Brazil General Discussion 2019: It's Slammer Time!

[Red Velvet]

The Federal Police, after receiving signed orders from president Bolsonaro, is investigating his 2022 presidential adversary Ciro Gomes for criticisms he made of the president in one interview, as it was an “insult against the president honor”. Ciro usually criticizes his political adversaries with harsh words, in that interview he called Bolsonaro a thief.

This week there were a lot of these type of news. Popular YouTuber Felipe Neto received a police intimation for insulting the president (that was one day later suspended), Police arrested a group of five protesters with a plaque saying the president was committing a genocide (they were all released later), etc.

None of these attacks on freedom of speech has really sticked so far but they will keep pushing for them because they are desperate. Popularity is down and COVID is about to get much much worse in the next 30 days here, we could see a tragedy. So they feel they need to make this to try to make people scared of voicing their opinions, it’s not a coincidence this is starting right at this specific moment. Because things are about to look real bad for the government.

Felipe Neto launched an initiative in which he will pay the legal defense of anyone who is intimated by the police for exercising their freedom of speech. It is called “Cala Boca Já Morreu” and consists of four law firms in a collaboration with Felipe.

That’s the website: https://www.calaabocajamorreu.com.br/

[Red Velvet]

I think these 30% that still support him will forever do it until they die lmao. I don’t see them switching back to PSDB now that they have been radicalized.

Certainly parallels to be drawn with certain other countries here

Do these "hardcore" voters skew to older people, as is quite often the case elsewhere?

I think it skews more to the youngest actually (between 16-24 years old):



Overall population: Bolsonaro 36% vs Lula 41%. Null and blank votes are 18%.

Radicalization is very associated with uncritical access to technology. And that’s something the youngest are more subjected to, just like populism and anti-establishment rhetoric.

Also, if you’re like 23 years old, all your life has basically been under the PT government so it’s more likely for this age group to perceive the left as the establishment. They didn’t live through the military dictatorship or the Collor government and were only babies or didn’t even exist during FHC government in the 90s. That’s how a right-wing speech promising change becomes appealing for them.

Bolsonaro is their first experience with the right and they aren’t old enough to be affected by the worst of his actions (COVID, economic stuff, etc)

Meanwhile, the “Millenial” demographic (between 25-44 years old) are easily the most against Bolsonaro. If you had to generalize an average Pro-Bolsonaro and Anti-Bolsonaro voter it would be like this:

Pro-Bolsonaro voter:
- Male
- Between 16 and 24 years old
- From the Center-West Region
- Middle Class voters

Agrobusiness is really supportive of Bolsonaro, probably the most loyal base after Evangelical Protestants. That reflects on the geography, Center-West is where the agrobusiness influence is by far the strongest.

Anti-Bolsonaro voter:
- Female
- Between 25 and 44 years old
- From the Northeast Region
- Low Income voters

It’s important to know that despite similarities with other places, such as the US, the Bolsonaro movement is extremely different (and more dangerous) than what Trump or other right wing populist movements are and operate under different logics and have different types of bases.

[Red Velvet]

Just to clear up, the previous Supreme Court had simply decided that Moro didn’t have competence to judge Lula as it belongs to a federal district tribunal and nullified the sentence. But the evidence presented by Moro could still be used.

This new decision considered Moro was biased in the condemnation against Lula, which also nullifies all the evidence presented in that process. Which means, an eventual new process will have to start from zero if it happens.

This recent understanding was deeply affected by the leaked hacked messages between ex-judge Moro and the prosecutors, released by The Intercept Brasil between 2018 and now. Minister Carmen Lucia altered her vote thanks to this, as her previous understanding was against Lula. According to some reports I read, she was shocked and angry with the content of the hacked messages.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro has fired six ministers, including Foreign Affairs and Defense - apparently to placate the centrão and/or the military.

The worst Foreign relations minister Brazil ever had in all its existence as a country by the way.

I feel Meh about it though because knowing Bolsonaro, the new guy is either exactly the same or even worse.

This is all for show to signal the government is changing under pressure from all sides, as Bolsonaro is at his weakest position in his term so far, making Centrão feel free to demand more positions in exchange of support.

And as Bolsonaro’s image gets more negative, the more expensive this support gets as Centrão congressmen risk their own electoral image with the association with the government in the moment COVID handling by the president shows to be a disaster, Lula returns, etc. That’s why they also pressure the government to be more competent and get rid of the bad names.

Getting rid of the Foreign minister is something Bolsonaro didn’t want but was politically forced to do. Too much pressure also coming from the never before seen huge negative reputation of Brazil internationally under Bolsonaro government. The stereotype of “samba, football and happy friendly people” changed to “Fascism, anti-environmentalism and stupidity”. Everyone hates Brazil nowadays, from China to the US, from India to Europe and even important Latin American allies like Argentina.

Brazil’s independent position from Lula’s government, reaching out to countries like Iran and focusing on more regional cooperation within Latin America went to a submissive one of automatic uncritical allignement with everything the crazy far-right defends and sh**ts on all its allies.

For example, Bolsonaro loves Israel and Saudi Arabia simply because that’s what is inside the far-right book, he doesn’t even understand why he has that position, he just blindly follows. And he only picks the worst aspects of these places while simply ignoring the good stuff, like, I wish he copied Israel’s vaccination strategy or liberal pro-LGBT stances since he loves there so much! (even though he happened put a neonazi as Brazil’s minister of culture once but surely it was just an accident).

I doubt the next Foreign minister will be significantly better, you gotta change the president in order to achieve that. But I suppose it’s nice that Bolsonaro is showing signs of collapse?

[Red Velvet]

You can be highly cynical about this, and almost certainly correctly so - but the mere fact Bolsonaro has felt the need to make these changes must tell us something?

Sure, it tells us that he’s very weak politically that he has to bow down to pressure. Pressure coming from his Centrão allies, from unsatisfied military actors, from external players, etc.

But the changes are mostly for the sake of signaling change, I don’t believe in any major change of heart in regards on how the government deals with the issues. Even if he nominated good people out of pressure, he would sabotage them when they happened to disagree with him on something and/or become more popular than him.

That’s what he did to Mandetta, minister of health fired in the beginning of the pandemic simply for being competent and pro-science. Bolsonaro didn’t like that he was getting more popular than him and saw that as a threat, later choosing to put a goon like Pazuello in the position.

You can be highly cynical about this, and almost certainly correctly so - but the mere fact Bolsonaro has felt the need to make these changes must tell us something?

It shows that the Bolsonaro government is more fragile, perhaps more fragile than any other moment since he took office on January 1st, 2019.

He needs to govern with the support of center and center-right parties ('Centrão'), putting new government ministers appointed by the Centrão, otherwise he may undergo an impeachment process and he may lose his position as president (which I don't think will occur until October 2022, until the new general elections), or else he can try to give a military coup d'état and install a dictatorship if Congress doesn't collaborate with him.

You gotta have major support for that though and he doesn’t have that either from the parliament, the media, the population or the military. Would be fun in these circumstances to see him and the crazies even try, at least it would be an excuse to get rid of them earlier, before 2022.

That’s why only thing he can do is to suck up to Centrão demands.

[Red Velvet]

New XP/Ipespe poll!

1st round:

Lula (PT) 29%
Bolsonaro (no party) 28%
Sérgio Moro (no party) 9%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9%
-
Luciano Huck (no party) 5%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 3%
João Doria (PSDB) 3%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) 3%

Runoff scenarios:

Bolsonaro 38% vs Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 30% vs Sérgio Moro 30%
Bolsonaro 38% vs Ciro Gomes 38%
Bolsonaro 35% vs Luciano Huck 32%
Bolsonaro 37% vs João Doria 30%

Interesting to notice that Bolsonaro vote intention goes up as the more left-wing his opponent is, but so does the percentage of the opponent. Lula performs the best with 42%, then Ciro with 38%, centrist Luciano Huck with 32% and then finally the two more “right-wing” options Doria and Moro have only 30%.

More polarization leads to increased turnout from both sides, I guess. Notice how in a Lula vs Bolsonaro contest there’s only 20% of people who didn’t make up their mind yet or would nullify/not vote. In a Bolsonaro vs Moro match up that % doubles up to 40% because that’s basically an “eh whatever” election, especially to people on the left, who would abstain. But also to people on the right who like both and would be in doubt.

[Red Velvet]

The same poll asked Brazilians about their approval of the Bolsonaro administration:

Disapprove: 60% (+4)
Approve: 33% (-5)

Only 7% of people don’t have a formed opinion about the government. Net of approval is -27%, the lowest point in the Bolsonaro administration, surpassing the previous one from June 2020 of -25%:



The curve totally matches the chronology of the emergency checks given to the poor because of the pandemic, starting in June 2020 and ending in December 2020. You can notice Bolsonaro approval becoming better during that period.

But since then, it’s only going down.

[Red Velvet]

I wonder if there will be any major states realignment in 2022.

Pre-Lula, you could say Rio de Janeiro + Rio Grande do Sul were the most left-wing states. Because of their history and generally being the more progressive states.

After Lula was elected, there were some shifts. The Northeast region, which has lowest development index of Brazil and was once perceived as more conservative, became a major PT stronghold and was decisive in giving the party 4 consecutive victories. Elections became more class oriented, with lower income groups voting for PT and higher income ones for PSDB.

During Lula years you basically had the Northeast + Majority of the North + Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro voting for the left. While the Midwest + South + Roraima and Rondônia + São Paulo loyally voting for the right (PSDB). Places where agrobusiness also has more influence tends to vote for the right.

Now with Bolsonaro things may shift a bit. I think there’s significant rejection against him coming from São Paulo since he got elected. Not sure if it has something to do with him antagonizing the state or just that São Paulo naturally tends to dislike more populist candidates. But a recent poll showed that Lula and Bolsonaro are tied in the state (!!!) and it’s a state in which Bolsonaro had like 67% in 2018.

São Paulo historically votes to the right of Rio de Janeiro since redemocratization. But in 2018 they pretty much were aligned with similar Bolsonaro percentages, although that was more of an evidence of Rio’s hard turn to the right with Bolsonaro than any shift to the left of São Paulo.

However, I think there’s a chance that in 2022 we could see São Paulo voting to the left of Rio. Too early to tell and one poll is not enough. But I do get the vibe Bolsonaro is crumbling faster there than in Rio.

Also, I think Amazonas may stay as a Bolsonaro state, even though they voted for PT with Lula and Dilma. They were one of the places with the strongest anti-lockdown protests coming from the population.

Those are currently my predictions for 2022:



And just for comparison, those were the Bolsonaro vs Haddad results in 2018:

[Red Velvet]

Skeptical about this poll as it shows Lula winning in ALL regions and it’s still hard for me to see the Midwest and South go that strongly for him. The Midwest numbers especially, so don’t buy them. Lots of things are weird.

This poll also shows Lula winning in all demographics except MALE one and the HIGHEST INCOME one. Which is also is hard to believe, these are indeed the demographics I imagine going harder for Bolsonaro but I doubt it’s the ONLY ones.

I wonder why Female voters would favor Lula 61% vs 23% out of nowhere. It’s a more favorable margin than the Northeast one for Lula.

Previous poll from SAME institute showed the youngest being the most pro-Bolsonaro and now they’re the most pro-Lula. Doesn’t make sense.

But maybe Lula suddenly just got tons of hype after the Supreme Court decision. We need numbers from other institutes to confirm or discredit this trend.

[Red Velvet]

We can’t handle things as they are until October 2022 though.

Institutions better get rid of him at least in this year. He has given MULTIPLE reasons for impeachment. Didn’t these people impeach Dilma based on the argument of “creative accountings”?

I know impeachment is a political trial and has nothing to do with fairness, but c’mon. Politically get his ass out before the destruction is completely irreversible.

The installment of the Covid parliamentary comittee of investigation is a start, I guess. But it had to be focused on the federal government only, I fear those sold-outs in congress won’t do anything.

[Red Velvet]

Is Bolsonaro giving up? I’m starting to think he doesn’t even care at this point by the consistency of saying nonsense stuff.

Today he compared Lula with Jesus Christ from the Bible () and said that social programs for the poor from him are like when Jesus miraculously multiplied bread and then people went after him asking for more.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RenanPeixoto_/status/1384209269269041157
I think that is supposed to paint both Lula and Jesus as communists? Which is confusing because that association sounds like something that can make Lula be more positively seen by religious people who voted for Bolsonaro. I don’t understand.

[Red Velvet]

Exame poll

1st round:

Lula (PT) 34%
Bolsonaro (No party) 33%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9%
Luciano Huck (No party) 6%
João Doria (PSDB) 4%
João Amoedo (NOVO) 3%
Henrique Mandetta (DEM) 3%
Danilo Gentili (No party) 2%
Undecided 5%
Blank/Null 4%

Runoff scenarios:

Lula 40% vs Bolsonaro 38%
Bolsonaro 44% vs Ciro Gomes 34%
Bolsonaro 40% vs Luciano Huck 38%
Bolsonaro 46% vs João Doria 29%
Bolsonaro 45% vs Eduardo Leite 22% (Leite is an alternative to Doria to run as the PSDB candidate)
Bolsonaro 45% vs Sérgio Moro 31%
Bolsonaro 42% vs Henrique Mandetta 23%
Lula 42% vs Ciro Gomes 36%

[Red Velvet]

Better for Bolsonaro than previous recent polls?

Different polling institutes. You can only compare it to the previous EXAME poll and Bolsonaro actually lost intention of vote compared to the previous poll, in which he was the leading candidate and won the runoff scenario against everyone.

[Red Velvet]

Just one day after the climate summit in which he adopted a different tone in regards the protection of the environment, Bolsonaro has made cuts in investimentos destined to the environment 

Biden has classified the Bolsonaro announcements as “encouraging news”. These people will simply pretend to buy that Bolsonaro changed his stances because of the new rhetoric while his actions keep stimulating the destruction of the forests and Indigenous communities.

The big talk is all just for the show and virtue-signaling, not for the good of the environment. From both leaderships. Real change of actions should be the focus, not more friendly speech rhetoric.

[Red Velvet]

I just hope the liberal sectors of left aren’t dumb enough and don’t sabotage Lula by pushing excessive focus into social issues when that’s what gave Bolsonaro strength in 2018 alongside the anticorruption populism.

Just push the obvious message that the country and Brazilians were much better during Lula years and that now everyone is damned with no opportunities. Economic power has decreased a lot. It’s an easy win that hopefully they cannot destroy.

[Red Velvet]

My opinion about these findings about Sputnik vaccine is that either the Brazilian institute found real evidence about its unsafety (which assuming is the case and I don’t doubt it, has global repercussions as many other countries like Argentina started using it) OR it’s a political decision in order to block that particular vaccine here and prevent Northeastern governors (who started a deal with Russian government) to get very ahead in the vaccination in their states, taking away political points from Bolsonaro.

Both theories are pretty valid IMO

[Red Velvet]

1st round poll:



Runoff scenarios polls:



This happened in Rio de Janeiro this week:

https://mobile.twitter.com/_Tsardinha/status/1390442693956866051
People from the other Brazilian cities are probably correct to be scared of my Rio. This is basically death penalty (illegal) being given and without trials.

[Red Velvet]

New DataFolha poll

DataFolha is the most common pollster alongside IBOPE during Brazilian election.

1st round poll:

Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 23%
Sérgio Moro 7%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Luciano Huck 4%
João Doria 3%
Henrique Mandetta 2%
João Amoedo 2%

Runoff simulations:

Lula 55% vs Bolsonaro 32%
Lula 53% vs Sérgio Moro 33%
Lula 57% vs João Doria 21%
Ciro Gomes 48% vs Bolsonaro 36%
João Doria 40% vs Bolsonaro 39%

Rejection rates (% who say they wouldn’t vote for that candidate):

Bolsonaro 54%
Lula 36%
João Doria 30%
Luciano Huck 29%
Sérgio Moro 26%
Ciro Gomes 24%

These results actually make me want to vote for Ciro more in the hopes someone in the 3rd path takes Bolsonaro out from the runoff lol.

That said, these results sound optimistic while the XP poll pessimistic. XP tends to overestimate the right and DataFolha overestimated the left in 2020 mayoral elections.

If I had to guess, reality is probably something in between. I would think Lula is definitely 1st, but not on an almost +20% lead in the 1st round. Something like Lula in the middle 30s percentage and Bolsonaro in the high 20s percentage is more likely. With Lula winning runoff with a similar margin that Bolsonaro won in 2018.

[Red Velvet]

Demographic groups that favor each candidate the most:

LULA:

- People who support Social Isolation measures during the pandemic: 58%
- People from the Northeast region: 56%
- Low education (Finished middle school): 51%
- Income less than two minimum wages per month: 47%

BOLSONARO:
- People who are normally living their regular lives during the pandemic: 36%
- Income between 5 and 10 minimum wages: 30%
- Men: 29%
- People from the South, Center-West or North regions: 28%


Interesting result that led me to believe this is overestimating the left a bit, even if I think Lula has lots of significant support in that demographic (way more than average leftist):

Evangelicals
Lula 35% vs Bolsonaro 34%

Ciro Gomes performs in his best among the people who finished university (11%) and among the richest (13%).

João Doria clearly is the weakest candidate despite the vaccine success, he hasn’t been able to translate that into vote intention.

Luciano Huck and Sergio Moro aren’t going to run and it’s embarrassing that these institutes keep pushing them as likely options.

[Red Velvet]

DataFolha also questioned Brazilians about their opinion about the Bolsonaro government:

Great/Good: 24% (-6)
Regular: 30% (+6)
Bad/Awful: 45% (+1)
No opinion: 1% (-1)

[Red Velvet]

Lol at both Lula and Bolsonaro having better percentages with men than with women.

Kinda expected though? Lula and the PT always performed better with men, while women tended to favor more the center-right PSDB.

Then after PSDB fall and the Bolsonaro rise, things shifted in 2018. Women favored Haddad while men voted for Bolsonaro, as Haddad and the left became the more “boring” option.

I think it’s safe to say that men are more inclined to personalism and passionate rhetoric while women are kinda more centrists, against radical change.

Brazilian men are way more emotional and vote for the candidate they love, women are more controlled and think more before choosing someone.

So not a surprise that the gender gap is larger with Bolsonaro than with Lula, as Lula this time is the more “logical” and pragmatic option between the two.

Men only favor Lula more than Women by +2 (42% with Men, 40% with Women).

With Bolsonaro, men like him more by +10 (29% Men, 19% Women).

Female voters are more likely to look outside the box for a 3rd option, as they’re more reflexive of their vote. Men are more impulsive and go with the flow. Unlike Lula and Bolsonaro, every other candidate does better with women in comparison with men.

[Red Velvet]

I don’t comment cause I don’t have sh**t to say but I appreciate both of y’all for keeping me up to date with Brazil

You’re welcome, if you have any questions feel free to ask.

I still firmly believe Bolsonaro will win re-election in 2022. He wasn't expected to win in 2018 and he did. Besides, the military is entirely behind him.

He has chances but not because of the military.

The military is divided. On one hand, Bolsonaro gives them tons of representation in his government and prioritized them in terms of federal budget. He did that because he WISHES that can buy him their unconditional support. So that makes them comfortable with him.

On the other hand, by being inside his government they associate their images with his image. That includes all the anti-science BS, the antivaxx craziness, the racism and authoritarianism, etc. Which can be damaging to their reputation as a serious institution, since Bolsonaro is not a serious person.

The Brazilian military came out post-dictatorship very hated, making them pursue a more clean image. Part of that includes investment on scientific projects for example, in order to make them look like specialists on some areas. Which was helpful for them to create a new image of serious and respectable institution.

Bolsonaro is destroying all that, I mean, the participation of military actors inside the Bolsonaro government. Older upper active members specifically, are very uncomfortable with that because not only it’s making more people go back to seeing them in a similar way from the past, but it’s also giving them this new image of incompetence and stupidity. The health minister was a member of the military and he was a failure, being roasted by the media and different sectors of society.

So they’re in this position of “We don’t like how Bolsonaro is making we look super-dumb but getting privileges is cool”. They will keep being parasites inside the Bolsonaro government but so far it’s unlikely they are willing to follow him in everything he does considering his image is toxic and doesn’t give them credibility.

Actually, Bolsonaro already tried to have his coup by planning to close the Supreme Court behind doors but the main military leaders refused to do so. Which made him pissed, as he wants them to be HIS military, not the military of the country. That happened at the start of the pandemic, I think May 2020.

So I think at least so far it’s unlikely that the military is willing to completely sacrifice themselves for scum like Bolsonaro. They are more independent actors than that, if they wanted a coup they most certainly would get rid of Bolsonaro as well so that they could rule without his presence destroying their reputation and credibility.

Regarding elections, there isn’t much they can or even want to do. Bolsonaro is getting crazy with the prospects of losing election so he is pushing for congress to abolish electronic voting and to go back to paper voting, since paper vote is less safe and gives him opportunities to rig.

[Red Velvet]

The Supreme Court in Brazil is very corrupt

Are they? That’s news to me. I’m very concerned now.

I think US politicians from both parties are very corrupt as well but there isn’t a system strong enough to supervise them and discover all the hidden dirt. I think democracy should completely end in the US for its well-being and best interests because clearly it’s a system that will always put crooks in the likes of Hillary and Trump into the spotlight, as it’s all an excuse for secret hidden powers to rig everything from the start.

Hopefully together we can all change this disgusting dirt ruling over the world! I’m with you.

[Red Velvet]

Lula has just confirmed that he will be a candidate for President!

Lula 2002 propaganda:

[Red Velvet]

Ex-president FHC (PSDB) had a public meeting with Lula and said that if the 2022 runoff ends up being between Lula and Bolsonaro, he will easily vote for Lula.

Nice gesture after the PT and PSDB rivalry reached its peak in 2014, with Aécio Neves literally not recognizing his loss. I always respected PSDB leaders like Serra, Alckmin and FHC, even if I don’t like them politically. But I never respected Aécio.