Lots could change of course, but at this point Obama looks like a safe bet for a second term for the following reasons:
1) By 2012 the economy should be in much better shape.
2) Obama is a phenomenal campaigner.
3) The GOP doesn't currently have a potential super decent candidate.
If assumptions #1 and #3 holds, then Obama wins. If the economy is still in the ruts he likely loses. If the GOP does find a very strong candidate - say if Patraeus runs and turns out to be as likeable as a political candidate as he is as a general - then we have a race.
1. Obama - 75%
2. Palin/Romney/Huckabee - 12%
3. Some other GOP candidate - 12%
4. An independent (Patraeus??) - 1%
I agree with this post, though I edited it slightly
