Do we know much about Selzers methodology here? I remember hearing a podcast about how she did polling of Iowa causes, but I can't imagine that she does the same thing here?
IIRC, Selzer has a very laissez-faire approach to polling: use very little weighing (only age, sex, and congressional district), make few prior assumptions and let the data tell you what it tells you. She doesn't take past voting history into account. She doesn't make efforts to re-sample missed voters.
The only thing somewhat notable is that she records demographics of non-voters as well as voters in order to weigh the entire sample to the overall population using Census data.
In other words, a high flexible, non assumptive approach to polling that removes a lot of the educated "guesswork" about what the electorate will look like an instead lets the electorate itself tell you what it will look like.
A priori vs a posteriori perhaps?
She must have some ingenious sampling technique bc she reaches a representative sample of the electorate without much weighting. She's definitely doing something to reach these Trump voters no one else does.
