UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

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https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1485914218163576837?s=20

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It’s being suggested that it’s an incident that we don’t know about yet…

I've seen it suggested that there are five incidents that are particularly damning. Last night's isn't one of them, but one of them (the only one yet leaked) is the pre-DoE funeral party, which apparently isn't the worst one of the five.

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Interesting that Sunak has been dragged into these latest "revelations".

He's also resisting a U-turn on National Insurance if I read right.

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https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1486015473359724546?s=20

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https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1486029913387933697?s=20

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https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1486111189541265408?s=20

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This is... not correct.

He, above all, knows that. Which makes it more funny.

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https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1486120247459561472?s=20

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It also seems like a very poor time to make thinly-veiled threats to the Red Wall MPs, attempting to use their constituencies and small majorities against them.

Given the precedent of Christian Wakeford and the whipping scandal - does JRM not realise the optics and outcomes of this are potentially awful?

Whatever poise he tries to speak with, these comments really read like the last-minute scrambling of a politician who knows he might be out of a job soon. Whoever replaces Johnson, whether that be next week or next year, I doubt they’ll be offering a ministry to JRM.

Let's do a little exercise, on the basis of this. The future prospects of each cabinet member under the next Prime Minister, assuming that scenario isn't too far away.

Raab - Uninspiring, might be offered something but might choose to call it quits.
Truss - Will likely be there regardless of whether she is the actual leader. If she isn't then she could move to the Treasury.
Sunak - Could move to the Foreign Office if he isn't the leader. Will stay in cabinet unless there's a particularly nasty leadership election in which he doesn't win.
Patel - Gone or demoted.
Wallace - Relatively competent. If gone then it will be on his own accord, although his Boris loyalism could come into play.
Gove - Will be in the cabinet until the end of this government, whenever that may be. Is due one of the four Great Offices.
Javid - Difficult to call. I would guess a return to the Home Office.
Barclay - Generic cutout. Who cares, but may stay.
Kwarteng - One of the drossier members. Could stay in a lesser role.
Sharma - Will probably stay.
Trevelyan - Not much profile. Not sure really.
Coffey - Memeish. Drossy. Will probably go to the backbench.
Zahawi - Possibly a Great Office contender.
Eustice - Useless. Probably out.
Shapps - Hilariously opportunistic and careerist, even by the standards of this government. Could continue to be a clogging member.
Lewis - One of those eternal mid-ranking cabinet members, so probably remains.
Jack - Scottish Secretary, not many alternatives.
Hart - Welsh Secretary, not many alternatives.
Evans - Who cares.
Dorries - Certain to be out. The Diane Abbott of this government.
Dowden - Probably stays in some role or another.

And yes, JRM goes. Not officially a member of the cabinet.

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Using Daily Mail headlines to justify the leader's position.

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1486294541942591488?s=20

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsForUK/status/1486353871060586499?s=20

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This person is a cabinet minister.

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1486594523560136706?s=20

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Guardian article on the leadership challenge.

This bit amuses me.

The shadow whipping operation is meeting up to three times a day – twice in-person and once virtually. It is organising in a nearly 100-strong WhatsApp “support group”. However there are fears some “spies” have infiltrated, and are briefing those who would back the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, in a leadership contest.

Who would have seen that coming?

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The iconic television programme "The Bill" actually portrayed the Met in too flattering a light.

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It’s quite impressive that Boris is going to survive this- most likely without even a confidence vote happening.

Or as Matthew Parris suggests in his somewhat scathing Times piece today, it says the most about the collective cowardice within the parliamentary Tory party.

May showed how difficult it is to remove a sitting PM who refuses to go. And all of the reports about the whips' skulduggery has made it look like Boris has gone scorched earth.

May showed how useless the Tory Party is in general.

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Entertaining knockabout in the Commons on the Gray Report.

Starmer calls on Tories to overthrow BJ.

BJ responds by trying to tie Starmer to Jimmy Saville.

Theresa May then gets up and gives one to BJ.

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The general narrative since last week has been that BJ has been given more time after the Met's intervention. Clearly that's gone to his head and contributed to his performance today.

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Truss has Covid, as does Zahawi.

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There isn't much of an ideological or factional pattern to Johnson's group of critics. Some are grandee wets like May and others are hardcore ERGers like Bridgen. Essentially, BJ is the type who pisses all sorts of people off.

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Dan Hodges' Twitter feed is suggesting that the coup is on or imminent. Words of caution would be that it's Dan Hodges.

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https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1488976353680576514?s=20&t=d6wzY76tbm5M...

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https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1489247755834781699?s=20&t=3xAoiM...

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Munira Mirza has quit over this issue!

This has more potential to be the Geoffrey Howe moment than anything else over the past month or two. Her statement is quite brutal.

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Sunak essentially just rebuffed Johnson. Also, Mirza's other half is close to Sunak.