Biden probably wins Oklahoma county in this scenario
I think we've reached the point where there isn't anyone left for R's to flip in Oklahoma, and possibly in all the Plains states. I do expect these states to trend left over the decade, but most likely very gradually. Kansas might reasonably be a presidential swing state in the 2030's.
Kansas will not become a swing state. It might trend to the edge of competitiveness, like Iowa level, but the ingredients are just not there for it to become a swing state. Too White and not educated enough. It's slightly above average education rate has pulled it leftwards in a political environment increasingly polarized around education, but every other demographic indicator points to it being a red state.
