MI-NYT/Siena: Peters +1

[SenatorCouzens]

There is truth to the "invisible man" critique of Peters -- he isn't much of a known quantity in Michigan.

James has a lot of money and runs decent ads. James is more charismatic than Peters, and much more telegenic than Peters.

Michigan is politically divided and, looking at various races the last several decades, not particularly devoted to the Democratic party.

That being said, I don't see how James overcomes the national environment. If this was 2016, I believe he would win.

If Trump pulls it together and turns the presidential race into a 4 point race or so, then I will be looking very closely at this race.

[SenatorCouzens]

This poll is going to be excellent for Peters' fundraising. Twitter is going nuts the past few hours rallying people to donate to his campaign.

Admittedly I don't know what the hard numbers look like, but I do not believe Peters (unlike other potentially endangered incumbents *cough cough* Lindsey Graham) has a problem with money.

TV and radio are pretty well saturated with James and Peters ads and have been for some time.

[SenatorCouzens]

I guess Michigan is full of PQG split-voters?

Huh.   Who knew?

Would you vote for James if you lived in MI?

Probably, yes -- I've never voted for a Democratic Senate candidate.  My ideal scenario is a Biden presidency with a GOP Senate.  

GOP Senate and Biden presidency is an under-rated best case scenario for Republicans. It stops any Biden legislation, especially more extreme policies like attempting to expanding the size of the Supreme Court (I believe this fails regardless) or adding states (I believe this could happen). It would also force deals on filling lower court vacancies or a Supreme Court opening and keep the judiciary conservative.

Also, it rids the party of an increasingly toxic Trump and sets the GOP up for a good 2022 midterm.

The path to a GOP Senate and Biden presidency is very narrow, but it's possible and an interesting result. However, I think it's just as probable that the dam breaks and several GOP incumbents go down and give the Dems a large Senate majority.