NV: Pro-Trump group internal (Trump +5) and GOP group internal (Biden +1)

[kwabbit]

The thing is, even Trump +5 isn't crazy given NV will be close. Outliers like that will happen. but Trump +12-14 is just on another planet.

Trump +5 is not an outlier. Trump +12/14 is one, but MC had Trump +11 a few weeks ago. Polling average w/ NYT poll is now Trump +7. A Biden +1 internal is about as much of an outlier as the NYT poll, even if the Biden +1 is magnitudes likelier to be the final outcome.

Polling is a snapshot, and the current state of the race in Nevada is a Trump blowout. Ralston probably sees more NV internals than anyone and he has echoed the Trump +5-7 public state of the race.

[kwabbit]

The thing is, even Trump +5 isn't crazy given NV will be close. Outliers like that will happen. but Trump +12-14 is just on another planet.

Trump +5 is not an outlier. Trump +12/14 is one, but MC had Trump +11 a few weeks ago. Polling average w/ NYT poll is now Trump +7. A Biden +1 internal is about as much of an outlier as the NYT poll, even if the Biden +1 is magnitudes likelier to be the final outcome.

Polling is a snapshot, and the current state of the race in Nevada is a Trump blowout. Ralston probably sees more NV internals than anyone and he has echoed the Trump +5-7 public state of the race.

Would disagree on this, because we were also getting these types of polls last fall while simultaneously getting Biden +1 in both CNN and a GOP internal.

Honestly, I don't really think Ralston is all he has cracked up to be (and I made the clear in 2022 as well)

I don't think Ralston is a wizard, but he is the most prominent Nevada political reporter. He probably sees more Nevada internal polling than anyone. If the public polling for NV is averaging Trump +7 and he says the internals more or less say the same thing, the conclusion is that Trump is up by a lot in Nevada, at least according to the polling universe. Nevada Dems have a great ground game and stand a good chance to beat the polls, but it's not like polls can ever pick up the effect of the Culinary Union.