The dynamics of CA-21 are crazy. It voted for Clinton by 16 points but Valadao won by 13. I know he lost in 2018, but he came back again this year while overperforming Trump by a massive amount. Does the Hispanic surname carry that much weight? Or is always that GOP downballot?
Valadao is actually Portuguese, but I guess his name sounds vaguely Latino and I think there is a pretty sizable Portuguese community in the Central Valley. He also managed to build up a strong personal brand, being a dairy farmer in a district where that's a big industry. Cox is also a prime example of driftwood. He got swept in thanks to a wave, turned out to have a lot of issues, and got booted two years later in a less favorable environment for his party.
Oh yeah the ao combination is usually Portuguese. Interesting, my understanding was that Cox was a strong candidate for having won in 2018 but I guess it's more that it was just less of an overperformance from Valadao.
