2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Stuart98]

The Dems should see if the PA Supreme Court would be willing to crack Philly. Unlikely but it's worth a try with a friendly judicial body.

Cracking Philly doesn't help in the congressional map unless you splits Bucks, the parts of Philly adjoining PA-01 are fairly Republican and the other districts adjoining Philly are already solidly D. PA-01 going into southern Montgomery is actually bluer than if it goes into Philadelphia. My fair map actually does crack Philly a bit to get all three districts in it majority minority, but this hurts Dems by removing the bluest parts of Montgomery from PA-04, turning it into a swing district. (My map compensates for this elsewhere by making PA-10 into a Trump/Biden district)

[Stuart98]

Fair map:


President 2016:
President 2020 numbers:
The 3rd is 51.8% BVAP; the 2nd is 49.1% WVAP, 21.2% HVAP, 20.2% BVAP; the 5th is 49.0% WVAP, 33.6% BVAP, 10.9% AVAP.

DRA link.

[Stuart98]

How is that excavation of Pittsburgh supposed to be fair?

Pittsburgh is kept whole, and the district its in is 69% the current 18th, while the 17th is 73% the current 17th. Even if I had done more to put the towns most like Pittsburgh with it, the result would still have been more than 70% WVAP; a proper minority access district is not possible in western PA. Even with the decidedly D-favored Pittsburgh configuration, the plan as a whole still has a mild Republican lean according to tools like PlanScore.

[Stuart98]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/20/us/politics/house-democrat-retirements.html

Doyle expects something very similar to my map in Pittsburgh it seems.

[Stuart98]

the **** is this ****

[Stuart98]

This map was apparently created by Pennsylvania redistricting activist Amanda Holt, though oddly it's missing from her website, unlike 4 other plans she submitted.

Currently uploading it into DRA, will post once I have it uploaded for further analysis.

[Stuart98]

DRA link.

8D-9R by Pres 2020, 7D-10R by Pres 2016.

[Stuart98]

http://amandae.com/

Oh its actually some actual activist who proposed it and not just a GOP consultant. She was even part of the 2018 lawsuit?

Seems like it was some prototype that she pursued solely to get as close to zero deviation as possible and subsequently abandoned. Also note that it's using official census population deviation - I thought PA legally has to use prison population reallocated numbers?