Kanye is out (UPDATE: Kanye is in again)

[Battista Minola 1616]

Going from previous third party bids, he would probably take a share of the Black vote that is between one third and one half of his share of the total vote. I'm not sure Kanye's race will have any influence. By the way he would likely win more Black Republicans than Black Democrats.

By the way, why is he doing this? Wasn't he a Trump stan? A third-party bid seems a good way to help Trump lose.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Going from previous third party bids, he would probably take a share of the Black vote that is between one third and one half of his share of the total vote. I'm not sure Kanye's race will have any influence. By the way he would likely win more Black Republicans than Black Democrats.

By the way, why is he doing this? Wasn't he a Trump stan? A third-party bid seems a good way to help Trump lose.

He's doing it to promote his new music and then will drop out. He's done this sort of thing before. I'm old enough to remember when Kid Rock ran for Michigan senate and then recused himself after dropping his album.

But Kid Rock talked about a hypothetical candidacy in July of the year before, not July of the election year. This sounds different, even though I'm now inclined to believe it's kind of a stunt.
And also, what does Elon Musk have to do with Kanye?

[Battista Minola 1616]

I hope you're correct, we can't afford another four years of Trump. But I don't think the black vote is as set in stone as most believe. Trump has become more detested in the cities and inner burbs recently, not less, with the rise of protests etc. so I think shy supporters are out there but no study or poll will detect it. This is PARTIALLY based on my gut feeling yes, which, not trying to toot my own horn, served me well in my 2016 predictions. I might also be completely wrong, no problem admitting that.

That being said, I also recall another poll from maybe a year back asking voters their mood on Trump, there were four or five options, the two negative options being "displeased" and "angry." Most white Dem voters chose angry but a slim majority of black Dem voters chose just displeased, not angry. Again, this leads me to believe there is more room to grow in the black community than conventional wisdom would suggest. I'll never vote for someone who makes me angry, but there's still a chance I'd vote for someone I merely displeased.

Well...
FiveThirtyEight had an article some months ago about how White Americans in both parties are much more motivated by anger than Black Americans. According to this article since 1980 White Democrats have always been more angry at the Republican candidate than Black Democrats.
This might have to do with social norms in the Black community, or with a feeling among Black people that the system is going to serve them unequally anyways so why be angry. I don't know if you are Black, you could have better knowledge about this.

[Battista Minola 1616]

This thread is like the collection of all the worst paranoias, memes and traditions of this forum all at once, it seems to me.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Source: https://www.etonline.com/kanye-west-is-serious-about-running-for-president-source-says-149208

Kanye West's presidential hopes are real, a source tells ET. Days after the 43-year-old rapper took to Twitter to share that he intends to run for president in 2020, a source close to him tells ET that the announcement wasn't a joke.

"Kanye is telling people close to him that his announcement of running for president is serious," the source says. [He] has been toying with the idea for a while and has been getting more and more into politics."

The source notes that West's wife, Kim Kardashian West, and his family and friends "fully support his dream to run for president," adding that they "feel he has more to offer than what people think."

"Kanye has talked to several high-powered friends over the years about his idea and has gotten their support behind closed doors," the source adds.

Game over dems

Ah well the famous reliability of anonymous sources...

[Battista Minola 1616]

Source: https://www.etonline.com/kanye-west-is-serious-about-running-for-president-source-says-149208

Kanye West's presidential hopes are real, a source tells ET. Days after the 43-year-old rapper took to Twitter to share that he intends to run for president in 2020, a source close to him tells ET that the announcement wasn't a joke.

"Kanye is telling people close to him that his announcement of running for president is serious," the source says. [He] has been toying with the idea for a while and has been getting more and more into politics."

The source notes that West's wife, Kim Kardashian West, and his family and friends "fully support his dream to run for president," adding that they "feel he has more to offer than what people think."

"Kanye has talked to several high-powered friends over the years about his idea and has gotten their support behind closed doors," the source adds.

Game over dems

Ah well the famous reliability of anonymous sources...

It wouldn't shock me if Kanye was serious about running for President.  But there's a big difference between being serious about a run for President and actually getting the proper infrastructure and ballot filings behind you. 

His biggest issue right now would likely be actually collecting the required physical signatures in each state. 

Yeah this is freaking overtime for collecting signatures.
One thing is certain: West has got an amount of free media coverage that only rivals Trump's.

[Battista Minola 1616]

https://twitter.com/OKelections/status/1283516745630781440

This sounds more serious than I thought, actually.

(Especially considering that Oklahoma is apparently the strictest state when it comes to third party qualifying for the ballot: the Democrat and the Republican were the only people on the ballot in 2004, 2008 and 2012)

[Battista Minola 1616]

https://twitter.com/OKelections/status/1283516745630781440

This sounds more serious than I thought, actually.

(Especially considering that Oklahoma is apparently the strictest state when it comes to third party qualifying for the ballot: the Democrat and the Republican were the only people on the ballot in 2004, 2008 and 2012)

Oklahoma is the easiest state to get on the ballot. All it takes is a $35,000 fee and a statement that your running.

So why are third parties so scarce on Oklahoma presidential ballots? Is it because they cannot or do not want pay thirty-five thousand dollars?