Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[Red Velvet]

Instituto Mapa poll

Runoff:

Lula 51,4%
Bolsonaro 31,5%
Blank/Null 11,7%
Don’t Know 5,5%


1st round:

Lula (center-left) 36,8%
Bolsonaro (right) 26,8%
Sérgio Moro (right) 5,1%
Ciro Gomes (center-left) 5,0%
Luciano Huck (center) 4,5%
João Doria (center-right) 3,3%
Luiz Mandetta (center-right) 2,7%
João Amoedo (libertarian) 2,6%

[Red Velvet]

There was a police reaction of brutality in the city of Recife, in the state of Pernambuco. Even a female city council member got targeted.

International media is making this more news than Brazilian media. You would think it’s because they want to be “impartial” and want to give the same low coverage as past pro-Bolsonaro manifests, but I remember things were very different in mid-2010s with all the anti-PT hysteria and the maximum coverage they gave to a bunch of right-wingers on the streets.

[Red Velvet]

Brazilian media is one of the most disgraceful things I’ve seen. They’re different because they try to sell themselves as “impartial” but they’re super partisan based on what they choose to say and what they ignore.

Of the major printed newspapers, only “Folha de São Paulo” covered it with the necessary space. “O Globo” and “Estadão” gave more focus to boring stuff unrelated to yesterday, like Home Office effects on touristic cities.

On TV media, there was also little space given by Globonews and CNN Brasil. CNN is one of the most popular broadcasters between Bolsonaro supporters, not because they will openly kiss their ass, but because they will often put to debate a prepared person saying logical stuff based on data and a crazy right-winger saying conspiracy theories, acting like that is really impartial because they’re hearing two equally opposite sides.

Open TV media isn’t better. Globo naturally underplayed it as well, giving it the same space they did to smaller pro-Bolsonaro protests a month ago. Record is much worse, it lied about the main reason of the protests and just said they were organized to demand a raise in the emergency checks without giving it bigger coverage.

I feel like most countries are kinda like this regardless if they’re a better or worse version. We’re all being fed with propaganda. International media is always a better tool to understand what is going in your own country than Domestic lying media who will always be responding to people above. Internationally, you don’t have these hidden country elite interests controlling so much, which is why foreigners become a better guide.

These protests were the biggest news in yesterday’s general website cover of The Guardian and Le Monde.

[Red Velvet]

NEWS: Bolsonaro has made a deal to join PATRIOTAS (Patriots Party) for the 2022 election.

Bolsonaro was in PSL (Social Liberal Party) but left it in November 2019, months after elected, because of internal disputes and faction conflicts he started. He has been party-less since then and had announced plans of creating his own party: Aliança pelo Brasil (ApB), but has given up because you need a minimum of public signatures in order to start a political party in Brazil and it eventually became evident last year that he wouldn’t be able to get enough signatures in time.

So now he’s opting to join an existing political party just like he had done with PSL prior to his election. The Patriot Party is a smallish party, like PSL also was, but has gained more relevance in past years after their rebrand (Before changing to Patriot, their previous name was National Ecological Party). Difference is that PSL only became far-right because Bolsonaro joined it, bringing lots of far-right elected people with him, but the party leadership wasn’t extremist, which is why conflicts started.

With Patriotas I suppose it will be different because it has been a far-right party for some time already, since their rebranding, so maybe there won’t be many conflicts between Bolsonaro and the party like there was with PSL? Will Bolsonaro even get elected in order for us to know the answer to this question? Let’s wait and see.

[Red Velvet]

Poder Data 2022 poll:

1st round

Jair Bolsonaro (no party) 33%
Lula (Worker's Party - PT) 31%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party - PDT) 10%
Luciano Huck (no party) 4%
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (Democrats - DEM) 4%
João Amoedo (New Party - NOVO) 3%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party - PSDB) 3%
blank/null: 7%
don't know: 5%

2nd round scenarios

Bolsonaro 37% vs. Lula 48%
Bolsonaro 35% vs. Huck 45%
Bolsonaro 36% vs. Ciro 44%
Bolsonaro 39% vs. Doria 39%
Lula 45% vs. Huck 24%
Lula 42% vs. Ciro 22%

I always imagine how centrists from the outside see these elections lmao. Like, who they would like?

Between 3 leading candidates:

1. Lula - Was part of the pink tide in LatAm,  got jailed but then the whole process was declared biased, is one of the most known leftist leaders in the world.

2. Bolsonaro - Part of the populist right trend, loves Donald Trump, very conservative on cultural issues, scandals on the news every week.

3. Ciro - Tries to dispute the protagonism of the left and attacks Lula for being “too neoliberal” during his 00s term, especially in regards deindustrialization.

Then there is all the people I would expect centrists to like, distant from the top 3:

- Luciano Huck at 4th, a TV host that never held public office, even if he was painting himself as the most centrist option (socially progressive, economically center-right).

- Henrique Mandetta at 5th, an average and boring center-right establishment candidate that is only being considered because he stood up against Bolsonaro when he was his Health minister at the beginning of the COVID pandemic.

- João Amoedo at 6th as the Libertarian option that edgy right-wingers who are more intellectual and usually from big cities like.

- João Doria in 7th (!!!) as the PSDB candidate, the center-right party that used to be the main representative of Brazilian right before it radicalized and shifted to Bolsonaro.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1403390200059936772

Zema is the current governor (elected in the Bolsonaro 2018; he aligned with him) and the left actually really likes Kalil (Belo Horizonte mayor) in Minas.

It will probably be polarized between the two.

[Red Velvet]

Missy is getting desperate:

https://www.twitter.com/brunnosarttori/status/1407021012500332544

But the funniest part of the video is Carla Zambelli following her leader and also taking her mask off after he does it 

[Red Velvet]

So for what reason did Flavio Dino leave PCdoB?

New rules that are being increasingly implemented will limit parties access to funding and TV propaganda time. That is stimulating smaller parties to fuse with bigger ones in order to have access to that money and TV time. New rules establish a minimum electoral requirement in order to have access to those things (like, minimum % of the vote for congress in at least a certain number of states, etc).

PCdoB will eventually fuse with PSB, the party where Dino is migrating to. Even PSOL is under risk of not meeting new rules and losing those things. The left-wing parties that don’t face risk are PT, PDT and PSB.

Freixo has even left PSOL too and joined PSB, like Flávio Dino. PSOL has an energetic base of voters but the party is kinda chaotic because of its uncompromising nature even if the politicians in it are great. PSB is becoming this neutral big tent left party with the more socialist figures like Flavio Dino and the more liberal corporate friendly ones like Tabata Amaral (who got trashed by the left for voting in favor of neoliberal reforms) while there is an ideological clash between PT and PDT (Lulismo/Petismo vs Brizolismo/Varguismo).

[Red Velvet]

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1408020715975106563?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

Marcelo Freixo now being polled with his new party PSB, instead of PSOL.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1408260435262967813?ref_src=twsrc%5E...
Ipec is the new Ibope (alongside Datafolha, one of the most traditional Brazilian polling institutes for elections).

It’s showing a Lula win already in the 1st round, without a runoff. Thatsomething he didn’t even manage to do in the 00s, both of his two victories happened with a runoff! Only president since redemocratization to have won in 1st round was FHC in both of his terms in the 90s.

That’s impressive but it reflects how much Bolsonaro is absolutely hated by Brazilians nowadays. That polarization (which Brazilian right created!) combined with the Supreme Court clearing Lula’s name, was decisive in shifting the mood of the nation.

Bolsonaro is also about to face new problems in the future… Bad administration combined with environmental natural events resulted in a big risk of lack of energy problems, which could lead to voluntary blackouts in order to save energy, something we don’t see since late FHC 2nd term in 2001, which was his most unpopular moment!

The confusing privatization of Eletrobras also has the potential for worsening things up, leading to higher energy prices for the consumer. Even people who were defending the privatization of that company changed their discourse to a more negative opinion because congress included a bunch of unrelated stuff as conditions to the privatization (basically, multiple powerful interests wanting to assure they will have some share of control over the company). I’ve even seen Globo, biggest Brazilian media, which always was enthusiastic about the neoliberal reforms and privatizations, be somewhat critical of this particular one and how it happened in the terms it did.

COVID investigation comittee is also on fire, pressing the Bolsonaro government a lot this week. I haven’t followed it so much but apparently there’s a recent important discovery of a document that evidences corruption in the process of buying Covaxin Indian vaccines. There was giant pressure from the government to buy those for a much larger and absurd prices while the safety and efficiency of that specific vaccine wasn’t clear. At the same time, the process of buying Pfizer vaccines was sabotaged by the government on purpose, with ELEVEN selling proposals by Pfizer simply being ignored by Bolsonaro.

Mayyyybe this could lead to complications to Bolsonaro on a criminal level but I’m not really sure to say that it will or it won’t happen. Heard rumors of TSE possibly making him ineligible as well? Sometimes things in this country can be exhausting, like an unpredictable tv series with tons of plots and twists. So I don’t dare to make any predictions about where these investigations will lead or if there will be any accountability for the crimes of the agents involved.

[Red Velvet]

Wasn't there a poll just the other day that had Bolsonaro and Lula neck and neck?

What's going on??

Polling methods. Ipec and Datafolha are more trustworthy because they ask on the streets, being more representative imo. The others are done by telephone and I think that limits your reach in some demographic levels.

[Red Velvet]

For those who understand this slang: Bolsonaro's potato is baking
The inquiry in the Senate was created in order to investigate the mismanagement of the pandemic. Now, it was found possibility of corruption in the purchase of Indian vaccine Covaxin.

Well, all the mismanagement of the pandemic was much worse than a simple corruption scandal. 500K people died, maybe twice as much if the pandemic were better managed. But the discovery of a possible corruption scandal makes the situation of Bolsonaro worse.

Today was the end of his government. The COVID investigation comittee was on fire and it was revealed that Bolsonaro knew that the leader of his government in congress was involved with schemes that were taking away public money used for the response to the pandemic. Bolsonaro did nothing even though he knew this was happening.

Luís Miranda, congressman who denounced this conversation, had to go through 7 hours of inquiry before finally giving away the name of the person Bolsonaro talked about in the conversation he had with him. It was Ricardo Barros, leader of Bolsonaro government in congress. Luís Miranda was super scared to give that detail but he eventually did in the very end. I hope he receives lots of protection in order to not be “suicided”.

It’s over. Finally over. Idk if impeachment will happen or not, but Bolsonaro government is over even if he stays until the end of 2022. It will be a zombie government like Dilma’s 2nd term was in 2015-2016, one that she had no power at all. And that’s IF he is lucky enough to be there for one more year.

[Red Velvet]

The only thing going for Bolsonaro right now is his ability to placate the Center and delay the election. A more interesting question is what happens when Bolsonaro is gone, considering he glues together both supporters and enemies. I have a hard time imagining ex-Bolsonaro voters just going back to voting PSDB.

Oh I do too. I think anti-PT sentiment made a lot of people to buy Bolsonaro angry anti-establishment narrative, thinking they were destroying PT for the sake of their short-term immediate ambitions, but they were actually destroying PSDB in the medium to long term.

And like them or not, PSDB since the redemocratization has been the counterpoint to PT, it’s main rival. Most privatizations and neoliberal policies in this country were established in the 90s during their reign. Before it, the military always had the nationalistic approach to the economy in the military regime and prior to that there was the populist period with strong Getúlio Vargas influence. And then after the 90s you had four successive PT victories in the 00s and first half of the 2010s.

So I don’t consider that it was a smart strategy for some of the more “intellectual” right-wingers to simply drop the PSDB as establishment trash to join Bolsonaro crazy narrative. Their hate for PT after winning four consecutive times (last one being very polarized election) made them have this main goal of taking it out immediately no matter what. Including dropping an established strong party like PSDB and its structure to join crazy man who channeled their anger against the PT and the political system.

If they were so angry and energized after the 2014 loss, it would have been smarter to just let Dilma collapse by herself. More four years and PT’s image would sink at 2018 much deeper at the mud because of the economy crisis. The focus on the economy would give PSDB a landslide 2018 victory and they would be favorites to win in 2022 as well.

Instead, PSDB, its voters and also all the media chose to use disingenuous “corruption” concerns to motivate the early ousting of the 1st female president who was probably one of the most honest leader that passed in Brasília. Her problem was tons of incompetence in dealing with the economy, but people acted like she was being judged by all the system corruption because that’s what they were most angry about. It made all the process forced, to have her judged by all those crooks in the congress (who are never held accountable for anything!). Also, the treatment given to Lula in his trial and jailing is something I never thought it would be given to any president in the country, something that isn’t even done to congressmen accused of much more terrible stuff than Lula ever was. It was clear they were also pressing hard for political motives, even if I don’t necessarily think he was a saint either.

All this gave the left the very base of a narrative to work with. And then these people who campaigned for the Lula arrest elected Bolsonaro, who put the judge responsible for the arrest as his minister, which sealed the fate of the Brazilian right in losing the narrative dispute in the long term. Domestically and internationally. You can’t support a notorious villain who always behaved in a destructive manner and think that’s great long-term strategy. But they weren’t thinking on the long-term, they wanted to burn things down and the agents with more fascist characteristics probably also hoped that Bolsonaro would stay forever in power through force or be competent to establish a coup or something. That kind of authoritarian mind-of-thought that you can achieve all you want by brute force.

The result of all this is a precocious revival of the left. Like I said, in the alternative timeline in which the right was less impulsive, PSDB would have won in 2018 and 2022 and if they managed to do a competent job, they would be looking good for 2026 as well. Instead, the PT left will win in 2022 and frankly, they are looking good for the future as well because PSDB is currently destroyed on a federal level (5% in the polls) and Bolsonaro is the main representative of the right now. But he’s way too hated to win anything against anyone after his incendiary government, making the long term scenario be a polarization of the populist Bolsonaro-friendly right vs a revived PT left which is now able to call themselves as the “pragmatic” and “smart” option simply because they aren’t Bolsonaro. That is Heaven scenario for PT, they could continue their reign for a long time.

The radicalization of the Brazilian right represented their destruction. PSDB appeal over PT was their pragmatism on the economy especially, selling the right as the more responsible option. No one can now call the right “responsible” with Bolsonaro as their main representative. They wanted to destroy PT but they actually saved it from its errors and gave them a fast redemption. People are very nostalgic about the idea of late Lula years these days.

IMO, the path for rebuilding a strong right would be building things from the very base instead of betting on quick options. It could be through a revival of PSDB or even by joining a new serious party with clear ideological-driven lines. But it would need lots of people to dump Bolsonaro and I’m not really sure that will ever happen. It COULD happen, if Bolsonaro keeps getting involved in even worse stuff for the next year, but I suspect he will always have something between at least 10%-20% of support, while the others who voted for him but regretted are still lost and scattered in regards what they really want as a collective project (instead of the adventure they bet on) and how to properly confront Bolsonaro in order to take away his right-wing protagonism. What joined all these people was their hate for PT but that proved to not be enough in the construction of a good alternative that is sustainable, it only worked to stop PT consecutive victories in one specific election because that was their only real goal.

[Red Velvet]

Brazil has its Pete Buttigieg: Eduardo Leite, Governor of Rio Grande do Sul state and one of PSDB hopefuls for 2022 presidency, has come out as gay.

https://mobile.twitter.com/g1/status/1410756557047054336

“Pete Buttigieg” not only because it’s new to maybe have someone from a big party who is gay possibly running for President. But also because he’s from PSDB, which we associate with neoliberalism. I can already imagine some gay progressives voting for him even if he’s right-wing because of representation lmao.

That said, I think it’s very amazing for a state Governor to publicly come out as gay in these times. It’s evidence of how the country evolved a lot in these past years, despite Bolsonaro. Eduardo Leite isn’t my candidate but out of all of PSDB options, I hope now he wins the party nomination because if it must be a PSDB neoliberal running the country, I would rather have one that makes sure the Palácio do Planalto will have rainbow lights during LGBT pride! #representation

[Red Velvet]

If anything, it’s the left who is energetically trashing Eduardo Leite after coming out lol. All the Brazilian left-wing celebs like Felipe Neto, Glenn Greenwald and Jean Wyllys (Ex PSOL congressman who was the first gay member of legislative) are united in having a negative take about this.

I don’t really fully agree tbh although I see the point, I think hyping Leite up for the presidency just because he’s gay is stupid, especially when I don’t agree with him politically. He doesn’t represent me just because he’s a gay. That said, he came out yesterday and I think it’s normal to people to receive the news of Brazil’s first OUT gay Governor with hype in the first day, congratulating him. Naturally, if this lingers for longer and people keep using the dumb identity politics narrative that we gays should support Leite, then it’s a valid argument.

This is only because Leite is establishment center-right neoliberal politician that Globo media likes. If Leite was a left-wing politician they would all be celebrating this and making a big deal of how representation is important. But since he isn’t, the speech shifts to how empty representation is stupid, as Leite voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 despite being gay. Shouldn’t be a good thing that the right is becoming more diverse? That doesn’t mean we have to vote for them lol

I think the idea of PSDB becoming this modern socially liberal right-wing party (kinda like US democratic party) kinda scares the left-wing voters. They do have a point that representation is about what you do for your community and Leite voted for Bolsonaro. But we shouldn’t pretend he was the only gay voting “against” his interests in 2018. He doesn’t represent me but surely there are people who will feel represented by his coming out and they exist too, whether the left likes it or not.

But it’s also true there is only hype because he’s young and hot and has an even hotter boyfriend. If there were women who voted for Collor in 1989 just because of his looks (and he wasn’t even cute imo), then Leite definitely has some potential with women and also gay men demographics in this specific regard. If he was not a heteronormative “Padrão” type, people wouldn’t even be considering him for the presidency. The image privileges of being a cute white gay with power…

I hope he’s the PSDB nominee though! Being gay is enough for me to like someone more than Doria lol

[Red Velvet]

If anything, it’s the left who is energetically trashing Eduardo Leite after coming out lol. All the Brazilian left-wing celebs like Felipe Neto, Glenn Greenwald and Jean Wyllys (Ex PSOL congressman who was the first gay member of legislative) are united in having a negative take about this.

I don’t really fully agree tbh although I see the point, I think hyping Leite up for the presidency just because he’s gay is stupid, especially when I don’t agree with him politically. He doesn’t represent me just because he’s a gay. That said, he came out yesterday and I think it’s normal to people to receive the news of Brazil’s first OUT gay Governor with hype in the first day, congratulating him. Naturally, if this lingers for longer and people keep using the dumb identity politics narrative that we gays should support Leite

This is only because Leite is establishment center-right neoliberal politician that Globo media likes. If Leite was a left-wing politician they would all be celebrating this and making a big deal of how representation is important. But since he isn’t, the speech shifts to how empty representation is stupid, as Leite voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 despite being gay. Shouldn’t be a good thing that the right is becoming more diverse? That doesn’t mean we have to vote for them lol

I think the idea of PSDB becoming this modern socially liberal right-wing party (kinda like US democratic party) kinda scares the left-wing voters. They do have a point that representation is about what you do for your community and Leite voted for Bolsonaro. But we shouldn’t pretend he was the only gay voting “against” his interests in 2018. He doesn’t represent me but surely there are people who will feel represented by his coming out and they exist too, whether the left likes it or not.

But it’s also true there is only hype because he’s young and hot and has an even hotter boyfriend. If there were women who voted for Collor in 1989 just because of his looks (and he wasn’t even cute imo), then Leite definitely has some potential with women and also gay men demographics in this specific regard. If he was not a heteronormative “Padrão” type, people wouldn’t even be considering him for the presidency. The image privileges of being a cute white gay with power…

I hope he’s the PSDB nominee though! Being gay is enough for me to like someone more than Doria lol

Reminds me of that time Ciro Gomes called Fernando Holiday a bush captain.

Kinda yes , but Holiday and his discourse always actively worked to antagonize the Black movement and more than just on a policy-matter. The attack, even if heavy (a normal day for Ciro and his tongue) and arguably disproportionate, has a criticism that is valid behind it.

I think Holiday has changed his rhetoric to be less antagonizing of the black movement though. He still criticizes some positions but there isn’t the same type of “disgust” in his rhetoric like before. I think maybe he got more educated and even if he still disagrees with lots of it, he isn’t as disrespectful of the collective movement as a whole.

Eduardo Leite criticism is just because he’s from PSDB, leans towards right-wing economic politics and never had specific LGBT policy history of fighting. As if someone wasn’t allowed to be that just because they’re gay. But I’ve never seen him openly wanting to start a personal feud against the gay community he’s a part of, actively antagonizing LGBT policies. He’s more of a discreet gay who always wanted to not position himself on these matters, while Holiday was a black man who used to like to trash the black movement demands with a very particular focus.

That doesn’t necessarily make Ciro attacks appropriate or proportional, but they definitely have more of an intelectual reasoning behind compared to left-wing attacks against Eduardo Leite when the only thing he did was to publicly come out of the closet. That’s just leftists scared of Eduardo Leite being the new Globo sweetheart and wanting to anticipate a narrative against him in order to assure they will keep social progressives away from supporting him (Kinda like: “Look, he supported homophobe Bolsonaro in 2018, so he doesn’t represent the gays!”).

Eduardo Leite positions on social issues vary. From my understanding he always supported gay marriage (if he didn’t, that would be something that justified harsher attacks on him) and also the legalization of Marijuana. But he opposes decriminalization of abortion, which tbh is the standard position from politicians because abortion is treated much more as a taboo in Brazil (and Latin America) in comparison with gay rights and weed.

Latin American countries like Uruguay and now Mexico were global pioneers in the weed topic. Brazil and Uruguay legalized gay marriage in 2013, earlier than lots of western countries that are seen as “progressive references” and Argentina did it even before, in 2010 (becoming one of the first 10 countries in the world to do so).

If you look at the abortion map though, Latin America lags way way behind. Argentina decriminalized it recently but that still was years later than everyone else in the world.

The weed topic is interesting because so far in the whole world it’s more limited only to North America (Canada, Mexico and specific parts of US), Uruguay, South Africa and Georgia (I think??). I wonder why that specific topic got popularized in North America first.

[Red Velvet]

New CNT poll released for the 2022 presidential election:

Lula (PT) 41,3%
Bolsonaro (no party) 26,6%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 5,9%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 5,9%
João Doria (PSDB) 2,1%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) 1,8%
Blank/nulls 8,6%
Undecided 7,8%

Runoff scenarios:
Lula 52,6% vs Bolsonaro 33,3%
Ciro Gomes 43,2% vs Bolsonaro 33,7%

Bolsonaro Government approval among Brazilians:
Disapprove 63% (+12)
Approve 34% (-10)

Variations indicated based on the February 2021 poll from the same institute.

They also asked what is the bigger priority for voters in the 2022 election:

Not reelect Bolsonaro 45,1%
Not elect Lula 27,7%
Neither of the options 21,2%

[Red Velvet]

Antipetismo in shambles. You love to see it.

Excluding blank/nulls and undecideds, that’s 49,4% of the valid votes in the 1st round for Lula.

For a candidate to win without a runoff, they need to get 50% or more of the valid votes. Which means there is the possibility of not even happening a runoff. Which would be a first for PT in presidential election, it’s only something PSDB has done it in the 90s. All 4 of their victories happened with a runoff.

1989: Runoff happens
Collor (PRN) 30,5%
Lula (PT) 17,2%
Brizola (PDT) 16,5%
Mário Covas (PSDB) 11,5%

1994: PSDB wins with no runoff
FHC (PSDB) 54,2%
Lula (PT) 27,1%

1998: PSDB wins with no runoff
FHC (PSDB) 53,1%
Lula (PT) 31,7%
Ciro Gomes (PPS) 11,0%

2002: Runoff happens
Lula (PT) 46,4%
José Serra (PSDB) 23,2%
Anthony Garotinho (PSB) 17,9%
Ciro Gomes (PPS) 12,0%

2006: Runoff happens
Lula (PT) 48,6%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) 41,6%

2010: Runoff happens
Dilma (PT) 46,9%
José Serra (PSDB) 32,6%
Marina Silva (PV) 19,3%

2014: Runoff happens
Dilma (PT) 41,6%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 33,5%
Marina Silva (PSB) 21,3%

2018: Runoff happens
Bolsonaro (PSL) 46,0%
Haddad (PT) 29,3%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 12,5%

CNT 2022 Projection (valid votes): Just barely a runoff happens
Lula (PT) 49,4%
Bolsonaro (no party) 31,8%

Listed only candidates that achieved to get 10%+ in the 1st round of the vote.

[Red Velvet]

Eduardo Leite criticism is just because he’s from PSDB, leans towards right-wing economic politics and never had specific LGBT policy history of fighting. As if someone wasn’t allowed to be that just because they’re gay. But I’ve never seen him openly wanting to start a personal feud against the gay community he’s a part of, actively antagonizing LGBT policies.

Arguably supporting Bolsonaro is more effective at antagonizing pro-LGBT policies than actively attacking them. It also carries the stench of hypocrisy with him.

Right, but I also don’t like the idea that all LGBT people necessarily MUST vote thinking about LGBT issues first above everything else. As if this was the only thing that defined them.

Someone might be gay but for example, absolutely hate PT economic policies. Who am I to tell them what has to be their priority? Eduardo Leite might dislike Bolsonaro for his homophobic stances but dislike PT even more for other policy disagreements. Economically, Eduardo Leite is closer to Bolsonaro/the right anyways, but more of a competent version based on what he did in his state.

However, it’s totally valid for people who have LGBT rights as a priority (regardless of who they are) to hold that as a reason for not supporting Leite more than the fact he’s gay. But it’s still one year for the elections and I don’t agree with the left that Leite came out of the closet with electoral purposes. I would imagine being a gay in the center-right actually can bring more negatives than positives, especially when you want to run for president?

That’s why my impression was that the left was anticipating an opposition in a moment that wasn’t appropriate, after he just came out. They even tried to oust the RN Governor (from PT) as a lesbian in order to have a narrative competition, but the fact is that even if she’s really a lesbian, she never came out in a public way, so Leite is the first assumed LGBT Governor from Brazil and that’s still an important landmark whether you like him or not.

That doesn’t mean you have to vote for him, much less like him. But it was the moment to congratulate him for the attitude and celebrate the social advance it represents, to have a governor gay (and not just a gay governor in the way Leite referred to himself in order to appeal to the straights).

[Red Velvet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1412444988370264066

https://mobile.twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1412442597277249539

[Red Velvet]

DataFolha new poll about opinions on Bolsonaro government:

General opinion about the Bolsonaro government?
Great/Good 24% (-)
Regular 24% (-6)
Bad/Awful 51% (+6)
Don’t Know 1% (-)

How do you usually trust the president declarations?
Always Trust 15%
Sometimes Trust 28%
Never Trust 55%
Don’t Know 1%

How competent the president is?
Competent 36%
Incompetent 58%
Don’t Know 5%

How honest the president is?
Honest 38%
Dishonest 52%
Don’t Know 10%

How intelligent the president is?
Very intelligent 39%
Not very intelligent 57%
Don’t Know 4%

How authentic the president is?
Sincere 39%
Fake 55%
Don’t Know 6%

How confident the president is?
Decided 41%
Undecided 57%
Don’t Know 3%

How Democratic the president is?
Democratic 28%
Authoritarian 66%
Don’t Know 6%

How prepared is the president to lead the country?
Prepared 34%
Unprepared 62%
Don’t Know 4%

Who do you think the president respects more?
Respects more the poor 17%
Respects more the rich 66%
Don’t Know 16%

What do you think about corruption in the Bolsonaro government?
Exists 70%
Doesn’t exist 23%
Don’t Know 7%

What is your expectation about corruption in the government?
It will grow worse 56%
It will diminish for better 13%
It will stay about the same 26%
Don’t Know 5%

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro isn’t in good physical shape, the stress is clearly having physical effects on his health. In his speeches today he couldn’t say one phrase without hiccuping, coughing or burping. Stomach is the part of the body that feels effects from stress the strongest, which is why gastritis is usually associated with high anxiety levels.

He is panicking.

It’s weird, but I do feel some sympathy for him. No matter how awful the person is, it doesn’t bring satisfaction to see anyone suffering. Hope he gets treatment but he needs to resign first in order to get rid from the source of the stress. There’s no fully going back but if he stays longer, the consequences could be worse for him.

[Red Velvet]

I think he just enjoys being a villain and feel like he’s part of a global “populist right” villain club.

Like, his nearly 30 year career as a parasite congressmen was all about making disgusting comments and antagonizing people to get media. He energetically feeds himself on that sh**t.

If he was forced into a more “presidential” behavior it probably wouldn’t be as fun being evil for him. The fun is in exhibiting it to everyone and making tons of people mad, so that he can feel more powerful or something.

Of the 3 big LatAm countries, he really was supposed to be the international darling of western media because of the neoliberal economic positions, since Mexico and Argentina are currently led by the left. And I do usually think that even though US current leaders are ideologically much closer to Lula than to Bolsonaro, the geopolitics of having a more neutral and multilateral Brazil is not very appealing to them in comparison with having US-submissive Trump bootlicker Bolsonaro. But what we see happening is the opposite, he’s by far the most hated of the three.

And yet what you see everywhere is him getting trashed to high heavens lmao. But ESPECIALLY on the West (US + Europe). The international brand constructed by Bolsonaro is locked and sealed because he openly antagonized and provoked international leaders and people in the same way he always antagonized and provoked the left here for 30 years.

The most I see of international praise for him is from delusional sectors from the Latin American right convinced that his strongman model is the solution to erasing the left in their countries (see: Fujimoristas in Peru, or angry anti-Peronist Argentinians). Someone needs to warn them that Bolsonaro is actually reviving the left with how hated he is.

If the right wants to be strong they need to unite on a party and a clear platform without the authoritarian fascist stuff. But it’s a long term and difficult job that they don’t have patience to invest in. The PT managed to be an extremely resilient party, getting 45% (!!!) in their absolute worst moment in history when everyone sounded to be against them (if you were PT defender in 2018 you could be spanked on the street). But it took almost 15 years of losses in order to gain penetration within marginalized sectors of society that are always ignored, before they could actually win the presidency.

The right is way more disorganized and less rational even though they’re more powerful imo. They sometimes unite under a random candidate from a “who??” party (PRN in 1989, PSL in 2018), who then is a complete failure partially because of lack of a strong party structure that gives them support both internally in congress and with bases outside. And then they are able to do almost nothing, besides not really lasting too long in power. Bolsonaro knows this is his fate and that’s why he wants a coup, it’s the only opportunity for him to save himself.

Like them or not (some of the more radical right-wingers now claim they’re too “moderate”) PSDB still represents the only successful project that the right managed to put into power. A good project isn’t one that you like more on paper, but the one that is viable and that gets to be done. And as I said before, never in the history of this country economic neoliberal policies advanced so much as they did in the 90s.

Things is, the right is often way more obsessed with their hate for the left (including their successes) than with forming their own project of a country and more importantly, creating a line of dialogue with society to discuss it.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro is in the hospital with stomach pains

🦀 time? (not holding my breath but…)

I see this just a populist media spectacle. He’s sick but will hype that up and use that to gain sympathy like he used it in 2018. The public pictures from him in the hospital are especially designed for that, what other public figures release their images in the hospital bed? lmao

He needs the victim narrative back from 2018 to counterbalance his popularity loss and deconstruction of image caused by the COVID Investigation commitee in congress.

[Red Velvet]

So now besides the righties being influenced by US brand of right wing authoritarianism and stupidity, we also have some of the lefties desperate to emulate US woke progressives losing their minds because of statues lmao

It’s too much love, I guess? Thank heavens both Lula and Ciro are against that kind of excessive Identitary rage that simply DOESN’T translate well with most sectors of society and just creates more polarization. The strategy of both campaigns want to be focused on the economy, as it should be in order to win.

And if you want to talk about social issues, talk about the more than a half million dead on Covid due to the disastrous administration. THAT is something that will get you tons of support in necessary times. Not burning historical statues that shaped the identity and image of a state like you were this big revolutionary. It’s not right-wingers who get motivated by that thing, it’s average people who don’t really pay that much attention to politics but don’t like symbols they grew up with burned because now people suddenly realized that history of the country was bloody and racist.

Some people appear to want to think Brazil is some Latin American version of US and import some of their rules when they don’t apply or translate as well in Brazilian concept. Our own existence IS racist because the majority of us wouldn’t even be here if it wasn’t those European explorers murdering, stealing and raping people, so our own presence in this place is a reminder of racist history, especially considering how most of us have all some degree of mix between European, African and Indigenous. It’s bad to think about but it’s the history we have and the only one we have to show.

There isn’t any “good counterpart” to substitute those images, like US has with civil war ones because it was an internal conflict of them, so you might as well completely abolish historical statues shown in public places. Unless you want to substitute all statues by Indigenous leadership images that don’t get me wrong, it would be cool to have more of, but just aren’t the face of majority of Brazilian population anymore. So it would make no sense to only have Indigenous symbolism and hypocritical too, simply because a majority of us are more of descendants of the oppressive colonizers who committed the biggest genocide in all of global history, unfortunately. It is what it is, that’s just the reality.

If we want to completely erase racism, we need to leave the country and go somewhere else. But we wouldn’t fit anywhere because it’s precisely that confused and unique cultural background that makes us very different from Europeans or Africans. Racism is literally written on the Brazilian DNA. The paternal lineage of average Brazilian is heavily European while the Maternal lineage is heavily African or Indigenous. You just gotta add 2 + 2 to understand what that means.