I have a very crude metric: the Current Fed rate minus the last know YoY CPI, This metric has a lot of problems are Fed rate is more forward-looking, and the CPI is backward-looking. Still, I like it as a simple measurement of how "strong" the Fed rate is relative to the inflation problem it needs to fix.
This metric massively bottomed out at -4.4% in April 2022 before during upward. This latest CPI YoY number puts this metric at its highest level since right before the 2008 financial crisis. The current level is much higher than most of the post-2008 period but is pretty normal with the 1985-2001 period. So assuming inflation can fall below 3% in 2024 on a consistent level I would expect the Fed rate increase to stop and stay put. That would be a great outcome and finally ends this financial repression funny money era of 2008-2022.
Normalizing rates, yes. However the 'funny money era' as you refer to it won't be over until the Federal Reserve is at least part way through quantitative tightening.
