Who is likely to be the next Pope?

[Battista Minola 1616]

This question is almost always being asked within the Church, even though it's seen as kind of a tacky one, and the plausible answers are always in some amount of flux, but names that have been in the mix in the past few years include Luis Antonio Tagle (Filipino, similar to Francis but "nicer"/not as much of a grumpy old man, former Archbishop of Manila now heading one of the two sections of the Dicastery for Evangelization in Rome; hasn't had as high a profile in that role as many had expected, though), Matteo Zuppi (Italian, Archbishop of Bologna, head of the Italian episcopal conference, occasionally sent on papal diplomatic missions), Peter Turkson (Ghanaian, Archbishop of Cape Coast and then head of a succession of sociopolitical dicasteries and think tanks in Rome, widely respected on a few different levels but apparently a pretty toxic boss/administrator), Malcolm Ranjith (Sri Lankan, Archbishop of Colombo, has "peripheries" cred but conservative enough not to spook the people who already hate Francis), Robert Sarah (Guinean, Archbishop of Conakry and then head of a succession of sociopolitical dicasteries, then, finally, head of the former Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments; his credibility at this point is basically trad wishcasting but up until the past couple of years he was a genuine strong possibility), and Victor Manuel Fernandez (Argentinian, Archbishop of La Plata, not yet a cardinal but will almost certainly become one imminently because he's just been appointed DDF Prefect, very close to Francis and has in fact ghostwritten some of his major teaching documents). Fernandez is the youngest of these people at sixty, Sarah the oldest at seventy-eight.

The one name I think is really missing from this post (to not swell the list with people like Ouellet, Parolin, O’Malley, etc) is Peter Erdo of Hungary, another conservative favorite and probably the conservative frontrunner at this point.

My father also talks a lot about Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, and he'd certainly be quite an interesting pick (young by these standards, from sub-Saharan Africa, seems decently politically involved in one of the most unstable and suffering countries in the world) but I can't tell if he is an actual papable or just a quirk my dad has.