Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Chips]

I've read through these threads and I just can't wrap my head around what Putin's endgame is, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.

China-Taiwan in comparison seems simple.  China wants to annex Taiwan, the only question is whether or not they can do it militarily and/or handle the consequences.

But what does Russia want?  The consensus (sorry Andriy) seems to be that Ukraine will get slaughtered in a war with Russia. 

-Tear off more Ukrainian territory?  Make the Sea of Azov a Russian lake?  Most people I've read seem to think that's the most likely scenario.  But paradoxically, it would just make the rest of Ukraine even more anti-Russian and pro-NATO, and make the rest of NATO far more amenable to letting them join.

-Install a pro-Russian puppet in Kiev?  I can't imagine large chunks of Ukraine, especially in the West, supporting that.

-Annex Ukraine entirely?  The same thing goes for West Ukraine times 100.  Also, this seems by far the most likely scenario to bring NATO intervention.

Have Ukrainians ever heard of the concept of "addition by subtraction"?  As much as it might hurt their pride, maybe they should consider letting TRULY-pro-Russian areas of the country go, if it lets them salvage the rest of the country and takes the boundary-dispute roadblock out of NATO membership.  But that also might cause too much economic damage to the country - I certainly plead guilty to not being terribly educated on the matter.

Please don't come at me too hard, I usually read instead of posting, but I really wanted to hear the thoughts of people closer to the situation than I am.

I'm not saying this as an endorsement of Putin's actions but like it or not, Putin is just not going to accept Ukraine as a NATO member under any circumstances. Period.

I don't think Putin actually has any imminent plans to invade, I think he's just trying to catch some negotiations over Ukraine's future status as a NATO vs. non-NATO state.

[Chips]

I still have my doubts about Putin actually going through with invasion as an offensive thing. I think if Putin goes through with it, it'll be in response to us putting missile systems in Ukraine or something along those lines.

The talks this week were underwhelming, but I continue to have hope of potential future rounds of talks lead to serious efforts to a peaceful resolution on this issue.

[Chips]

I need argument to to prove ww3 isn’t going to happen because of this to calm my step siblings down any tips

As of now, I don't think it's likely anyone will be dumb enough to ensure MAD. Especially since Biden has re-affirmed a few times now that he doesn't have plans to send US troops to directly fight in Ukraine. It's still not even 100% certain that Putin will go through with invading but nuclear armageddon seems highly unlikely, even in the event Putin goes through with the supposed plan. That doesn't mean a Russian-Ukraine war couldn't have big consequences for both countries and the world at large in other ways, but at least we're unlikely to all become radioactive dust. WW3 and nuclear war are basically synonymous at this point.

Hope this helps somewhat.

[Chips]

Russia cannot fight a war that would involve mass civilian casualties. It cannot secure any land that it captures. It has no grounds it can make up to invade. It's propaganda output is weak and more unconvincing than usual.

It's just wanting attention.

This could easily be the case too. No one knows for certain what's about to happen. It could easily be a bluff, just as it could also easily be a reality in the making. We don't know, and won't until a decision is official which could be tomorrow or in 84 years for all we know.

[Chips]

My advice for those who are all panicky and stuff over the situation, Do your best to calm down and don't fret over something you have no control over and leave it to the guys that do have control over the situation. (A.K.A: Putin and to a lesser extent Biden and diplomats from all sides)

[Chips]

Based on multiple reports, it appears that the areas surrounding the contact line in the Donbas are experiencing the heaviest artillery barrage since 2014/2015. Columns of Russian mechanized units have also been spotted tonight less than five kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

At this point, I am pretty sure some sort of operation is commencing and we'll soon see further Russian incursion into Ukraine. I think the only question at this point is whether it's the full-on assault that could see Kyiv encircled or some sort of limited invasion that seizes Kharkiv, Mariupol', and degrades Ukrainian infrastructure in the interior with air and missile strikes. I don't see what the 'limited' option really does for Putin in the strategic sense. If his goal is regime change, I don't know if that'll cut it.

What happens if Zelensky is sitting on unaccounted Nukes and there are reports of a nuclear explosion?

So, there definitely are unaccounted for Soviet nukes, and it's possible there's at least one in Ukraine. Although it's much more likely that any such "lost" bomb would be buried deep under some farm where a Soviet plane crashed decades ago in a totally unusable state and without anybody but some aging bureaucrat in Moscow knowing anything about it. But the chances that Ukraine has managed to keep even one nuke under wraps while also maintaining it (weapons-usable isotopes have half lifes ranging between 14 years and 700 million years, among other considerations) without any IAEA inspectors catching on, are slim to none.

There's also a thorough, reliable, global network of nuclear explosion detectors. So, if there were reports of a nuclear blast, we'd know whether those reports were true almost instantly, although there's no doubt you could convince people otherwise (I knew someone who was extremely knowledgeable about military/warfare stuff who was convinced Russia might have tested a nuke in Syria without anyone noticing - it's not true.)

So, the most likely answer to your question is that the attack would immediately be widely blamed on Russia, which I'm sure Russia would deny, but beyond that, we'd be in totally unprecedented territory, and it's impossible to say.

The ultimate question I was asking is that if it happened tonight/in the morning over there, would I be getting up to a mushroom cloud tomorrow?

Crumpets explained it best. Biden and Putin aren't morons. They both know the worst of what might happen and want to do their best to avoid said worst outcome.

[Chips]

Boy have things sure gotten messy over the past 12 hours...I hope ordinary citizens on both sides are alright.

[Chips]

While I used to be able to sympathize with some of Putin's views on certain issues, now I just can't. Putin is 100% without a doubt a war criminal now and I do not sympathize with war criminals! I still don't support US troops in Ukraine and hope that both sides can find a solution rather quickly, which sadly looks pretty unlikely at this point.

Just thought I'd give my two cents.

[Chips]

While I used to be able to sympathize with some of Putin's views on certain issues, now I just can't. Putin is 100% without a doubt a war criminal now and I do not sympathize with war criminals! I still don't support US troops in Ukraine and hope that both sides can find a solution rather quickly, which sadly looks pretty unlikely at this point.

Just thought I'd give my two cents.

 I am trying to restrain myself from hyperbole in asking this, but on what possible issues could one agree with Vladimir Putin on? Serious question.

Bringing stability to your country and raising it up from being an Oligarch dominated disaster zone like Russia in the 1990s or the United States.

Hit the nail on the head.