SC feels a lot like TX-2018 where people wouldn't believe that it was close until they saw it with their own eyes. Even though now it doesn't seem that farfetched, polling indicates its close, and Graham's behavior seems to confirm that.
Meanwhile, with the insane amount of $ that Gideon and Harrison have raised, do we think that they're also just doing better because they've been flooding the airwaves too?
I don't know about SC being similar to TX in 2018. While Graham does seem to be widely reviled, and an especially good target because he animates the left and the right is largely apathetic about him, I can't get over the racial politics of South Carolina.
I just do not see how Harrison is able to assemble a coalition that gets him 48% of the vote in SC. I think the only spoiler/outside chance is if the Constitution party nominee somehow eats up a sizable share of the vote -- 5-10%, leaving Harrison an outside shot with mid-40% at winning.
The racial politics are changing. Largely white areas like the Charleston suburbs are becoming less Republican. Perhaps instead of Texas, it’s better to think of SC as the next Georgia: Solid black Democratic vote, increasingly less Republican white suburban vote, and rapid population growth concentrated in (sub)urban areas. True, there’s no Atlanta metro equivalent or anything. But over time, as the state continues to grow and change, I can see it being the next state in the sun belt to fall after AZ/TX/GA/NC. As for now, Harrison’s shot depends on a solidly Democratic national environment (looks likely) coupled with an energized anti-Graham vote in the state along with a Republican vote that largely ranges from apathetic to antipathetic towards Graham. That ad of Graham bashing Trump and praising Biden sums it up: Diehard MAGA people don’t trust Graham, and Democrats hate him for his sucking up to Trump. Could be a perfect storm.
I don't know if it will "fall," but SC will probably tighten over the next few years. Graham is a good target for Democrats here. Harrison is running a VERY smart campaign here. He has made it all about his inspiring personal story and Graham's flip-flopping. Graham is uniquely weak because a lot of the hard right voters in Greenville and Spartanburg view him as a RINO. The moderate suburbanites near Charleston, Fort Mill, Greenville, and Columbia who once liked him now think he is too close to Trump. Harrison has exploited that weakness of Graham very well (including using clips from Tucker and Hannity in his TV ads to turn conservatives against Graham) in order to turn this into a competitive race. Making this a campaign about political positions would not succeed for a Dem here, and nationalizing the race would only help Graham. My final prediction is Graham by 3-5. I don't know how Harrison can get those last couple percent he would need to win. Watch for Greenville County (plenty of college ed whites AND staunch conservatives who think Graham is a RINO) to be closer than ever before (maybe around 44% Harrison).
