kwabbit
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,021
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« on: October 28, 2020, 06:11:15 PM » |
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While I never see it becoming a Safe D/R state, I would say that given the results of 2018/the polling in 2020, it does seem to have trended R. Part of this is Florida's inelasticity, but it does seem the GOP has put together a good coalition in Florida. Trump's underperformance with Cubans made it close in 2016, but his gains with WWC + renewed support from Cubans puts the GOP in the game even in very strong Dem wave years like 2018/2020. Previously Florida had voted about 3 points to the right of the nation but it seems to have shifted to about 7 points to the right the past two cycles. This might not continue, but Florida does not have that many of College-educated Whites that have been fleeing the GOP over the past decade, nor does it have a booming, hip metro to attract tons of educated Whites and Asians like Atlanta to drag it left.
When Cuban support for the GOP weakened cycle after cycle, it seemed like that would provide a path for the Dems to turn Florida blue, but the fact that the Cubans snapped back so strongly for the GOP quashed that hope.
If any major state was compatible with GOP gains with working-class whites and Hispanics, it's Florida.
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