This literally lines up with most averages…
Yup, though Biden would almost certainly lose the EC with a 1 pt. national lead. I believe he needs 2-3 pts. to have a decent shot at 270.
If Biden wins with the EC with a 1pt PV victory, the Sunbelt would have to have trended right. GA, AZ, NV, and NC would be nearly guaranteed to have gone to Trump. Biden is bleeding in safe states because they are diverse, which also why they are Democratic, but the bleeding would also carry over to all diverse states, enough to flip the Sunbelt states. The only way you could think there would be bleeding in only the safe states is if you don't have a permission structure to acknowledge Biden losing a swing state, which might not be the case for you but definitely is for some.
