Fear and Law & Order - How does it play?

[Admiral Stockdale]

It looks like the GOP is going (at least in part) down the fear, crime, police, safety, etc. road.  How does this play with voters that polling shows are coming back to the Dems - namely, suburban women, upper middle class college educated whites, etc.?  Does it vary by region?

[Admiral Stockdale]

The suburbs aren’t what they were 50, or even 15, years ago. Suburbs are getting more diverse, more educated, and more liberal overall. Polling consistently shows college-educated whites, particularly women, moving away from the GOP. I don’t think the law and order dog whistles are going to work. Even if some of these suburban voters want “something done” about the disorder, they certainly don’t think Trump is the man to keep the peace.

I think this is true on the west coast, mid atlantic, new england, and northeast... but not elsewhere - at least not yet. 

 

[Admiral Stockdale]

The suburbs aren’t what they were 50, or even 15, years ago. Suburbs are getting more diverse, more educated, and more liberal overall. Polling consistently shows college-educated whites, particularly women, moving away from the GOP. I don’t think the law and order dog whistles are going to work. Even if some of these suburban voters want “something done” about the disorder, they certainly don’t think Trump is the man to keep the peace.

I think this is true on the west coast, mid atlantic, new england, and northeast... but not elsewhere - at least not yet. 

 

Crosstabs on that poll show it to be 72% from two states (PA and MI).  Not sure I buy it showing NC, AZ or WI.  

Interesting none the less.  Basically shows it going back to Obama's 2nd term vote.  

[Admiral Stockdale]

Instead, it is aimed at voters who subconsciously or not equate crime with Black and Latino people. They are afraid of rising crime and disorder that doesn't exist, and afraid of demographic and cultural change. They also believe that racial injustice is exaggerated, and that Democrats provoke riots by calling out injustices.

This is key point.  And something going on in a small Wisconsin city scares people.  The GOP couldn't have asked for a "better situation" during their convention.  I am in no way minimizing the gentleman who was shot (and any others injured subsequently), but the cold, strategic view of this is great for the Republicans.  The protests and BLM movement was slowly going away from the public eye - and while white support was waning to some extent - the law and order, Biden will defund the police messaging is now front and center.  The fluid undecideds in the rust belt can easily be swayed by the news reports and the RNC messaging.  The hurricanes may be a saving grace for the Dems if they drown out the Wisconsin messaging.  Again... I know this is a terrible thing to say, but I am just trying to assess the situation.   

[Admiral Stockdale]

Instead, it is aimed at voters who subconsciously or not equate crime with Black and Latino people. They are afraid of rising crime and disorder that doesn't exist, and afraid of demographic and cultural change. They also believe that racial injustice is exaggerated, and that Democrats provoke riots by calling out injustices.

This is key point.  And something going on in a small Wisconsin city scares people.  The GOP couldn't have asked for a "better situation" during their convention.  I am in no way minimizing the gentleman who was shot (and any others injured subsequently), but the cold, strategic view of this is great for the Republicans.  The protests and BLM movement was slowly going away from the public eye - and while white support was waning to some extent - the law and order, Biden will defund the police messaging is now front and center.  The fluid undecideds in the rust belt can easily be swayed by the news reports and the RNC messaging.  The hurricanes may be a saving grace for the Dems if they drown out the Wisconsin messaging.  Again... I know this is a terrible thing to say, but I am just trying to assess the situation.  

Democrats are lucky that there's a relatively low number of undecideds.

And I gotta think that anyone who would be persuaded by that messaging has already moved to Trump, or was with him from the beginning.

Agreed completely. Biden’s 8-9 pt lead is cuz there were soft white conservatives who got pissed at his awful response to pandemic and BLM in June. Now that infection spikes and massive marches aren’t in the headlines right now, they’ve reverted back to being skeptical of BLM due to riots and give more benefit of the doubt to Trump on virus. Without these voters, Biden is up 6-7 pts. That’s where I think things will end up: still big lead for Biden, and translates to 300+ EVs.

I think there are some "soft" 2016 Trump -> 2020 Biden voters who can be persuaded to move back, but in general I agree that the low number of undecideds (from an historical perspective) benefits Biden (the leader).