2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Of note that CNN and Marist are both closer among RV - CNN is R+1 and Marist is tied.

Politico/Morning Consult at D+5 again this week, 47-42

Morning Consult is an outlier at this point, although you probably believe that this is the actual state of the race.

It would be nice if you stopped telling other people what they believe.

Stating a fact that it is a outlier isn't telling other people what to believe.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

We have a general consensus among RV, with outliers in two directions:

Polticio/MC: D+5

NewsNation: R+1
CNN: R+1
YouGov: tied
Marist: tied

Quinnipiac: R+4

A lot of the other variation lies within LV models

The Split Ticket guys have a "nonpartisan" poll aggregator that has it around R+0.4 I think right now. I've said for a while now I think the overall average is close to a tie, and that seems to be about right right now.

Prepare for a +5 R year given your track record.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1588154801753395203?t=O18vMnoAG3YgSfba8E9Xd...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1588185745671405569

D +14 sample..

Interesting.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1588916015869878272?t=J9Wz9Bfa732UFxcf6...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

House is Safe R and has been for a while.

That's not hackish to suggest.. it's just the realistic conclusion given how dems have consistently had to play defense in districts that if the house was in play, would be easy holds.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

I see the delusion that the Dems can retain the house is already materializing..

Of course they can. If you think there is literally a 0% chance of it happening, then you are as delusional and hackish as the ones who think it probably will.

House is Safe R and has been for a while.

That's not hackish to suggest.. it's just the realistic conclusion given how dems have consistently had to play defense in districts that if the house was in play, would be easy holds.

Okay, but by this logic, it would have also been hackish to suggest that the house was going to be anything other than a massive dem blowout in 2020, as the republicans were absolutely “playing defense” in districts they ended up winning by high single and double digits.  Sometimes professional politicos polls and models are just plain wrong.  By all accounts, the Mitt Romney campaign also truly thought they were going to win on election day.

I admire the outright optimism held by some that there is suddenly going to be a massive non response bias, in benefit of dems, due to a few special elections..

Otherwise, the misses have been almost exclusively in one direction.

I'll suggest the house is safe R.. that's my opinion, and it's not hackish to express it.. we'll see on Tuesday.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Wasserman's thoughts on how the Tossup races break:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1589426102141079554?cxt=HHwWhMDS7cyn444sAA...
I wouldn't be surprised if he does one final ratings update tomorrow morning.

Very reasonable.. maybe slightly bullish on dems in Ohio.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/HWLavelleMaps/status/1589434701097603072?t=JPQZnAZHq57SDFU68...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Hilarious how Morning Consult has had D +5 for months..

Will age like milk.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1589677455174176770?t=3h0ICIeg-22wxSLZ...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Does Data for Progress have any significant R house effect? Because a poll of this kind is concerning...GCB polls have been a big bright spot for Ds this cycle...

Hard to say. They’ve definitely been pretty right-leaning this cycle, and they whiffed the NY-19 special pretty hard (Molinaro +8, compared to the actual result of Ryan +3). But that could be a consistent house effect, or it could just be them being a bad pollster!

That's true. I guess we'll see in a day how good their polls were...and we'll see in another cycle or two if they have any consistent house effect...maybe they have more bullish methodology which produces better results.
Are any other GCB polls showing an R advantage? And if so, how many?

Both RCP and 538 show a R advantage in the Generic ballot.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1589755760648794112?t=mdy1XcQfTCpXh61yieD...

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1589768609722949632?t=P8w5PAZM6w-OM7MI9Og...