Not sure if this has more weight than actual economic data, but regardless the current consumer sentiment is already baked in. People may think the economy is bad, but they’re spending like it’s good, and that’s the real benchmark.
And even with lower consumer sentiment, Biden is still competitive. Barring an economic crash, this election won’t be fought over the economy. It matters, but as 2022 showed (when inflation and economic uncertainty was even higher) other issues mattered just as much if not more.
Perceptions about the economy are arguably more important than true economic conditions, which have also degraded in the past six months. Biden's JA on the economy is lower than his overall JA, as voters are judging him on how they think the economy is as a whole than their personal circumstances. Maybe Biden gets some credit for consumption being high or people feeling comfortable about their own circumstances, but clearly not very much given his economic approval is 35%.
I don't think the economy will be especially significant this election compared to how it typically is, but it's definitely hurting Biden, not helping him. Trump's ratings on the economy were always much better than his overall ratings and that massively buoyed his 2020 campaign. Do you not remember the disaster that was Trump's final year in office and how he almost won the election despite that? Positive feelings about Trump's handling of the economy is still his greatest asset and if Biden loses that will be an easy thing to point to as to why.
