Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two

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https://twitter.com/ArchRose90/status/1583077482630385664?s=20&t=4P_DXZXK5D8...

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Gove out

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Is the election procedure the same as last time? I noticed the bit about "rules changes," and thus wondered about that.

MPs only.

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Let's Go Brandon

https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1583096549663338496?s=20&t=4Y5G6s-1...

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Spreadsheet

https://t.co/jMoPBLbeER

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https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1583131954613846016

He hasn't made any public statement (even in tweet form) of any kind since the day of the Queen's death apparently. Probably wise for his leadership ambitions. 

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At least 100 nominations needed, with nominations closing at 2PM on Monday.

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https://twitter.com/elenicourea/status/1583134715095420929

I wonder what the gap will be between the election of the leader and the changeover of PMs. Can't imagine that they will want to hang around, even until the next day.

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So who do we think this online vote thing will favor?

Probably hackers.

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Given that law and order and immigration matters are most pressing to a lot of the right, maybe Sunak and/or Mourdant will reach out with the promise of an ERGer in the Home Office (probably Braverman again). This might make it a coronation if only one of Sunak and Mourdant stand.

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https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1583140060697763840?s=20&t=h9A5vwp0vF2twOW...

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Sunak isn't likely to reach ~260 nominations (which would keep anyone else from reaching the ballot) but I think it's quite possible that he reaches 179, which would mean a majority and would thus run the risk of another leader without the support of the majority of the parliamentary party if it goes any further. At that point he would be well advised to make offers to other factions, or maybe he's done that already.

By all indications he's been running the most active unofficial campaign for the past few weeks.

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Spreadsheet

https://t.co/jMoPBLbeER

Boris on 33
Sunak on 26
Mordaunt on 9

A few of Boris's backers are listed anonymously ('whip' 'party board' etc). Not looking good for Mourdant - early momentum is key.

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Lmao @ the spreadsheet posted earlier listing Boris endorsements:


28 Kelly Tolhurst
29 Sheryll Murray
30 Richard Drax
31 A Whip
32 Philip Hollobone
33 Party board
34 A Whip
35 A Whip
36 A Whip
37 CCHQ Chair

They are probably trying to game it for him a bit, yes. Presumably CCHQ Chair is different from Party Chair (which would be Jake Berry).

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https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1583171589985562626?s=20&t=znFHRnAKzsnj...

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Christopher Hope (who is known to be quite partial to Johnson) saying that he will only stand if he can be assured of reaching the 100.

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First cabinet endorsement....





....JRM for Boris. A real surprise.

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If these numbers are representative of the entire parliamentary party then Sunak has the support of around 150 MPs, not far off a majority. And if they are not representative then it would likely be in his favour, given that Johnson's supporters are making a non-subtle effort to grab the early momentum. Mordaunt continues to be very quiet - I think it's odds against that she even stands.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1583349708633710592?s=20&t=Un20MbKjUtRa...

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Sunak is now ahead even on the Guido spreadsheet.

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Wallace is not standing and is leaning towards supporting Johnson. Big gravitas boost for Boris's campaign, even though Wallace has long been an ally of his.

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Simon Clarke, who holds the absurdly named cabinet position of Levelling Up Secretary, is also backing Johnson.

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A somewhat more impressive backer for Johnson - Ben Houchen, Mayor of Tees Valley. Backed Sunak in the previous contest. Doesn't have a vote himself at present.

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A somewhat more impressive backer for Johnson - Ben Houchen, Mayor of Tees Valley. Backed Sunak in the previous contest. Doesn't have a vote himself at present.

Well, I wouldn't call blocking anyone who disagrees with him, nor his response to the sea life die-off, particularly impressive. There's his rewarding of donors but that's more astonishing.

I wouldn't call the average Sunday League Premier team particularly impressive, but they maybe are in comparison to the average Sunday League Division Three team.

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Might be worth noting that Shapps is another long term ally of Johnson.

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Chris Heaton-Harris (Northern Ireland Secretary) for Johnson.