Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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The other issue, already mentioned in thread but it makes sense to bring it up in this post as well, is that the Ukrainian military has also undergone significant reforms in recent years. One of the big questions before the war was whether this had been successful or not, and if so to what extent: no one really knew. Some observers were quietly bullish, most were pessimistic. It is undoubtedly a massive failure of Russian military intelligence that even the possibility that Ukrainian military reforms might have borne fruit was entirely absent from pre-war strategic calculations.

This is a very underrated point. The Ukrainian army's performance in 2014 was pathetic, it gave up Crimea without fighting a shot, with many of their forces defecting to the Russians, and they had a lot of trouble fighting against the DPR/LPR separatists, taking months to push them back towards Donetsk and Luhansk, and then promptly got rolled when the Russian "little green men" showed up. Clearly a lot has been done since then by the Ukrainians to improve that the Russians didn't account for.

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In a WSJ editorial, Walter Mead makes the point I and Red Velvet have been making for some time about China's stance and Western sanctions, namely that the non-Western world is closer to China than it is to the West on this issue. I don't know much about this author but he reviews for Foreign Affairs, which generally dislikes China, and the WSJ consistently dislikes China.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-west-vs-rest-of-the-world-russia-ukraine-dictators-south-america-asia-africa-11647894483

As the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war ricochet through global politics, the West has never been more closely aligned. It has also rarely been more alone. Allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization plus Australia and Japan are united in revulsion against Vladimir Putin’s war and are cooperating with the most sweeping sanctions since World War II. The rest of the world, not so much.

In a development that suggests trouble ahead, China’s basic approach—not endorsing Moscow’s aggression but resisting Western efforts to punish Russia—has garnered global support. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa blamed the war on NATO. Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, refused to condemn Russia. India and Vietnam, essential partners for any American strategy in the Indo-Pacific, are closer to China than the U.S. in their approach to the war.

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Biden is expected to be at the NATO summit in Brussels and will also join a conference of EU leaders later this week. The Biden Administration and EU just announced a new round of sanctions. It's awesome to see the Transatlantic Alliance restored and acting in concert against a tyrant. Zelenskyy will also attend the NATO meeting virtually.

It's fitting that your post is next to mine. Maybe this is the "Cold War" of the 21st Century, the West against a loose coalition of "Everyone Else", loosely led by China, and not always agreeing with each other, but generally united in their suspicion and dislike of Western imperialism and chauvinism.

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IFX reports that Russia will demand that countries it has labeled “unfriendly” must pay in RUB for Russian gas.  

It seems Italy is "not inclined" to pay RUB for Russian gas.  If Russia and Italy do not back down this will lead to Italy w/o Russin gas.  I guess the good news is Spring is coming soon so Italy's demand for Russian gas will be lower.

It seems like this might be the push some EU countries need to stop buying Russian gas. This could very well end up being an "own goal" for Russia if countries like Germany and Italy refuse.

It's only an own goal if Italy and Germany can stop buying Russian gas and suffer only mild effects. That would be like the Confederacy enacting a cotton embargo at the start of the Civil War to pressure the European powers into recognition only to find that they could not move the market like they thought and that they had missed the opportunity to sell as much cotton as possible before the Union blockade became effective. However, if Italy and Germany suffer acute fuel shortages and substantial surges in energy costs, then they could be forced back onto Russian gas and then it would be a win for Russia at least in the short term.

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To be fair, I think the Continental System is actually a reasonably apposite comparison.

I think the Continental System would be a better comparison if countries tried to cut off China or the USA; the UK at that time dominated the seas and was the world leader in industrial manufacturing capacity. Russia's main economic contribution to the world is in one sector, granted it is critical (energy), but since it is just one the Western world will probably find ways to adapt, like how European industrial powers adapted to the loss of Confederate "King Cotton" during the American Civil War.

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If they can't show how any specific bit of information is wrong, and they aren't posting any information of their own, then they can go suck eggs.

This is nonsense. Reports about a war from belligerents are always questionable due to the clear bias and interests of the reporting party. They are expected to produce reports exaggerating their wins and downplaying their losses. Any thinking person should automatically question their reliability. The burden of proof is on the Ukrainians (or the Russians) to prove that they are telling the truth, not on us to refute them.

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Uncle Joe did it again, he used the w-word.

I wonder when Putin will retaliate by declaring publicly that Joe is an illegitimate president because he stole the 2020 election from Trump. This could quite possibly cause Trump to jump to Putin's side again.

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Now that a peace deal where Ukraine will swear neutrality and possibly give up more has become a realistic possibility, it will be interesting to see how this thread reacts. If posters turn against the agreement and advocate for continued war, then it shows that they were warmongering from the start and that they are willing to fight for Western interests down to the last Ukrainian man.

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Lavrov visited Beijing before and now he is visiting Delhi. At least the US is staying rhetorically consistent for now, we'll see if US actions back up their words and they reduce their engagement with India, or geopolitics/realpolitik win out and they hypocritically forgive India for this transgression to keep them in the envisioned anti-China alliance. India's actions in response to the conflict are still largely the same as China's, and India is even exploring buying Russian oil in INR to circumvent the SWIFT sanctions.

U.S. Criticizes India on Russia Talks as Lavrov Visits Delhi

The U.S. and Australia criticized India for considering a Russian proposal that would undermine sanctions imposed by America and its allies, showing a deepening rift between the emerging security partners as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to Delhi for talks.

“Now is the time to stand on the right side of history, and to stand with the United States and dozens of other countries, standing up for freedom, democracy and sovereignty with the Ukrainian people, and not funding and fueling and aiding President Putin’s war,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told reporters in Washington on Wednesday. She called reports of the arrangement “deeply disappointing,” while adding that she hadn’t seen details.

Dan Tehan, Australia’s trade minister who also spoke at the briefing, said it was important for democracies to work together “to keep the rules-based approach that we’ve had since the second world war.”

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Here's some lighthearted news on the energy side, China has re-sold US LNG shipments to Europe for profit, taking advantage of the spread between European and Asian natural gas prices caused by the war. We're most likely buying more gas from Russia at a discount to make up for the shortfall. As a Chinese person working in financial services, I heartily approve of this. We take advantage of a market arbitrage and make money with no risk, win!

China Sells U.S. LNG to Europe at a Hefty Profit

China resold several U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments to Europe, a rare move by the world’s top buyer that highlights how sky-high prices are rerouting trade flows.

Unipec, the trading arm of China’s state-owned Sinopec, sold at least three LNG cargoes for delivery through June to ports in Europe via a tender that closed late last week, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. The shipments will load from Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass export facility in Louisiana, where Sinopec has a deal to purchase LNG, they said, requesting anonymity to discuss private details.

European natural gas rates surged to a record high last week on fears that the war in Ukraine will curb flows from top supplier Russia. The rally prompted Unipec’s traders to turn away from the lower-priced Chinese market, even as Beijing demand its importers secure more fuel amid concerns over wartime disruptions.

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India becoming the center of diplomatic activity since the conflict started which places India as the swing great power of the current and most likely future geopolitical conflict.

I think the Indians have played this well so far. They're doing a good job of playing both sides taking advantage of the fact that they could credibly join either side, unlike China for whom it would be a craven surrender to join the West. I disagree with the (Western) news articles that say India is put in a tough spot by Russia, on the contrary, India is putting the West, particularly the USA in a tough spot. The USA has to choose between making a stand on principle and ruin its decades long plans of using India to fight China, or bowing to geopolitics and accommodating India, and thus losing its moral credibility on the issue and handing China a win.

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As several posters above have said - it’s understandable to be absolutely enraged by this - I’d be more worried if you weren’t (*cough* compucomp). I’ll confess where there are some days I want NATO planes to fly over the border and destroy as much Russian equipment in UA as possible. But in the current world order, that’s just not an adult or acceptable move. Escalation is a dangerous game, and not one the West is willing to play with Putin.

I'll largely hold my tongue on this because if I don't I'm in danger of getting banned due to "genocide denial" or something like that, but I read the update on CNN and saw that there were "20 bodies of civilian men" found on the street in Bucha. There were probably around 20 people that got shot dead in Chicago yesterday.

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Viktor Orban, having won a landslide victory, says that Zelensky was an "opponent" he defeated in his campaign. He now has a huge mandate of the Hungarian people behind him. How long can the EU "united front" last? Don't they need unanimous consent to do anything?

Hungary's authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban, has declared victory in the country's parliamentary elections, clinching a fourth consecutive term in power.

Orban's Fidesz party had a commanding lead with 71% of the votes counted, Hungary's national elections board said on Sunday evening.

The election campaign was dominated by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which put Orban's lengthy association with Russian President Vladimir Putin under scrutiny. In his victory speech, Orban called Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky one of the "opponents" he had to overcome during the campaign.

Hungary is heavily reliant on Russian energy and Orban has dodged opportunities to condemn Putin's assault on its neighboring state, complicating the EU's efforts to present a united front against him.