2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[kwabbit]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

Agree with all. Vallas is basically the Bill Daley of this cycle. He’ll win downtown and the bungalow areas on the outskirts.

Will be interesting to see who performs best on the north side. Lightfoot probably, I guess.

I don’t think Johnson wins much of anywhere.

Respectfully, I really just don't see where Lightfoot gets any impressive support. Who does she appeal to at this point? If her best support is 18% from black voters, I don't see where she is going to do consistently solid anywhere on the map.

Might Lightfoot overperform polling because of an incumbency factor? I imagine if that happened it would be most present in Black wards and maybe Hispanic wards.

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/CorStrategies/status/1630538500234723333?s=20

According to NYT we won’t get ward results till midnight CT

As in there won’t be votes by precinct/ward but there will be a citywide vote? Or just nothing until midnight central.

[kwabbit]

The defacto GOP Candidate with the early lead:

Paul Vallas
12,483 +35.5%35.5%
Brandon Johnson
6,245 +17.8%17.8
Lori Lightfoot*incumbent
5,945 +16.9%16.9
Jesús G. García
5,072 +14.4%14.4
Willie Wilson
3,504 +10.0%10.0

7% in

So is this number a complete black box or could you cross reference for which aldermanic elections are in to get a sense of where it’s coming from?

[kwabbit]

Shameful that Chicago humanitarian and businessman Willie Wilson didn't make it to the runoff. 

Crap, the $100 I put down for Willie to win outright in the first round didn’t pan out.

[kwabbit]

I think the runoff starts as a tossup. Vallas is starting pretty high up, given that’ll he’ll be 34-35% of the vote. He should stand to capture a large chunk of Willie Wilson voters, more moderate Lightfoot voters, more conservative Hispanic voters who voted for Chuy because he was the Hispanic option, and some of the lesser candidates. I think he’s closer to Eric Adams’ position than Caruso’s.

[kwabbit]

Not a Chicago expert, but Vallas only getting 33.8% (which will likely go lower with more VBMs counted I presume) as basically the only conservative in the race seems to bode well for Johnson? In theory, he'd coalesce the Johnson-Lightfoot-Garcia #s at least, right?

Willie Wilson is more conservative than Vallas. His voters might coalesce around Johnson because Johnson is now the Black candidate, but not because they agree with Johnson ideologically. Wilson is also friends with Vallas, so he might endorse him over Johnson and that could sway things.

Chuy will endorse Johnson, but plenty of his support was identity based with Hispanics and they could buck at the progressive Johnson. This is also true with Lightfoot, although she could endorse anyone.

This race should be treated as a tossup. Vallas might seem too conservative for Chicago, but the median voter doesn’t view him as a Republican, even though that conservative perception is his biggest hindrance. The number one issue is crime and it’s clear that the majority sides with Vallas on that one.

[kwabbit]

Not a Chicago expert, but Vallas only getting 33.8% (which will likely go lower with more VBMs counted I presume) as basically the only conservative in the race seems to bode well for Johnson? In theory, he'd coalesce the Johnson-Lightfoot-Garcia #s at least, right?

I’ve been seeing this take a lot. I’m not sure why people are assuming Lightfoot or Chuy voters would be a lock for Johnson.

Wasn't Lightfoot's strongest constituency black voters? If Johnson was a strong 2nd in those areas, why would they then vote for Vallas?

Willie Wilson got second place in most Black wards. Johnson was third and did better than Vallas, but he's neither from the South Side, has strong institutional ties to the South Side, nor is he ideologically congruent with most South Side Black voters.

Johnson is going to win the Black wards in the runoff, but it matters if it's 65-35 or 90-10.

[kwabbit]

I think people are severely underrating Johnson. In the first round, Vallas's coalition was Republicans, low college whites, and some Hispanics while Johnson's was high college whites and some blacks. It seems obvious to me that the latter has more upside; the only real question is whether that upside is enough to overcome a 14 point deficit. Here, I think, are some of the keys:

1. A core part of Lightfoot's pitch was racial solidarity as opposed to ideology, and to a limited extent it seems to have worked. Now that she's eliminated, though, I think it's pretty clear that Johnson will take the lion's share of those voters for the same reason. This is especially true because Vallas broadly did pretty poorly in these areas.

2. Wilson's voters are a bit more of a question mark because of how conservative he is. I tend to think they'll broadly go to Johnson too, but if he does endorse Vallas that could matter.

3. Garcia obviously won't endorse Vallas, but Vallas was pretty strong among Hispanics, at least relatively speaking. Then again, you could argue that perhaps many conservative Hispanics selfselected into the Vallas camp in the first round already. Again, I think it will matter if Garcia endorses Johnson.

4. Turnout will probably go up in the runoff, which I suspect will benefit Johnson somewhat.

Vallas dominated the Magnificent Mile, winning most of the downtown area easily. Vallas is not just winning Republicans and ethnic Whites. He's obviously doing very well among the wealthy and educated Whites that live in these neighborhoods. It's more fair to say that Johnson is winning the progressive neighborhoods on the North Side while Vallas is winning the business oriented downtown neighborhoods.

If this was NYC, Vallas would be winning FiDi and the Upper East Side. Johnson might be winning Park Slope. It's not a Johnson sweep.

[kwabbit]

Did Lughfoot win a plurality of wards and still come in 3rd?

By my count Vallas won 19, Lightfoot 16, Johnson 9, and Chuy 6. Vallas won majorities in 11, Lightfoot none, Johnson none, and Chuy 2.

The turnout differences are honestly insane given that the wards have equal populations. Cop ward 19 had 21k votes while the Black South Side wards had roughly 10k each, and the Hispanic West Side wards had 6k each.

Johnson needs to get a strong turnout from the South Side to win this. Wilson is probably going to endorse Vallas and Lightfoot no one. Even if Johnson is winning these wards 75/25, if they're turning out at 1/2 rate of the White ethnic wards they can be swamped.

Another thing that stood out to be for turnout is how weak downtown was. Maybe because it's younger and has less native Chicagoans, but West Loop had 8k and Mag Mile had 10k. Vallas' performance in downtown really surprised me, although the Chicago downtown has some history of that. I was expecting the rapid development of the area to bring in more Johnson types.

[kwabbit]

If the Black establishment is in favor of Vallas, no way Johnson wins. He needed to run the table in the South Side. Lightfoot might not endorse, but Willie is certainly going to be endorsing Vallas if all these more liberal Black politicians are. It matters who Chuy endorses, but Vallas an easy path to 50% now.

[kwabbit]

https://www.1983labs.com/chicago-runoff

First poll has Vallas 43.5, Johnson 32.5. Vallas in the left, Johnson in the right.

White- 49/25
Black- 33/50
Hispanic- 50/19
Asian- 69/26
Two/Other- 26/38

HS- 49/30
Some College- 45/25
Bach- 37/49
Grad- 48/27

18-29- 45/35
30-44- 29/58
45-64- 48/27
65+- 49/29

Chuy- 31/35
Lighfoot- 27/33
Wilson- 45/20

[kwabbit]

Did anyone watch the debate? Brandon Johnson kept saying “Latinx” but pronouncing it “Latinik”? Is this another rose Twitter buzz phrase I’ve missed?

I didn’t watch, but I heard Vallas attacked Johnson zero times. Not a good strategy, but very consistent  with his image as a policy wonk as opposed to an actual politician.

Of course, Johnson dug into him regardless.

The moderator kept the candidates accountable so Vallas didn’t need to attack Johnson necessarily because the obvious flaws and damaging prior comments of both candidates were brought up. Johnson landed some attacks on Vallas, but I have no idea how effective they would be to the median voter. Do normal people care about Ken Griffin liking both DeSantis and Vallas?

[kwabbit]

Has Johnson brought up Vallas's connection to Philly and his terrible handling? He would be a nightmare for public education.

Johnson would want to bring up Vallas’ tenure in CPS. I don’t think anyone in Chicago cares what he did in Philly when he already had the job in their own city. Besides, his tenure in New Orleans demonstrates a greater desire to privatize schools.

[kwabbit]

Victory Research poll has Vallas leading:

https://twitter.com/maryannahernnbc/status/1634927942546644992

https://twitter.com/austinahlman/status/1634957914044792833

If this pollster is accurate, then it's clear where the momentum is. I'd like to see more statistical points of reference... But with the election in just a few weeks we probably won't get a ton more.

Perhaps, but Johnson had a lot of momentum in the final stage of the first round and maybe that’s being captured. M3 had no change from their runoff hypothetical to their first real runoff poll.

[kwabbit]

Vallas hanging with his base.

https://twitter.com/PaulVallas/status/1634997204535627776?s=20

Once one of the main Democratic bases in America, only Democrats like Vallas, Biden, Schumer and Newsom get these people.

Once Harris, etc. ascends in the party, they're gone.

I'm surprised they still live in Chicago and haven't moved elsewhere in Cook or even suburbia in DuPage.

Mount Greenwood has a lot of police officers and firefighters who are required to reside in the city. As are all municipal employees. For NYC they must reside in the NY metro, but not the city itself.

[kwabbit]

Why is Johnson supporting the head tax a big deal? $4 per month per employee seems negligible. No business would leave the city over that amount since it would be much more costly to move. On the flip side that seems like a negligible amount of revenue to raise.

Is it just that it’s a symbol of being anti-business?

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1638000976454991877

Bobby Rush to endorse Vallas.

Rush might be the most valuable endorsement when it comes to the South Side Black vote and could be the most valuable endorsement overall, although Johnson getting Chuy is huge.

When was the last time the Black establishment was so split on endorsements? Besides 2019, which was two Black candidates.

[kwabbit]

Not sure why Pritzker just doesn't endorse Johnson at this point. Also not sure how any Dem would vote for Vallas at this point, given he's sh*t on basically every major Dem now.

It's not like Johnson is a generic D. He's on the left fringes of the party and was a pretty vocal defund the police supporter (and kind of still is). I don't think Pritzker wants to be associated with either of them, especially since if he runs for President he'll have to field constant questions about crime in Chicago.

Vallas is also an institution in Chicago. He's been prominent for 25 years at this point and surely has a working relationship with the public face of the Chicago billionaire family. I think that's what's buying Vallas endorsements across racial and ideological lines. The big players know him on a personal level but probably don't for Johnson.

[kwabbit]

Not sure why Pritzker just doesn't endorse Johnson at this point. Also not sure how any Dem would vote for Vallas at this point, given he's sh*t on basically every major Dem now.

It's not like Johnson is a generic D. He's on the left fringes of the party and was a pretty vocal defund the police supporter (and kind of still is). I don't think Pritzker wants to be associated with either of them, especially since if he runs for President he'll have to field constant questions about crime in Chicago.

Vallas is also an institution in Chicago. He's been prominent for 25 years at this point and surely has a working relationship with the public face of the Chicago billionaire family. I think that's what's buying Vallas endorsements across racial and ideological lines. The big players know him on a personal level but probably don't for Johnson.

Unless he was busy destroying New Orleans and Philadelphia schools.

He got the lieutenant governor nomination right after he got back from destroying NO and Philly public schools so it didn’t bother the establishment too much.

[kwabbit]

The South and West side numbers seem to be underrating Vallas. It has Vallas winning Wilson voters and getting 25% of Lightfoot voters, both of whom the poll suggest are indeed turning out, but the Vallas numbers in the South and West sides are less than Vallas first round + 1/2 Wilson first round.

[kwabbit]

The Vallas-is-a-Republican posters really need to reckon with the fact that the last two mayors before Lightfoot were Rahm, who pushed CTU to its first strike in a quarter-century, and M. Daley, who took control of CPS and replaced dozens of schools with charters (as part of his general project of stripping the copper out of city government). Vallas's record on education is what it is, but it's Chicago Democrats who have been the architects of privatization and charterization in Chicago schools (and Vallas who was hand-selected by M. Daley to organize much of that!). Haven't seen much to suggest Vallas would be too different from those two.

It sounds like both of them were awful too. Just because they claimed they were Democrats doesn't mean they actually did mainstream-Democrat things. Same with Vallas; what has he actually proposed that is mainstream Democrat at this point? Everything you see about him screams that he's *technically* a Democrat, but a very, very, very conservative one at that - and for a city like Chicago, that sounds terrible.

Rahm Emanuel has plenty of Democratic bona fides and was as mainstream as it gets. Being the mayor of a big city is probably the hardest elected job in politics and when facing a budget crisis every year something needs to be defunded or privatized or taxes need to be raised. It seems like most progressive policy in cities comes from the city council or the DA and I don't think that's a coincidence. As mayor you have to be the bad guy or outsource being the bad guy to people like Vallas as Daley did.

[kwabbit]

That Victory Research poll has Johnson getting only 19% of Whites. Will it really be that lopsided?

BSP had Whites at 51-42 Emerson has 60-32 and Victory has 74-19. They all have similar results in the end driven by opposite minority numbers, with the BSP having Vallas losing Black voters by 27/winning Latinos, and Victory having Jonson winning Black voters by 50.

Emerson has it closest IMO.