March 19th Official Primary Thread (AZ, FL, IL, KS, OH)

[AncestralDemocrat.]

So are all the people who constantly go "this is a bad number for Biden" going to weigh in on Trump in Florida?

Its a meh number but roughly 420k votes were cast before Haley's exit.. and dems cancelled their primary.  

There's largely criticism of Biden's numbers, rightfully or wrongfully, because he's a incumbent.  

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Haley ahead in Gadsden county

I think thats a error given Vivek and Christie are in second and third.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Thoughts on the Moreno/Dolan race?

Dolan's done.

Pretty sure this is all EV.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1770237892419551727?t=DrOxOqY3oRvyA0WneLegCQ&...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Seems Trump's margin in Miami Dade was several points better than statewide. 

80-14 statewide. 

87-11 Miami Dade.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'd have expected him to do better than 76% in arizona.. 20% sizeable Haley vote.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'd have expected him to do better than 76% in arizona.. 20% sizeable Haley vote.

Seems they revised how much was left to count back down to 78%.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I'd have expected him to do better than 76% in arizona.. 20% sizeable Haley vote.

Seems they revised how much was left to count back down to 78%.

Did both of their vote counts (Trump and Biden) also go way down?

Yes.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

NYT keeps removing counties and lowering the percentage counted lol.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Zero election day vote has been counted yet so this should take a while.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Zero election day vote has been counted yet so this should take a while.

Small batch.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1770302398713766377?t=3hLKDTKNi_ywDDsn...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Illinois: Biden 91.3%, Trump 80.7%
Ohio: Biden 87.1%, Trump 79.2%
Florida: Trump 81.2%
Arizona: Biden 89.5%, Trump 77.5%
Kansas: Biden 83.8%, Trump 75.5%

Who is the one failing to coalesce the base at this point?

Not only is Trump consistently still losing ~20% of the primary, he's still doing worse than he did in 2020 - when he was the incumbent. He got less votes in FL this year (and there were less votes overall in the contest, too). Feels like this is a continued underrepresented situation that the press doesn't want to talk about - they continue to parrot polls that say 97% of Trump 2020 voters are on board or that the entire Republican base is on board, when it's clear - even in *closed primaries* that Trump is getting a substantial protest vote - and a bigger one than Biden.

Biden got ripped for getting 81% in Michigan and 100,000 people voting against him. That happened to Trump in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona and Florida last night - with candidates that have dropped out! And you don't hear a peep about it!

This doesn't even make sense.. of course, he'll do worse in a open primary than when he was a incumbent (when he faced Joe Walsh and Bill Weld lmao).

Many of the states listed above Haley was still a declared candidate for much of the mail in vote period.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Illinois: Biden 91.3%, Trump 80.7%
Ohio: Biden 87.1%, Trump 79.2%
Florida: Trump 81.2%
Arizona: Biden 89.5%, Trump 77.5%
Kansas: Biden 83.8%, Trump 75.5%

Who is the one failing to coalesce the base at this point?

Not only is Trump consistently still losing ~20% of the primary, he's still doing worse than he did in 2020 - when he was the incumbent. He got less votes in FL this year (and there were less votes overall in the contest, too). Feels like this is a continued underrepresented situation that the press doesn't want to talk about - they continue to parrot polls that say 97% of Trump 2020 voters are on board or that the entire Republican base is on board, when it's clear - even in *closed primaries* that Trump is getting a substantial protest vote - and a bigger one than Biden.

Biden got ripped for getting 81% in Michigan and 100,000 people voting against him. That happened to Trump in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona and Florida last night - with candidates that have dropped out! And you don't hear a peep about it!

This doesn't even make sense.. of course, he'll do worse in a open primary than when he was a incumbent.

Many of the states listed above Haley was still a declared candidate for much of the mail in vote period.

Even when Haley was still a candidate, she wasn't a viable one. It was still a Trump protest vote in all intents and purposes.

If Trump is so strong as predicted, he should've been able to top his vote # from 2020. It was an uncompetitive primary in which there was no reason for people to come out. This was a "contested" primary and Trump couldn't even top his numbers from that year, which should've been very easily achievable given that this is more of a real primary than that was. It's not just that though - there was less total Republican votes this year than 2020 - when Trump ran essentially unopposed. That doesn't scream "Trump voters are coming out of the woodwork to vote for him"!

Haley was very well funded and had a professional campaign apparatus.. same can not be said for Joe Walsh and Bill Weld.

Its just analytically dishonest to repeatedly lord over Bidens performance as a incumbent president in comparison to his opposition in a open primary.. its the least you expect of him to repeatedly hit 85% against what only be described as token opposition.  

FYI my personal view is that Biden has had a acceptable performance during the primary season and the panic over results such as Michigan was over exaggerated. 

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Illinois: Biden 91.3%, Trump 80.7%
Ohio: Biden 87.1%, Trump 79.2%
Florida: Trump 81.2%
Arizona: Biden 89.5%, Trump 77.5%
Kansas: Biden 83.8%, Trump 75.5%

Who is the one failing to coalesce the base at this point?

Not only is Trump consistently still losing ~20% of the primary, he's still doing worse than he did in 2020 - when he was the incumbent. He got less votes in FL this year (and there were less votes overall in the contest, too). Feels like this is a continued underrepresented situation that the press doesn't want to talk about - they continue to parrot polls that say 97% of Trump 2020 voters are on board or that the entire Republican base is on board, when it's clear - even in *closed primaries* that Trump is getting a substantial protest vote - and a bigger one than Biden.

Biden got ripped for getting 81% in Michigan and 100,000 people voting against him. That happened to Trump in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona and Florida last night - with candidates that have dropped out! And you don't hear a peep about it!

This doesn't even make sense.. of course, he'll do worse in a open primary than when he was a incumbent.

Many of the states listed above Haley was still a declared candidate for much of the mail in vote period.

Even when Haley was still a candidate, she wasn't a viable one. It was still a Trump protest vote in all intents and purposes.

If Trump is so strong as predicted, he should've been able to top his vote # from 2020. It was an uncompetitive primary in which there was no reason for people to come out. This was a "contested" primary and Trump couldn't even top his numbers from that year, which should've been very easily achievable given that this is more of a real primary than that was. It's not just that though - there was less total Republican votes this year than 2020 - when Trump ran essentially unopposed. That doesn't scream "Trump voters are coming out of the woodwork to vote for him"!

Haley was very well funded and had a professional campaign apparatus.. same can not be said for Joe Walsh and Bill Weld.

Its just analytically dishonest to repeatedly lord over Bidens performance as a incumbent president in comparison to his opposition in a open primary.. its the least you expect of him to repeatedly hit 85% against what only be described as token opposition.  

FYI my personal view is that Biden has had a acceptable performance during the primary season and the panic over results such as Michigan was over exaggerated.  

A) by the time Florida started voting (and IL, OH, KS, etc. did), Haley was close to or at least dropping out. Same with Arizona, where even with election day votes, Trump still got <80% of the vote.

The point here is that you can't have it both ways. You can't go on and on about how Trump's supporters have somehow increased from 2020 when the primaries turnout and his own performance have been lower compared to 2020 when he was an incumbent and should've been low turnout anyway. My point isn't against you personally, but the narrative(TM) that Trump somehow has not only kept all of his 2020 voters, but *added* them too this time around, when basically this entire primary has shown he still has serious problems within the Republican base and has major issues with suburban voters and Independents especially.

It's exactly why I don't take polls showing him doing *better* among Independents and Suburban voters among others seriously.

I don't believe that correlating primary performance (especially as a non incumbent) and general performance is a exact science.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Great sign for November that Arizona has still only counted 80% of the vote lol.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Great sign for November that Arizona has still only counted 80% of the vote lol.

There’s probably about 50-75k vote left (https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/BPS/59/0). So 80% isn’t exactly accurate when a million ballots have already been tabulated. More like 5-10% of total vote is likely outstanding.

The problem remains the idiots who drop off their early ballots at the polls. It’s especially egregious when this ballot had one race on it. I kinda get it when faced with 50+ different races and ballot questions and judges.

The GE will be a sh*tshow regardless.

Appreciate that clarification.. seems the NYT estimate of whats left is incorrect.