Who's more likely to party switch?

[Battista Minola 1616]

Murkowski is younger and under more primary pressure, whereas I think Manchin is happy to sail into the sunset in 2024 so party switching would do nothing for him.

I think if Murkowski does leave the Republican party though it will be to sit as an Independent.

Just curious, does Murkowski have to caucus with anyone? Could you have a senate where literally no party had a majority?

Senators are not required to caucus with a party. Dean Barkley during his two months in the Senate in 2002 did not caucus with Democrats nor with Republicans. So that scenario is theoretically possible.

[Battista Minola 1616]

By the way, this is how I feel about this:

Lisa Murkowski has a 1 in [insert very large number] chance of party switching.
Joe Manchin has a 1 in [insert very large number squared] chance of party switching.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Murkowski is younger and under more primary pressure, whereas I think Manchin is happy to sail into the sunset in 2024 so party switching would do nothing for him.

I think if Murkowski does leave the Republican party though it will be to sit as an Independent.

Just curious, does Murkowski have to caucus with anyone? Could you have a senate where literally no party had a majority?

Senators are not required to caucus with a party. Dean Barkley during his two months in the Senate in 2002 did not caucus with Democrats nor with Republicans. So that scenario is theoretically possible.

It is theoretically possible, but it's worth noting that it would deprive that senator of committee assignments. I could see a scenario where a senator is kind of a free agent at the start of each Congress, but it seems unlikely anyone would choose to caucus as an independent as anything other than a temporary solution.

Yes, I know that the Senator would be deprived of committee assignments.