Rate NY-11

[kwabbit]

Tilt R, closer to Lean R than tossup

You do realize this was redistricted to a Biden+11 seat, right? Unless the map is overturned and replaced by a fair map, this seat is Lean D (and a lot closer to Likely than Tilt).

I know it's Biden +11, which makes it about D+6 in a neutral environment. I'm predicting a R+9 national environment so I'm even overestimating dem's chances here.

I say it's R+5 at most, you say it's R+9. I'll give you a deal: If the GOP wins the NPV for the House by even 8 points (which is less than the 9 points you think they'll win by) or more, I will not post on this board until the end of next year (so I wouldn't post from the time at which the results of the midterms were confirmed until January 1, 2024). However, if they win it by 5 points or less, you do the same. Do you agree? (All I'm asking here is for you to put your money where your mouth is - and I'll do the same.)

Well the NPV will be somewhere between R+5.1 and R+7.9, so you'll both be able to stay. Congrats.

All right then since no one is reciprocating my offers, I personally promise not to post on this board from the time at which the results have been fully confirmed until 2024 if the GOP wins the House NPV by a margin greater than 6 points (I can see them doing a bit better than 5 points, I admit, but if it's more than 6, I'm more than willing to admit I was completely wrong once again and punish myself for being so confident).

Why are you all even doing this?

You can have different predictions without having to resort to a bet about leaving the forum. This has usually been associated with obnoxious and mean posters like SirWoodbury and NSV and has not been borne out of a cordial disagreement like this. It's not like Pieman or CR is worsening the forum in the way NSV attacking anyone who predicted a Youngkin was.

[kwabbit]

Tilt R, closer to Lean R than tossup

You do realize this was redistricted to a Biden+11 seat, right? Unless the map is overturned and replaced by a fair map, this seat is Lean D (and a lot closer to Likely than Tilt).

I know it's Biden +11, which makes it about D+6 in a neutral environment. I'm predicting a R+9 national environment so I'm even overestimating dem's chances here.

I say it's R+5 at most, you say it's R+9. I'll give you a deal: If the GOP wins the NPV for the House by even 8 points (which is less than the 9 points you think they'll win by) or more, I will not post on this board until the end of next year (so I wouldn't post from the time at which the results of the midterms were confirmed until January 1, 2024). However, if they win it by 5 points or less, you do the same. Do you agree? (All I'm asking here is for you to put your money where your mouth is - and I'll do the same.)

Well the NPV will be somewhere between R+5.1 and R+7.9, so you'll both be able to stay. Congrats.

All right then since no one is reciprocating my offers, I personally promise not to post on this board from the time at which the results have been fully confirmed until 2024 if the GOP wins the House NPV by a margin greater than 6 points (I can see them doing a bit better than 5 points, I admit, but if it's more than 6, I'm more than willing to admit I was completely wrong once again and punish myself for being so confident).

Why are you all even doing this?

You can have different predictions without having to resort to a bet about leaving the forum. This has usually been associated with obnoxious and mean posters like SirWoodbury and NSV and has not been borne out of a cordial disagreement like this. It's not like Pieman or CR is worsening the forum in the way NSV attacking anyone who predicted a Youngkin was.

I agree that if this was about leaving the forum, it'd certainly be extreme. However, I think it makes more sense since both of us (though not really disrespectful, and certainly more polite than NSV was) are pretty confident about our predictions, that we put something on the line, and leaving this particular board for over a year seems wholly appropriate. I know that regardless of this bet, I myself would be mortified if my predictions were once again way off the mark. I'm inviting any other interested party (in this case Pieman) to join me in agreeing to leave this board (not the entire forum, mind you, because that really would be extreme) if they are proven wildly wrong about the midterms.

Note that also unlike NSV, I've not had any major arguments with anybody (arguments, yeah, but they didn't get that heated or anything). I'm not doing this out of animus or to prove a point. I'm rather doing this because I myself want to hold myself to some level of punishment if I am once again proven wrong. My promise is, in fact, not made out of ego or anger or some major argument I had with somebody (because I didn't - I mean, I've had disagreements for sure, but it's not gotten the way it did with Woodbury and NSV). Because if I am, given that I'll have been wrong twice in a row, perhaps it'd be a good opportunity for me to read and listen to others on this board and learn instead of continuing to post wrong predictions that no one will (understandably) give any credence to. On the other hand, I intend to be right on this. I feel like many of us might have read a little too much into VA and are forgetting the fact that there are still months to go to November and that things can very easily turn around.

Ultimately I'm doing this to put my money where my mouth is and so that my 'bold' predictions are backed by something bigger. Otherwise I could go about making whatever bold predictions I wanted that had no basis in fact, but this way, I'll be holding myself accountable if I am proven wrong (in which case I do deserve to stay off this board for a while and learn from my mistakes rather than repeat them).

Maybe for a year you could change your name to CentristDemocrat and put your avatar as D-India. That'd be funnier and would actually mock you for a Dem-friendly prediction.

Honestly, given that you have zero control over the election outcome, it means nothing if you get it wrong. R+5 is as reasonable as R+8 because almost anything is reasonable so far out of the election. There won't be any mistakes to learn from.