2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Benjamin Frank]

B.Q
1.Argentuil-La Petite Nation, 3.0%
2.Brome-Missisquoi, 0.4
3.Chateaguay-La Colle, 0.0
4.Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, 7.6 (only riding B.Q narrowly lost to Conservatives)
5.Compton-Stanstead, 6.1
6.Gaspesie-Les Iles de la Madeleine, 7.1
7.Hochelaga, 6.5
8.Longeuil-Charles Le Moyne, 5.1
9.Quebec, 6.4
10.Sherbrooke, 8.5

Green
1.Nanaimo-Ladysmith, 3.1

I'll add the Conservatives later

[Benjamin Frank]

I guess people are thinking of rural NL as being traditionally safe Liberal, as it was one of the few strong Liberal regions in 2011. One has to remember the visceral hatred that Newfoundlands had of Stephen Harper (to the point that their Tory Premier was running an "anybody but Conservative campaign"). Take Harper off the (metaphorical) ballot, and the province gets interesting again.

"Their Tory Premier"  Danny Williams!

[Benjamin Frank]

I look at both gap between parties, past results, provincial results (for ideological make up and possibilities even though not always same) and overall trends to.  If a riding used to vote a certain way but you see a steady trend away, its probably not going back.  If a riding has never voted for a certain point, but you see it trending a certain way, good chance it flips at some point.  Best way to judge trends is look at how far off percentage was with national results.  If a riding was L+9 one election, L+6 next, and then L+2, then you can say its trending away from the Liberals for example. 

Quebec is without question the most elastic, but usually its pretty steady, but when they do swing, they tend to swing hard.  Also there is reversion to mean too.  In 2019, swing in Atlantic Canada was much bigger than most provinces as Liberals were at ridiculously high levels and Tories ridiculously low so you were bound to get some reversion to mean thus larger swing.  Other elastic ones I find are Downtown Toronto as they seem to be mostly promiscuous progressives and will never vote Tory, but can swing quite heavily between NDP or Liberals.  Most there unlike 416 suburbs and 905 (where many are Blue Liberals thus would never go NDP, but some might go Tory) lean left here and will swing heavily behind whichever party most likely to stop the Tories. 

Another is just straight up demographics and what parties do well there.  Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, and Northern Ontario saw Tories a lot closer than normal in ridings they normally aren't even competitive in.  But based on demographics in those ridings, this could more a case of starting to align with how other similar ones already vote.  If Calgary one election swung heavily Liberal, you could say same things as based on demographics of Calgary, it should be going Liberal not Tory.  It likely only goes Conservative due to feeling Liberals are hostile towards province so if you had a Liberal leader who was Alberta friendly, you could see a big swing that way. 

In terms of Northern Ontario, to be sure this is based on stereotypes and myths and I don't know how true either are, but...

In the southern rural ridings,  there is supposedly a myth of 'rugged individualism' that tends to have people there voting for right wing political parties, whereas in northern rural ridings there is a myth of 'communitarianism' that has people voting for left wing political parties.  To be sure, that myth doesn't hold in north eastern British Columbia or in Alberta, but it may be a factor elsewhere.

[Benjamin Frank]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

[Benjamin Frank]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

I actually know Jeremy Akerman IRL. He's a Trumpist now.

Peter Fenwick in Newfoundland and Labrador also went from being the NDP provincial leader and hardline union activist to running for the Canadian Alliance in 2000.

[Benjamin Frank]

Sure, but they were struggling to make an impact even in the Layton years, when the NS NDP was stronger across the board than it is now.

Probably because in this case, the Alexa years were more pertinent than the Layton years.  And even provincially, the NDP struggled in Cape Breton through this period--in part because the Libs and PCs were more prone to having high-profile regional leadership figures (Russell MacKinnon, Rodney MacDonald, Cec Clarke, etc), while the NDP tended to have more of a "metropolitan Halifax" profile.  (And in '11, I suspect the federal party was already hampered by Dexter government backlash.)

The Alexa McDonough years during her time as leader of the provincial NDP were marred by divisions with Cape Breton. Her predecessor as leader, Jeremy Ackerman, got in a big fight with Cape Breton NDP MLA Paul McEwen as part of a rift between Cape Breton New Democrats, and New Democrats in the rest of the province. 

I don't believe the NDP won a seat in Cape Breton during her time as provincial leader, and McEwen quit the NDP to form the Cape Breton Labour Party before joining the provincial Liberals.

I actually know Jeremy Akerman IRL. He's a Trumpist now.

Peter Fenwick in Newfoundland and Labrador also went from being the NDP provincial leader and hardline union activist to running for the Canadian Alliance in 2000.

Slightly less of a shift perhaps as it's Newfoundland, but Ryan Cleary, having lost for the federal NDP in St. John's South subsequently ran for the PCs in Windsor Lake in the almost immediate provincial election afterwards. This was not well-received by anyone.

Yes, that's well known. He was always something of a flake.

[Benjamin Frank]

I see that it is still verboten to even mention the name of the final leader of the CCF!

Crossed my mind as well, but there are lots of examples of New Democrats switching to the Liberals. More interesting to track the more right wing drifters/

Another NDP to Tory switcher is Angela Vautour who was elected in the 1997 Alexa wave, but defected. Kind of amazing to think that the NDP ever won Beausejour of all places.

Not sure how much of this you're already familiar with.

In British Columbia, Barrett era cabinet minister Graham Lea, who ran for the NDP leadership in 1984, shortly after expressed disappointment with Bob Skelly's leadership and first formed his own party, The United Party, before that party merged with the provincial Progressive Conservatives. In the end, Lea did not run in the 1986 election.

In a similar vein but not an elected politician, John Twigg, who was Premier Barrett's press secretary is now a provincial Conservative.

I'm not sure if I can find it, but there was a clever column in either the Vancouver Sun or Province printed on April Fool's day before the 1996 provincial election with fake quotes of Dave Barrett explaining why he was quitting the New Democrats and joining, I think, the provincial Reform Party. It was the familiar thing about 'I was also for the little guy in economics.  This left wing party is now elitists only concerned with social issues and the environment, so I'm joining the populist party.'  It apparently fooled a considerable number of people.  I believe that article was written by a guy whose first name is Shane.  I should see if I can find it sometime.

In Saskatchewan, the provincial health minister appointed after the 1960 election, crossed the floor to the Saskatchewan Liberals explaining that he felt pressured to get Medicare running in time to make Tommy Douglas look good as the first leader of the federal N.D.P and that he was unhappy in the government's treatment of the doctors who he felt were being forced to strike. I can't remember his name.  

In Manitoba, a number of historians have argued that the MLAs of the provincial NDP that won in 1969 were a collection of people with very differing political opinions whose biggest connection was a grievance with the WASP dominated provincial Liberal and Progressive Conservative parties.  One historian said that he could just imagine what caucus discussions between the hardline socialist Cy Gonick and the ardent social conservative Joe Borowski must have been like.

A number of New Democrats who were elected in 1969 (or earlier) later left the party (as, of course, did Borowski.)  

Sidney Green, who was a senior cabinet minister in the Schreyer government, was a combination of a socialist on economic issues and a conservative on social issues who also generally opposed welfare spending and was also somewhat anti union.  He ended up quitting the NDP caucus in 1979 and formed his own party called the Progressive Party.  

Russell Doern was also first elected in 1966.  He became increasingly social conservative and quit the NDP in 1984 over the issue of French Language rights in the province, which was a major issue at the time.  He ran for mayor of Winnipeg in 1986 finishing second and was apparently so despondent as an independent who either rejected all the parties or was rejected by all the parties that he sadly committed suicide in 1987.

As far as I know finally there was James Walding who was first elected in a byelection in 1971.  He was also somewhat socially conservative and was also unhappy that Premier Pawley did not appoint him to the cabinet in 1981.  Pawley appointed him Speaker to try to placate him. After siding with Progressive Conservative obstruction tactics as Speaker, the NDP tried to defeat him for re-nomination in 1986 and he was not reappointed as Speaker after the election.  In 1988, while the reelected NDP government was very unpopular, he  voted for a de-facto non-confidence motion put forward by the Progressive Conservatives that brought down the NDP.

I'm not sure where he went politically, if anywhere, after that.

Edit to add: nope there were others. Two other New Democratic MLAs joined Sidney Green in leaving the NDP for their Progressive Party.  Bud Boyce who was first elected in 1969. He joined the cabinet in 1974. He died in 1984.  And Ben Hanuschak, who was also first elected in 1966 and was appointed to the cabinet in 1970 after being the Speaker for the first year or so of the Schreyer government.

Sid Green, Bud Boyce and Ben Hanuschak were all urban New Democrats representing Winnipeg ridings, then there was also Sam Uskiw who represented the rural riding of Lac du Bonnet. He was an NDP MLA from 1966-1986. He was a minister under both the Schreyer and Pawley governments, but expressed dissatisfaction with the closeness between the NDP and the labour movement and considered joining the Progressive Party in 1981.

In 1986 he retired and endorsed the Progressive Conservative candidate in his riding in that election. He then joined the provincial Progressive Conservatives and became a fundraiser for them, and according to Wiki: There was a period when he may have been the party's largest personal donor.

So, at least 7 of the 28 New Democrats who were elected in the 1969 election or a subsequent byelection before the 1973 general election left the NDP, with most (or all) joining a more right wing party.

On the flip side, you might note that as the Manitoba Legislature has had 57 seats for a long time, the NDP was elected to a minority government in 1969 with 28 ridings. They secured a majority when the Liberal MLA for St Boniface, Laurent Desjardins, crossed the floor to first sit as an independent within the NDP caucus and then as a New Democrat in 1971.  Interestingly, he is one of the few New Democrats who was a member of the party at one level but not at all levels as the NDP allowed him to become a provincial New Democrat while remaining a federal Liberal.

Desjardins was a funeral director (or undertaker) who later became the Health Minister. Some might think that is a conflict of interest.   For Hatman, he also played football with the Montreal Alouettes in the 1940s.

Back to British Columbia, but later than this time period, Jim Doyle the former Mayor of Golden in the Kootenays was elected as a New Democrat in 1991 in the riding of Columbia River-Revelstoke and reelected in 1996 but was defeated in the wave election in 2001, came back into politics as the President of the provincial Liberal Columbia River-Revelstoke riding association.  Not really sure what happened with him, he was actually apparently well liked by most everybody.

On the other side though is the rather interesting situation with the NDP further up north in the Cariboo.  All three New Democrats who have represented this area were originally with other parties. Dave Zirnhelt, who was elected in a byelection in 1989, one of four New Democrats who won previously Social Credit seats during the VanderZalm years (along with Elizabeth Cull, Tom Perry and Bill Barlee) had at one time been a federal Liberal.

Bob Simpson who was elected in 2005 for the NDP in Cariboo North ran for the Provincial Liberal nomination in that riding in 1996.  He was removed from the NDP caucus in 2010. He is, generally regarded as highly intelligent, but not exactly a team player.  He's been the mayor of Quesnel since 2014.

Finally, Charlie Wyse who was elected in 2005 for the NDP in Cariboo South had been a longtime Williams Lake city councilor (23 years) and for much of that time was identified as a supporter of the Federal Progressive Conservatives.

[Benjamin Frank]

I see that it is still verboten to even mention the name of the final leader of the CCF!

Hazen Argue.  Did he really quit the NDP?  I think he's more like the Progressive Conservatives in the early 2000s who joined the Liberals arguing that after their party merged with the Canadian Alliance they didn't have a party any longer.  To be sure, he did run against Tommy Douglas for the leadership of the new NDP, though the result was never in doubt.

This is the Wiki source on Hazen Argue winning the CCF leadership.  The Windsor Star, August 13 1960.

"The C.C.F has picked a new leader after much internal dissension at the Regina convention. He is Hazen Argue M.P for Assiniboia since 1945 who has been the party leader in the Commons.

The masterminds of the C.C.F Council tried to head off his accession to the leadership. The C.C.F is to merge with the new party now in formation. The thought was that choice of a permanent C.C.F leader would give him an inside track for the leadership of the new party.

That may be the effect. It will be difficult for the new party to reject Mr Argue without great offence to his supporters in the present C.C.F.  It would mean that a farmer, as Mr Argue is when not busy with politics would be the new party's leader, rather than a Labor man or someone more closely associated with Labour.

This really is the clue to this dissension at the convention. That was only patched up when when it became evident the majority of delegates wanted a leader picked and to have Mr Argue elected to the post.

Premier T.C Douglas was a key man in this decision. If the new party should be dominated by Labor this would react against Mr Douglas in agrarian Saskatchewan. It is quite proper he should have had this influence.  After all, he is the only one with anything to offer the new party in the way of present power through office. Majority of the C.C.F M.P's also looking to their own future, supported Mr. Argue.

Mr. Argue is a young man who has quickly gained political stature.  Only 24 when first elected, he then possessed a good speaking voice though a bit awkward in his eloquence. He has done his political homework, has become a first-rate debater and parliamentarian. He is both intelligent and tough in debate.

He is following two eminent predecessors, the late J.S Woodsworth and Mr M J Caldwell. Mr Woodsworth, the C.C.F's first leader, was a man of unexcelled character, absolute sincerity and unusual unselifshness.

Mr. Coldwell, of course, was one of Canada's finest Parliamentarians, a man of broad humane views, with an exceptional ability to express them. One could, and frequently did, reject the ideas offered by Mr. Woodsworth and Mr Caldwell but only an inveterate partisan questioned their motives.

Mr. Argue, if he measures up to them, can make a real contribution to public life. That will be so even if he never achieves power through victory at the polls."

Interestingly, this was in the news section and not in the editorial section, for people who falsely believe that newspapers had never combined news with editorials until recently.

[Benjamin Frank]

As I posted earlier, the Liberals won 160 ridings and lost another 20 ridings by less than 10%.  That combined is less than the 184 ridings they won in 2015.  So, what are the ridings that the Liberals won in 2015 but lost by more than 10% in 2021?  I don't know all of them, but I believe these are all of them outside of Ontario and Quebec.

1.Kelowna-Lake Country
2Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon
3.Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge
4.Calgary Centre
5.Regina-Wascana
6.Kildonen-St Paul
7.Winnipeg Centre
8.Fundy Royal
9.New Brunswick Southwest
10.Tobique-Mactaquac
11.Cumberland-Colchester
12.West Nova
13.Nunavut

I imagine there would be a fair number in Quebec, as the Liberal's main opponent in Quebec in 2015 was the NDP, while in 2021 (and 2019) it was the Bloc. 

[Benjamin Frank]

While this doesn't alter the overall trend in Northern Ontario to the Conservatives, it does explain a little of why the Conservatives won Kenora so handily.

Elections Canada admits fault for First Nations voting issues
Elections Canada says ‘confusion’ between their staff and three First Nation communities in the Kenora area lead to 1,600 community members not being able to vote on the night of the 2021 federal election.

https://www.kenoraonline.com/articles/elections-canada-admits-fault-for-first-nations-voting-issues