Best chance for a 269 to 269 Tie in the Electoral College?

[zorkpolitics]

I am assuming this election will be much closer and Obama will lose most of the "Bush states" he won in 2008.
There are several scenarios where no candidate gets 270 EV and the election goes to the House.
Assuming Romney wins the McCain states, which do you think is most likely (or do you have another scenario):

1. Romney: Wins AZ, IN, FL, NC, OH, NH, NV but not IA not VA, CO
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=jNp

2. Romney: Wins AZ, IN, FL, NC, OH, NH, VA, but not CO, NV, IA and loses 1 EV in NE
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=jNq

3. Romney: Wins IN, FL, NC, OH, IA, PA, and 1 EV in ME, but not NV, CO, VA, NH, AZ
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=jNt

4. Romney: Wins AZ, IN, FL, NC, OH, IA  and WI, but not VA, CO, NV, NH
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=jNu

5. Neither Romney nor Obama get 270 EV, because a "faithless" elector votes for someone else