GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[kwabbit]

The GA runoffs proved that he has little suburban crossover

That is actually not true. Perdue outran Trump by 6-10 points (maybe even more in some precincts) in much of East Cobb, North Fulton, and Buckhead. Some parts of Fayette, DeKalb, Oconee, and Chatham did too. In other words, there's some crossover among white suburban voters. The problems were that rural Trumpy/Stop the Steal turnout (especially in MTG's district) just tanked and that Perdue did not have much crossover in diverse suburbs like Gwinnett (which got bluer)

Perdue probably did some crossover appeal in the diverse suburbs as well, it's just that the turnout pattern in the runoffs caused a Dem swing that outweighed his crossover appeal. If Black voters increase their turnout by 10% relative to White voters, then it's hard to counter that through persuasion.

[kwabbit]

From "The Jolt", the AJC's politics blog: Herschel Walker moves further right in search of conservative votes

Seems like he's in the same situation as Oz where GOP voters are still skeptical. Still trying to win them over as we head into October is not a great sign.

Walker doesn’t have an issue with the base. He won the primary easily and is authentically conservative. He might be moving right because he doesn’t know how to articulate a moderate nuanced message, given his general communication problems, but he’s in a much different place than Oz.

[kwabbit]

Wait... so they're might have been a second abortion Walker has paid for??

Honestly, Walker has probably slept with hundreds of women out of infidelity and impregnated a dozen of them. He spent most of his life living a very un-Christian lifestyle.

[kwabbit]

I guess we can expect a bunch more GA polls on the way....

Who's planning to release? Or just bc the scandal gives them a reason to...

[kwabbit]

Walker was already a scandal-plagued candidate (as was Warnock, FWIW.)

Personal use of campaign funds and allegations of domestic violence.  Both Warnock and Walker have the "scandal" tag in FiveThirtyEight's model. 

Interestingly enough, the abortion drama with Walker wouldn't be enough to meet 538's threshold on its own (since there's nothing illegal about paying for your girlfriend's abortion.) 

The cited so-called "scandal" involving Warnock is extremely tenuous, and even the disingenuous Politico article just says that there are "questions" re his use of campaign funds to defend him in a lawsuit. It's likely that people wouldn't file frivolous lawsuits against him if he were just a private citizen, so Warnock's argument that it's a legitimate use of campaign funds seems valid. And anyhow, in total the so-called questions surround the use of $1,183. I cannot fathom a less interesting or smaller "scandal."

His ex-wife's allegation of one specific instance of violence also was determined by police to be without merit.

He’s still counted as scandal plagued as 538, even if the allegations are tenuous. They should probably add a scandal severity variable if they’re gonna have that in the model. Or just not have it at all and let the scandal be borne out solely in the polling.

[kwabbit]

Was pleasantly surprised by some of Walker's performance. Obviously there was a still a good deal of idiocy to go around - the solution to rising insulin prices being cheap gasoline, the prop stunt, etc- but I entered with literally zero expectations, and he held Warnock's feet to the fire incredibly effectively on the abortion issue, he declared with no reservations that he would accept any outcome in November, and he didn't completely sh*t the bed. Obviously, accepting the result of an election is not something for which someone should be given much kudos, but it was still pleasing to hear in this day and age.

Walker wasn't good, but he wasn't a disaster. Quoting Walker is going to look a little nonsensical even if he is talking clearly and coherently because of how marked his accent/vernacular is. He did say some incoherent things, as he does, but he clearly rehearsed a lot for this debate. He sounded stronger than basically any other time I've seen him.

[kwabbit]

It's roughly where Gwinnett was in 2004. It took a dozen years and Trump to go Democratic in a presidential election. I don't imagine it'll be that easy for Forsyth though. I'm sure there are some Georgia posters here that know best and have info on migration and sprawl patterns of the Atlanta metro. I'm guessing Cherokee County will be far more stubborn.

Forsyth still doesn’t have much Black migration. It has a booming Asian population, but the Democrats would have get close among Whites to win the county. They’ll get to 40% quickly though.

[kwabbit]

It's roughly where Gwinnett was in 2004. It took a dozen years and Trump to go Democratic in a presidential election. I don't imagine it'll be that easy for Forsyth though. I'm sure there are some Georgia posters here that know best and have info on migration and sprawl patterns of the Atlanta metro. I'm guessing Cherokee County will be far more stubborn.

Forsyth still doesn’t have much Black migration. It has a booming Asian population, but the Democrats would have get close among Whites to win the county. They’ll get to 40% quickly though.

Forsyth is (I believe) the only White-majority county in the state where Blacks are not the largest minority.

The tradition of segregation and exclusion in the county is still powerful at discouraging Black migration. It's no coincidence that it's the nadir of Black migration and the epicenter of Asian migration.

[kwabbit]

The current trends suggest a Walker victory, so don't get cocky and declare victory.
Its literally only two counties but my point is, the race ain't over.

The tiny Black Belt counties are not trending the Dems' way, but any tiny amount of overperformance in Fulton for Warnock (which seems likely) offsets a swing in all of those.

[kwabbit]

Cobb 85% in, Warnock at 80%.

How is this not game over?

Who cares if a couple bumf--k redneck counties with low turnout shifted 1 point right?

"Reverse-tradamus" indeed.

Forumlurker shouldn't be acting like Walker is looking good, but if you're going to make grand predictions and sweeping statements on this thread, you should have enough intuition to know that Warnock would not be at 80% if Cobb is 85% in. It's either an artifact of the different vote methods that makes it say 85% in or a tabulation error that puts Warnock at 80%.

[kwabbit]

Brantley County >95% in

Walker 92%
Warnock 8%

~5,500 votes cast so far.

In January 2021:

Perdue 91%
Ossoff 9%

~6,600 votes cast back then.

Washington County >95% in

Walker 51%
Warnock 49%

~6,800 votes cast so far.

In January 2021:

Perdue 49%
Ossoff 51%

~8,500 votes cast back then.

Pierce County >95% in

Walker 89%
Warnock 11%

~6,700 votes cast so far.

In January 2021:

Perdue 88%
Ossoff 12%

~7,900 votes cast back then.

Totally not selective at all. Fair analysis.

I think it's because they are the only counties in, but I believe Walker gained in most of these from 2021 in November, so I don't know if the 2022 runoff numbers are better for him than November at all.

[kwabbit]

The needle is not great in Georgia. Feels like it always underestimates the GOP in rural areas and then gets excited and always underestimates Democrats in metro Atlanta. There are bonus votes out of Fulton that boost the Democrats continuously in the needle at the end.

[kwabbit]

Wtf is the point of the needle is there was some bunk data corrupting it the entire time. Like can we even trust the needle once it's put back online given that it might just be broken again in a different way?

[kwabbit]

The bleed continues in the suburban counties of the smaller cities. While Warnock did not break 40% in Columbia County, his 37.3% is the highest any Democrat has gotten there since the three incumbent Democrat statewide row officers won re-election in 2006. Similarly in Houston County, he is the first Democrat to get within single digits since 2006.

To say nothing of the much talked about Fayette and Forsyth counties. Fayette undoubtedly flips in 2024, no matter who the GOP nominee is.

And then we move to Spalding!

It'll have to stop soon, right? Like how far from Atlanta are they going to be building these suburban developments?  The Southern suburbs are already not very dense, there's plenty of room.