What if Florida and Texas switch places in the Republican coalition?

[Red Wall]

Basically Florida becomes a reliable Republican state (as Republican as Virginia is democrat) between an influx of both conservative retirees and immigrants while Texas becomes a lean R state that can go dem under the right circumstances.

Obviously that means a net 9 (probably 10 in 2024) EV loss but it can be offset by brining another midwestern state to the R camp like Iowa, Ohio and Missouri, with Wisconsin being the most likely candidate.

Will that happen?

[Red Wall]

Ehhh, I think if Texas actually flips, it's gone like Virginia, not a protracted fight like Arizona or Nevada.  Houston having the votes to squash any Dem campaign seen as too anti-oil if it wanted to does make the situation a bit more complicated, but at the end of the day, either I-35 outvotes rural Texas or it doesn't.

Also, I'm way more open to the idea of 7-10% Republican wins becoming normal in Florida than most people here, but a 2:1 Republican blowout like Texas in 2004?!

Hence why I went with the Virginis comparison. I know Republican margins in Florida akin to Bush's in Texas are impossible, even if the candidate is from Florida.