For years, the Electoral college was presumed to favor Republicans (example Bush's 2000 win in the EC but loss in the popular vote). But that may have changed.
Not surprisingly, an in depth analysis of partisanship changes from 1960 to 2004 shows the study decline in the number of close or battleground states. Looking forward to 2008 only 13 states are likely to be significant battleground states. One new battleground state is predicted for 2008, VA, while AR, AZ, ME, OR, TN, WA, and WV drop off the list. Somewhat surprisingly, Kerry did better in battleground states in 2004 than he did in the rest of the country.
If that Democratic result holds, it would predict a Democratic victory in the Electoral College in a 50:50 election by 284-254. While a 4% Democratic win would yield a 321-217 Electoral votes, a 4% Republican margin of victory woud yield only a 300-238 win. Thus suggesting the Democrats now have an advantage in the battlegound states.
See:
http://www.fairvote.org/media/perp/presidentialinequality.pdf
