Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (user search)
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June 01, 2024, 01:38:33 AM
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  Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (search mode)
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Author Topic: Georgia's Very Own Megathread!  (Read 130931 times)
Battista Minola 1616
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Posts: 11,452
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

« on: September 03, 2020, 02:38:07 AM »

A few years back, I made this similar graph which at the time had projections for 2016-2024. Those projections were quite optimistic (in large part because there was heavy weight on the Obama years in terms of demographic shifts, and also because black voters specifically were better categorized as black by SoS prior to 2015 or so).

Nevertheless, I have updated and revised, adding the most recent two elections and including the 2017 1-Year ACS & 2019 Census as well.

For all previous elections/years, Census data and race breakdowns via SoS are used. Much like the SoS pivoted from an all-encompassing "Other" category in 2004 that made tracking specific non-white, non-black groups difficult until then, new registrants (i.e. disproportionately non-white registrants) for the past 5 years or so have been disproportionately categorized as "other" or "unknown". This plays a major role in why the black share of the electorate is smaller in 2016 & 2018 than in 2012 & 2014 (though not 100% of the cause) and why "other" jumps over the same period. This is also why the 2020-24 projections may seem "gentler" than some might expect.

Full-sized image


Does this mean that the "Other" category includes a sizable share of newly-registered Black voters?
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Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,452
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2020, 04:50:04 AM »
« Edited: September 03, 2020, 08:18:08 AM by 𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆 »


Yes (especially post-2015). While I haven't had unabashed statewide voter file access in some time, I feel fairly confident in simplistically approximating the "other" category as displayed here as 30% Latino, 25% black, 25% white and 20% Asian (not including other racial rounding errors). Also, it has seemed that over time, at least some of these improper individual racial classifications get corrected via other state data-sets, though I am not 100% sure about that. However, I'm not really looking to take an otherwise series of "official" data-sets and inject my own approximations into the mix.

However, if you want to do such in determining true black vote share from 2012 onward, then:

2012: 32.2%
2014: 30.7%
2016: 30.6%
2018: 31.9%

So based on these corrections, real black voter share in 2012 was still a tad larger than in 2018, and 2014's was identical to 2016's. This means that even prior to 2016, the "other" category still included a meaningful amount of both black and white voters, but circa 2015 is when SoS race classifications went off the deep end and large segments of all newly-registered voters began being classified as "unknown/other" by SoS).

I understand. Indeed it felt a bit strange to me that the official Black share of the vote never crossed 30% in those years. Thank you!

About the bolded part: any hope this gets solved in the near future?
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