Pollsters love hedging. If any pollster bought a CCM win from the early vote or from Ralston, I doubt Laxalt would be up in every poll conducted during the EV period.
As to Matty’s point: you’re right, Ralston’s model does suggest if Republicans get 5% crossover and win Indies by 10 points a 5% Laxalt result isn’t out of the question. My mistake. I don’t think it’s going to happen, and I don’t think it jives with the advantage the Dems have in Washoe at the moment, but I accept that it’s within the realm of possibility.
One can easily argue they did. Emerson went from Heller +7 three weeks out to Rosen +5 right before the election, HarrisX went from Heller +1 three days out to Rosen +2 on the final day. They were the only pollsters to have polls before the EV period/Ralston prediction and after the EV period/Ralston prediction.
