2013 Elections in Germany

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Prediction

CDU 41.0
SPD 28.0
Grüne 15.5

Linke 4.5
FDP 4.5
Piraten 3.5
sonstige 3.0

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

ideological considerations, and the feeling that black-yellow doesn't stand for anything, are leading to me considering going Green.

Dear lord, don't do that! The Greens' anti-nuclear histrionics prove that they are nowhere near responsible enough to be in government.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

ideological considerations, and the feeling that black-yellow doesn't stand for anything, are leading to me considering going Green.

Dear lord, don't do that! The Greens' anti-nuclear histrionics prove that they are nowhere near responsible enough to be in government.

I agree on the nuclear issue, but that issue no longer being relevant in German politics makes it easier to stomach.

Who would you vote for? (You'll be 18, right?)

I'm giving my first vote to the SPD and am undecided on the second one (leaning Pirate)

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I'm undecided.

Never mind. (Why did I only see this now?) Don't worry, I'm not actually deciding whom to vote for on this basis, obviously.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

This kind of blind extrapolation means nothing, of course, but…

41% CDU/CSU
29% SPD
12% Greens
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  4% Others

42% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
15% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  3% Pirates
  5% Others

47-45 majority for the current government.

30 July 2013
43% CDU/CSU
18% Greens
15% SPD
10% Left
  6% FDP
  2% Pirates
  6% Others

That'd be pretty hilarious.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

But as popular as he is, he still can't push the The Greens to first place...

Well, when you have two major left-wing parties and one major right-wing party, that does tend to be difficult.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

The union to create Baden-Württemberg in 1952 was necessary, because the border between the occupation zones was so problematic.

That was the official excuse for the blatant Württembergian power grab, yes.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

"Each family is different. And of special importance to us" (CDU - together successful).

Doesn't look like a very 'different' family to me.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

http://www.wahl-o-mat.de/bayern2013

FDP 73,3 %
PIRATEN 68,9 %
SPD 66,7 %
DIE LINKE 66,7 %
GRÜNE 64,4 %
FREIE WÄHLER 60 %
CSU 51,1 %
NPD 38,9 %

Except for the FDP (lol) this about matches up with what I would have guessed.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

ERvND, the thing is, you are using like seven or eight data points. You know what else you can prove with that amount of data?


This kind of hyperextrapolation of political trends is pretty silly.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

http://www2.fr-online.de/bundestags-wahlhelfer/index.php

Here's a federal test; not sure I like it but fwiw...

62% Greens
48% Left
38% SPD
34% FDP
21% CDU/CSU

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Left loses one of its random rural seats, to the CDU of course. Suhl - Schmalkalden-Meiningen - Hildburghausen.

Altmark, too.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

My town is in!
Kronau: Erststimme CDU 54,9 (+5,1); SPD 20,6 (+1,5); FDP 2,8 (-8,2); GRÜNE 5,5 (-4,5); DIE LINKE 3,4 (-3,9); PIRATEN 2,6 (+2,6); NPD 1,8 (-1,1); REP 1,6 (+1,6); AfD 5,5 (+5,5); FREIE WÄHLER 1,3 (+1,3)
Zweitstimme CDU 49,5 (+9,7); SPD 18,3 (+1,2); FDP 4,9 (-13,0); GRÜNE 6,8 (-1,2); DIE LINKE 4,4 (-4,2); PIRATEN 2,5 (+0,2); NPD 1,6 (+0,2); REP 1,1 (-0,9); AfD 7,1 (+7,1); FREIE WÄHLER 1,2 (+1,2); others 2,5 (-0,4)

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

CDU gains Freiburg from SPD

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

So do you guys think the FDP is gone for good or will they make a comeback?

I'm leaning towards the former option -- as someone posted, they still got something like 2% loan-vote this time, and with the CDU so close to an absolute majority, those people should theoretically go back to the CDU.