IA-Selzer: Trump +7

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Oh god

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I just don't understand, every other Iowa poll has Biden at 46-47 or higher.

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I said it before but I would have a better time believing this poll if most other polls had Biden in the lower 40s like they did for Hillary in 2016. But every other quality Iowa poll had Biden at 47+ in Iowa. Oh well, we’ll see in a few days.

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3 Reasons why this poll is not predictive of anything ala 2016

1. In 2016, the highest Selzer had Clinton was at 39%. In their last poll, Selzer had Biden at 47%. Clearly something is off in this poll to have such a dramatic shift, so the fact that they had him at 47% in their last poll is telling.

2. When their final Iowa poll dropped in 2016, things were tightening in a lot of polls, from the nat. ones to the state polls. This isn't happening this year.

3. Nearly every Iowa poll had Hillary in the low 40s and high 30s in 2016. This year, all of the higher quality polls in Iowa have had Biden at between 46-50, and in some he's leading and at 50%. Hillary wishes she could have had #s like that.

All respect to Ann Selzer, but this poll ain't it.

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