Very good line up overall, one of the strongest in years and also very balanced! I’ve been hearing good stuff about the two movies I’m watching next, so it will consolidate it as one of the best I’ve seen.

Just having Anatomy of a Fall in there elevates it to a much higher level than the average year.