DC is admitted some time in early 2022, giving Dems a solid majority of 52-50 before the midterms. Biden maintains high popularity throughout his first term as state and some federal GOPers begin to completely double down on conspiracy theories and QAnon, leading to a huge revolt in the suburbs and a breaking of the tradition of midterm backlash. I expect the PV to be something like D+4 or so, allowing Fetterman and Barnes to flip the open seats. In Wisconsin, the GOP nominee looks like the clear winner but the race ends up being closer than FL 2018, and is heavily disputed in court. Fetterman wins by higher than expected by maintaining SEPA margins while superboosting rural Dem turnout in Western PA. Ohio is unexpectedly close, within 3 points, as Tim Ryan runs an excellent campaign against Jim Jordan. In NC, the race is about a 2 point margin as the GOP candidate, Mark Walker, successfully attacks Jeff Jackson with a sex scandal blown out of proportion. In GA, Collins runs for Governor and primaries Kemp while Marjorie Taylor Greene runs against Warnock for Senate. Both win by unexpectedly large margins as well. The closest senate races were NH, NV, and WI, all won by Dems within 0.5%.
This is going to age horribly but idc lemme be optimistic
