Italy 2019 by Camera single-member constituencies.

[Battista Minola 1616]

This is a project I've been working on for some time, beginning even before I joined Talk Elections.

Basically analyzing the results of the 2019 European election in Italy by current Camera single-member constituencies (although they of course aren't used for European elections), which have the benefit of giving a greater and more uniform level of detail than provinces, and a much more uniform and much less noisy level of detail than municipalities.

A couple things before we start:
- I wasn't able to calculate the exact results for some constituencies in large cities which are split among more than one - precisely Rome, Palermo and Bari, because their websites suck. I applied a municipality-wise uniform swing to get an idea but in practice I didn't bother to colour anything where I felt iffy about the margin of error
- I approximated things at one decimal point and then forgot about the raw results (bad decision in hindsight, but I'm not going to start this thing from scratch again) which may give slight imprecisions in composite maps. Maybe I could also tell you the expected order of magnitude of said imprecisions... but that assumes I actually followed my Numerical Analysis lessons
- In general I think my maps will not be particularly high quality compared to other works I've seen on here (especially by Al; he's just masterful with this stuff)

I'd like to receive some preliminary feedback before going on with my first map, which will inevitably be Winning Party List by Constituency.



EDIT: A big thanks to MRCVzla for helping me filling in the gaps and imprecisions.

[Battista Minola 1616]

- snipped -

Great stuff!
To be honest, Palermo and Bari don't bother me that much. Rome is a sore spot though.
I have approximately zero intention to repeat the process again for Senate constituencies, since it's going to be boring as hell and a doublet for the most part.
I am not going to consider SVP part of any coalition, but I consider the Aosta Valley regional list together with PD.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Anyway, this is the Winning Party List by Constituency map.



Lega
Partito Democratico
Movimento 5 Stelle
Forza Italia
Südtiroler Volkspartei

[Battista Minola 1616]

My thoughts:

1) Wow, Lega won a landslide. They even won seats in southern Italy.

2) Who still votes for Berlusconi's party and why are all his diehard loyalists in northeast Sicilly?

3) What is the white party in the Rome suburbs? FdI?

1) Well yes, it also had a fairly optimized distribution of the vote.

2) Not many people, but they exist, especially in the South. The province of Messina is historically a pretty right-wing area, and there is some local candidates/administrators thing involved but right now I don't remember the details. I should note that the other rural constituencies in Northern Sicily all had (relatively) very high shares for FI as well.

3) Please read my original post, especially the part where I say that I didn't bother to colour anything where I was iffy on the margins.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Excellent work, thank you!

I'm genuinely baffled that PD won the Reggio Calabria constituency. This is the most right-wing part of Calabria, which is a pretty right-wing region these days. It's the only PD win anywhere in the South (and, aside from that one Sardinia constituency, the only win outside of the Red Regions and big cities). What happened there? Did Lega, FdI and FI split the right-wing vote almost evenly so PD won a narrow plurality?

Thank you!

They didn't exactly split the right-wing vote evenly, but FI and FdI still took away enough of it combined with a small but real overperformance by PD in the city of Reggio Calabria and even in some of the surrounding municipalities to have a PD plurality. To be fair right now the most right-wing part of Calabria is probably Vibo Valentia/Gioia Tauro (notice the two Lega constituencies, but also FdI took like 17% in the Vibo Valentia one).
Palermo Centre and Bari Centre may have been won by PD but I left them blank because of the reasons explained in the OP. It didn't win any constituency in Naples though, because M5S was just so effing strong - though it sure as hell won neighbourhoods such as Vomero and Chiaia in a landslide. There's something sweet and sour about BourgEoiS Naples voting PD, ProLetariAn Naples voting M5S, and the right-wing being either crickets or very splintered.

[Battista Minola 1616]

To help something, in the data I have from Rome (corrected because the results differs a little bit between the Rome comune and the Ministry of the Interior sites), of the 11 districts, the PD (and the csx) leads in the 4 centrical districts that won in 2018 (Trionfale, Montesacro, Ardeatino and Gianicolense), PD also leads (with a margin of almost 5000 votes to Lega) in the Tuscolano district where M5S was the most voted in 2018, in the coalition part depends how counts Sinistra list with Csx, without them Cdx leads with +700 votes.

In the other constituencies around the city they were lead by both Lega and the center-right.

Both in the central districts of Palermo and Bari the M5S leads as a party list, but in coalitions, in Bari won the center-right meanwhile in Palermo Centro leads the center-left.

Thank you!

None of that is surprising except for the contrast between Palermo Centro and Bari (like, what?).

[Battista Minola 1616]

I updated and filled the gaps in my first map with the data contributed for by MRCVzla and hope to do so for the others as well.

And with this we can fully say that the 2019 party map actually doesn't look that much different from the 2018 coalition map, except for some semi-central constituencies in big cities, the epic switch from M5S to Lega of basically almost all the South-Centre fringe plus much of Apulia, and some random bits otherwise, precisely: Bolzano ugh (thanks, SVP!), Aosta being Aosta, Collegno, Forlì (sigh), the lol tier PD pluralities in Cagliari and Reggio Calabria, and the LOL tier FI plurality in Barcellona Pozzo di Gotto / rural NE Sicily.
Of course this will likely look quite different when calculating results by coalitions, where M5S stands to lose a lot. Speaking of which, I have a surprise map to show before I'll go on with the 'proper' coalitions.

[Battista Minola 1616]

The PD getting trounced across the board yet somehow managing to top the poll in Reggio is genuinely hilarious.

Well it got trounced across the board in a relative sense. If we repeated the election today PD would likely take the same share of the vote and actually a bit less but carry more areas of any type because Lega has ceded a lot of right-wing vote to FdI.

Excluding M5S for the moment, did the "right" coalition beat the "left" coalition in any of the major North Italian cities such as Genoa, Turin, and Milan?

Turin was carried by the centre-left by ~3 points (0.5 excluding La Sinistra)
Genoa was carried by the centre-left by a hair (centre-right +2 excluding La Sinistra)
Milan was carried by the centre-left by ~4 points (2 excluding La Sinistra)
Bologna is self-evident.

[Battista Minola 1616]

As promised, a surprise: Conte I Coalition (Lega + M5S) performance by Constituency map.



#Populist (Conte I >50%)
#Elitist (Conte I <50%)
Südtiroler Volkspartei >50%

[Battista Minola 1616]

I should note that there's a huge glut of constituencies where Lega and M5S combined garnered more than 50% but less than their national average of 51.4% - including mine of La Spezia. If I coloured them in red as well there would be more red around Turin, around Milan, between Naples and Salerno, in random parts of the rural South, and in the Red Region fringe.

Also in the Rovereto and Gorizia constituencies I think Lega and M5S very narrowly beat Everyone Else if one excludes SVP from the calculations, but I kept them in red anyways because SVP was clearly in the opposition. I only coloured the two German-majority South Tyrol constituencies in grey and not in red because the fact that SVP easily cleared 50% makes them qualitatively different from anywhere else.

[Battista Minola 1616]

While doing coalition calculations I found out I must have screwed up some precinct in Western Genoa and that the Liguria - 03 constituency was apparently narrowly carried by Lega and not by PD - list map edited accordingly.

Anyway, I am not sure when I will post the coalition map. I think this thread will occupy a relatively long period of time.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Winning 'Ideological' Coalition by Constituency map:



Centre-right (Lega - FI - FdI)
Centre-left (PD - +E - EV - LS)
Movimento 5 Stelle
Südtiroler Volkspartei

You will excuse my (partial) choice of considering The Left as part of the centre-left coalition.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Yikes that is brutal

Apparently Naples is the strongest place for M5S? (and that one constituency in Sicilly)

The centre-left seems to have a stronger (or at least more varied) hardcore base, getting seats in what seems to be Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany; "downtown" Rome, Milan, Genoa and Turín.

Beyond that it's clean sweeps for the right everywhere

Siracusa bemuses me, but yeah, obviously the Naples area is ground zero for M5S. It took 52% of the vote alone in Napoli Ponticelli (eastern part of the city - right to the east of the two constituencies won by the centre-left) for goodness' sake!

I am thinking I will later add maps shaded by winning percentage, by the way, which will cast more light on the internal diversity of that clean sweep.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Winning Party List Revisited.



With percentages:

[Battista Minola 1616]

Winning 'Ideological' Coalition Revisited.



With percentages:

[Battista Minola 1616]

And to complete things, below I'll post maps shaded by percentage one party/coalition at a time.

I didn't bother with FdI because it took between 4% and 10% almost everywhere and the differences were mostly very granular, plus it didn't win any constituency so it feels 'secondary'. The same applies even more for all minor parties. And of course I didn't bother with SVP for... obvious reasons.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Lega:



Partito Democratico:



Movimento 5 Stelle:



Forza Italia:

[Battista Minola 1616]

Centre-right coalition:



Centre-left coalition:



Movimento 5 Stelle:

[Battista Minola 1616]

Excellent maps!!

Thank you!!

Colouring in the maps is the fun part, I could do it all day. Collecting the data instead...

[Battista Minola 1616]

Given the results, all Italian cities except Florence are now #cancelled. Sorry

Why? It's not the only place where the centre-left coalition won lmao.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Reviving this thread after so much time, and after another national election has happened, may seem very odd, but I've finally gotten around to doing something I had been curious about for a long time - maps of the swing from 2018 to 2019. The timing also means that we can compare it with the 2022 trends and see how much they had been anticipated by the European Parliament election.

I apologize in advance for the fact that the maps may have slight imprecisions, especially for the smaller parties, and for using the same colour scale for all of them (I didn't feel very inventive about finding new colours for parties which gained in some areas and lost in others).

[Battista Minola 1616]

Fairly predictable map - Lega gained the most in areas that constituted the "transition zone" between itself and M5S (Marche, Abruzzo, outer Lazio) and secondarily in some parts of the South and in Northern areas that were already very strong for Lega but maybe had a higher Five Star vote than usual (see Veneto); whereas it gained the least in metropolitan cores and/or typical strongholds of the left (although if you squint you can see the shift was a bit stronger in Rome even in the very centre - this may be related to FdI's performance) plus Trentino-Alto Adige.



Conversely, PD gained the most in metropolitan cores and/or Red Regions cities (that is the areas where it was already strongest in 2018, although this is emphatically NOT the case for Naples which is its own thing) plus some random areas in the South with big swings in particular in Sardinia. On the other hand, it had small gains in less urban and generally right-wing areas, which turned into actual losses in a few places like parts of Lombardy and notably in Umbria (which is also, turns out, the circoscrizione where PD lost the most from 2018 to 2022 - this trend is definitely real...), not to mention South Tyrol where the fact that SVP was allied with the centre-left in 2018 probably mattered.



This map is fairly interesting. To an extent, M5S lost more in areas where it was stronger and lost the least in areas where it was very weak (the smallest swings were all in metropolitan downtowns and in Upper Lombardy, where they simply didn't have as many votes to lose to begin with), but this was hardly the whole story - for instance, the party went from an almost identical performance in Tuscany and Veneto in 2018 to doing much better in the former in 2019, and this is another trend that would be confirmed in 2022. Above-average losses in Marche, Abruzzo and southern Lazio correspond as seen above to stronger gains for Lega, but those in Apulia may have also favoured FdI and those in Sicily (rofl) Forza Italia. All in all, one could say this already shows a more "left-wing" electorate for the party.

[Battista Minola 1616]

North of Molise, this map is kind of odd but in many ways still logical - smaller losses in the cores of Red Regions, where presumably FI had fewer votes to begin with, compared to large losses in the first Berlusconi base around Western Lombardy and "Greater Milan periurbanism", and in outer Lazio which as we've seen finally transitioned to being a Lega-friendly zone. South of Molise... LOL hahahahahahahahahahaha lmao rofl



This is reaching "movements are small enough they are often influenced by noise" territory, but we can see FdI had significant rebounds in various old post-fascist strongholds such as Lazio and the Abruzzo Appennine, parts of Apulia or southern Calabria (plus the Verona area, indubitably the most right-wing part of the country in conventional terms), while its gains were consistently small in Milan proper and in Tuscany. A special mention to Rome, which maintained its role as a great place for the far-right but had been so uniquely strong for FdI in 2018 - even compared to the rest of Lazio - that the party actually lost ground there.



This map is hilarious. Leaving aside a few areas with abnormal swings thanks to strong personal votes (Parma mayor Federico Pizzarotti in western Emilia, Bitonto mayor Michele Abbaticchio in Apulia, and also the alliance with the Team Kollensperger in South Tyrol), the general trend for More Europe is significant losses in its strongholds (educated metropolitan city cores) and tiny but consistent increases where it had been weak in 2018 (basically everywhere else). Not sure what the reason for this was, but it's great for trend-watchers.